News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I would like to wish all of you a healthy and happy New Year!

 

See attachment for New Year’s trading schedule.

 

Today is first notice day for Jan futures . Deliveries were

  • Beans 0 as expected
  • Meal 1 with the date at 7/02/13 expecting 0-1
  • Bean oil 1,447 with the date at 12/18/13 expecting 1,000-3,000

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 5 ¾ at 1303
  • CH down 1 at 422 ½
  • WH down 1 at 599 ½
  • KC WH down 1 ½ at 634 ¼
  • MWH down 1 ¼ at 629
  • SMH down 2.70 at 424.40
  • BOH up 16 at 3912
  • RRH down 4 at 1526

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 8,216
  • CH 4,103
  • WH 3,057
  • KC WH 801
  • MWH 126
  • SMH 3,570
  • BOH 7,301
  • RRH 48

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 lower
  • KC wheat 1-2 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .69%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up .9%

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Dec 21-27 total crush volume at 1,649,550 tons down 5.05% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 21-27 total crush capacity utilization at 59.99% down 3.2% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1, 2013 – Dec 27, 2013 at 18,289,460 tons up 22.9% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1 – Dec 27, 2013 at 65,287,020 tons up 10.26% from a year ago
  • As of Dec 27th total imported bean stocks at 5.0421 MMT down 150,000 tons from a week ago and down 2.88% from a year ago
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.6537 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.4-5.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has sold 33% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 48% a year ago

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT vs. 48.3 MMT a year ago

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 22.0 MMT vs. 26.0 MMT a year ago

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentina bean crop at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Favorable weather conditions in Brazil

 

Rains in Argentina with more rains in forecast.

 

300 new bean oil receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga South Dakota

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday. Large spec positions as of 12/24/13 options and futures combined

  • Wheat short 102,429
  • KC Wheat short 4,909
  • Corn short 156,922
  • Beans long 135,494
  • Meal long 31,254
  • Bean oil short 54,149

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly DOE numbers comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Friday at 930 am CST