News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Christmas, my child, is love in action. Every time we love, every time we give, it’s Christmas.
Dale Evans

Happy Holidays to you!! J

 

Grain market closes today at noon CST. Grain market does not reopen until Thursday Dec 26th at 830 am CST.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 3 ¾ at 1316
  • CH down 1 ¾ at 432 ½
  • WH down 3 at 606 ½
  • KC WH down 3 at 645 ½
  • MWH down 2 at 642
  • SMH down .80 at 429.10
  • BOH down 10 at 3947
  • RRH down 2 at 1526

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 6,057
  • CH 4,258
  • WH 1,911
  • KC WH 966
  • MWH 239
  • SMH 2,509
  • BOH 5,989
  • RRH 54

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold, crude, silver, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Quiet, lack of news, holiday market.

 

Nikkei up .1%

Hang Seng up 1.1%

Shanghai index up .2%

 

Quiet, lack of news, holiday market.

 

China grain closings – beans down 20, corn down 6, meal down 37, palm oil down 10, bean oil down 28.

 

Palm oil up 5. Two week high

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 70K optional origin corn for May shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 3,000 optional origin bean oil

 

India PEC tenders to sell 190,000 tons of wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Indonesian port workers on strike at Indonesia’s biggest port.

 

TALK yesterday – China seeking South American soybeans

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 17.58 MMT of grain between July 1st – Dec 23rd up 27.7% from a year ago

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Brazilian biodiesel production at 3.4 MMT vs. 2013 production estimate of 2.6 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Dorab Mistry estimated ‘13/14 Indian veg oil imports at 11.13 MMT (record) up 4% from a year ago

 

DuPont Co agricultural seed division said US farmers may plant more soybeans and less corn in 2014

 

Argentina hot and dry through the end of the week . Cooler temps and rains in the extended forecast for Argentina.

 

Heavy rains and flooding in Malaysia may lower palm oil production.

 

Ag Canada ‘13/14 Canadian crop estimates

  • All wheat crop at 37.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 33.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.2 MMT
  • Wheat exports at 22.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 19.4 MMT
  • Barley crop at 10.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.4 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.0 MMT
  • Corn crop at 14.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.1 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 13.1 MMT
  • Corn exports at 800,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 700,000 tons and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 1.7 MMT
  • Canola crop at 18.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 13.9 MMT
  • Canola exports at 8.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 7.3 MMT

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Dec 14-20th total crush volume at 1,737,460 tons up 4.63% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 14-20th total crush capacity utilization at 63.19% up 2.8% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1, 2013 – Dec 20, 2013) at 16,639,910 tons up 22.63% from a year ago
  • Total 2013 crush volume (Jan 1, 2013 – Dec 20, 2013) at 63,637,470 tons up 9.92% from a year ago
  • As of Dec 20th total import bean stocks at 5.1921 MMT down 74,900 tons from a week ago and down 3.36% from a year ago
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.6537 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.4 – 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 5.0 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.7 MMT  unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat 19.464 MB expecting 16-20 MB
  • Corn 35.888 MB expecting 28-32 MB
  • Beans 55.250 MB expecting 47-54 MB

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 639,196 open, down 4,896
  • Total corn 1,181,223 open, down 5,558
  • SF 83,546 open, down 8,450
  • SH 280,348 open, up 6,387
  • Total beans 632,933 open, down 1,734
  • SMF 28,781 open, down 5,533
  • SMH 149,660 open, up 5,025
  • Total meal 278,875 open, up 238
  • BOF 29,934 open, down 9,190
  • BOH 180,293 open, up 3,501
  • Total bean oil 341,552 open, down 4,585
  • WH 260,347 open, up 396
  • Total wheat 403,317 open , up 943
  • KC WH 87,785 open, up 429
  • Total KC 148,911 open, up 1,109

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • See attachments for holiday trading schedules
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s Dec 1-25th palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Friday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out on Friday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Friday at 10 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for Jan futures is Dec 30th
  • First notice day for Jan futures is Dec 31