News From the Grain Floor 4/09/13

Good morning

“Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s
money. It’s quite a characteristic of them.”
— Margaret Thatcher R.I.P

Overnight closes
• SK down ¾ at 1377 ¼
• CK up 2 ½ at 636
• WK down 2 ¾ at 709 ¾
• SMK down .30 at 393.00
• BOK up 2 at 4954
• RRK up 1.50 at 1559.50

Overnight volume
• SK 12,581
• CK 10,860
• WK 6,353
• SMK 5,750
• BOK 11,115
• RRK 22

Opening Calls
• Beans – mixed
• Corn – 2-4 higher
• Wheat – 2-4 lower
• Meal .50 – 1.50 lower
• Bean oil mixed
• Rice 1-2 higher

Crude, gold, and silver higher. Dollar lower

Nikkei down .002%
Hang Seng up .701%
Shanghai Index up .640%

China’s March CPI +2.1% expecting +2.5% and vs. +3.2% in February

China’s March PPI – 1.9% as expected vs. – 1.6% in February

Palm oil down 5. Chinese grain markets beans up 28 Yuan, corn down 11 Yuan, meal up 36 Yuan, palm up 72 Yuan , and bean oil up 62 Yuan

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘12/13 bean imports at 59.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 63.0 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 imports of 59.24 MMT

CNGOIC estimated 1st quarter soybean imports at 11.48 MMT vs. 13.27 MMT year ago due to Brazilian delays.

CNGOIC estimated China’s April bean imports at 4.8 MMT vs. March estimate of 3.8 MMT

CNGOIC estimated the average China bean imports per month between May – September at 5.7 MMT

Shanghai JC Intelligence data shows US corn imports are cheaper than China’s domestic supply .

JCI said China has bought 2.47 MMT of US new crop corn this year as of March 28th up 34% from a year ago

Story on Dow Jones this morning (Reuters had almost the same article yesterday) China bought over 700K tons of US SRW wheat for reserves over the past weeks . USDA has not confirmed yet.

CNGOIC data shows China’s government has sold 13.4 MMT of wheat from reserves this year through April 3rd vs. 2.7 MMT sold a year ago

1 more human death reported from the bird flu in China. Total human deaths are 8.

China’s New Hope Group (China’s largest animal feed producers ) said its feed business hurt by bird flu as chicken consumption drops

Chinese Industry analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 6-7 MMT (record) vs. ‘12/13 record of 5.2 MMT. Since February China has bought 1.3 MMT of US new crop corn

South Korea MFG bought 55K optional origin feed wheat for July shipment

Japan seeks 120,108 tons of milling wheat for May-July shipment Breakdown
• 19,845 tons of US winter white
• 32,877 tons of US HRW
• 22,373 tons of US dark northern spring
• 24,551 tons of Canada western red spring
• 20,462 tons of Australian white

India retenders for 6,300 Malaysian or Indonesian palm oil for April shipment

Iran will 130,000 tons of basmati rice from India each month in 2013 . Iran is using oil as payments for the rice.

CONAB estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 77.45 MMT vs. previous estimate of 76.1 MMT

CONAB estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 82.1 MMT

FC Stone estimated ‘12/13 Brail bean crop at 83.32 MMT vs. previous estimate of 83.0 MMT

Story on Reuters reads – Brazilian industry representatives said shipping delays in Brazil have caused buyers to cancel orders. China threatened to cancel up to 2 MMT of beans.
• SLC Agricola (one of Brazil’s largest producers) said they are not making any ‘13/14 crop forward sales
• 60% of the Brazilian bean crop was sold this year before planting had begun
• Brazil may have to discount price for next season

UkrAgroConsult 2013 Ukraine grain crop estimates
• Barley crop estimated at 7.75 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.30 MMT
• Corn crop estimated at 21.8 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 21.2 MMT
• Wheat crop estimated at 20.23 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.07 MMT
• ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 15.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 12.5 MMT

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 89-90 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90-92 MMT

Based on a Bloomberg survey CBOT 4th quarter average corn price estimated at $6.15 vs. average 1st quarter corn price of 711 ¼ Dec corn currently trading 530 ¾ .

Frost damage concerns for US wheat. Oklahoma State University said US HRW wheat crop has suffered some significant frost damage.

Today is the third day of the index fund roll. Roll ends on Thursday.

Weekly USDA crop progress report from yesterday afternoon
• Winter wheat condition 36% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 61% a year ago
• Winter wheat condition 30% poor to very poor unchanged from a week ago and vs. 10% a year ago
• Cotton planting 5% complete vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 7% 5 year average
• Rice planting 17% complete vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 20% 5 year average
• Rice emerged 9% vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 5% 5 year average
• Sorghum planting 19% complete vs. 16% a week ago, vs. 16% a year ago , and vs. 19% 5 year average
• Oats planting 58% complete vs. 32% a week ago vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 41% 5 year average
• Texas winter wheat condition 17% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 38% a year ago, 51% poor to very poor up 2% from a week ago and vs. 31% a year ago
• Kansas winter wheat condition 31% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 65% a year ago, 31% poor to very poor up 2% from a week ago and vs. 6% a year ago
• Oklahoma winter wheat condition 28% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 77% a year ago , 33% poor to very poor unchanged from a week ago and vs. 4% a year ago
• No national corn planting in this week’s report expecting they will report it next week
o Texas corn planting 55% vs. 5 year average of 53%
o Arkansas corn planting 25% vs. 5 year average of 47%
o Louisiana corn planting at 97% complete
o Missouri corn planting at 4% complete

Open interest as of yesterday’s close
• CK 374,256 open, down 26,997
• Total corn 1,302,392 open, down 3,177.
• SK 218,437 open, down 2,244
• Total beans 588,902 open, up 3,829
• SMK 94,335 open, down 11,268
• Total meal 264,745 open, down 3,898
• BOK 132,124 open, down 9,525
• Total bean oil 365,247 open, up 214
• WK 140,913 open, down 7,663
• WN 153,888 open, up 7,007
• Total wheat 442,552 open, up 1,330

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand and world production report. USDA will estimate US wheat crop in their May report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

Estimates for April ‘12/13 US Grain, Soybean Ending Stocks
• Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .824 BB, range of estimates are .625-.925 BB, March estimate was .632 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .989 BB
• Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .137 BB, range of estimates are .107-.160 BB, March estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .169 BB
• Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .700-.776 BB, March estimate was .716 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .743 BB

Estimates For April ‘12/13 World Grain, Soybean Carryout
• Corn (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 120.2 MMT, range of estimates are 116.0 – 125.0 MMT, March estimate was 117.48 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 131.16 MMT
• Beans (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 60.1 MMT, range of estimates are 58.21 – 62.0 MMT, March estimate was 60.21 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 55.25 MMT
• Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 178.6, range of estimates are 176.9-180.0 MMT, March estimate was 178.23 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 196.47 MMT

Estimates for April Argentina, Brazil Corn and soybean production
• Argentine corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.7 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0 – 26.5 MMT, March estimate was 26.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT
• Argentine beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.6 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-52.0 MMT, March estimate was 51.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT
• Brazil corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.9 MMT, range of estimates are 71.95-75.0 MMT , March estimate was 72.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT
• Brazil beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 81.0-83.7 MMT, March estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

Upcoming Reports/events
• Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their March data report. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts here are estimates for the March Malaysian Palm Oil data report
o March palm oil stocks average estimate 2.35 MMT (7 month low) vs. 2.44 MMT in February
o March palm oil production average estimate 1.28 MMT vs. 1.30 MMT in February
o March palm oil exports average estimate 1.34 MMT vs. 1.40 MMT in February
• Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s April 1st – 10th palm oil exports tomorrow
• Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
• Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
• USDA supply and demand and world crop production report comes out on tomorrow at 11 am CST
• China to auction 100K tons of rapeseed oil from reserves on Thursday.
• NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CDT
• Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
• Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
• CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg