News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The truth is, everyone is going to hurt you. You just got to find the ones worth suffering for.

– Bob Marley

 

USDA announced 127,536 US corn sold to unknown – 111,280 tons for ‘13/14 delivery and 16,256 tons for ‘14/15 delivery

 

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 7 at 1306 ¾
  • CH up 1 ¼ at 426 ¼
  • WH up ¾ at 613 ½
  • KC WH up 1 ½ at 655 1/4
  • MWH up 1 ¼ at 648
  • SMH down 4.00 at 423.70
  • BOH up 4 at 3910
  • RRH up 6 at 1528.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 16,233
  • CH 5,433
  • WH 4,409
  • KC WH 530
  • MWH 158
  • SMH 6,150
  • BOH 6,688
  • RRH 142

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 1-2 higher
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-2 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil  steady better
  • Rice  5-7 higher

 

Dollar higher. Gold, crude oil, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 1.5%

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai index down .13%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +10K to 379K expecting 345K

 

China grain closings – beans down 6, corn down 7, meal down 17, palm oil up 30, bean oil up 24

 

Palm oil up 20

 

Hearing China bought US beans for Jan – Feb shipment and bought Argentina and Brazilian beans yesterday.

 

Iraq bought 350,000 tons of Australian wheat March – May shipment

 

GAPKI said Indonesia exported 2.01 MMT of palm oil in November vs. 1.86 MMT in October

 

GAPKI said Indonesia exported 19.19 MMT of palm oil between Jan – Nov vs. 11.54 MMT a year ago

 

Britain Farm Minister said 2013 wheat crop was 11.9 MMT vs. expected output of 12.1 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.3 MMT

 

Britain Farm Minister said 2013 rapeseed crop at 2.13 MMT down 17% from a year ago

 

Strategie Grains 2014 EU28 crop estimates

  • Soft wheat at 138.0 MMT up 2% from 2013
  • Barley 54.5 MMT down 8%
  • Corn 64.7 MMT unchanged
  • Total grain 297.0 MMT down 1%

 

Showers possible in southeast Argentina , coverage 10% . Northern Argentina need rains . Hot temps in forecast next 5-7 days

 

Rains in forecast for Brazil through the weekend with 60% coverage . Central Brazil need rains

 

More rains in forecast for Malaysia flood concerns continue

 

CME Group lowered margins on KC wheat

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 656,100 ‘14/15 3,000 (expecting 330-450K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 827,100 ‘14/15 45,200  (expecting 550-750K)
  • Beans ‘13/14 415,500 ‘14/15 80,200  (expecting 700-900K)
  • Meal ‘13/14 77,100 (expecting 150-300K)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 27,000 (expecting 10-30K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 656,100 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 76 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (129,400 MT), Nigeria (110,000 MT), Mexico (103,900 MT), Brazil (50,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (42,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Panama (2,800 MT) and China (2,600 MT). Net sales of 3,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 376,500 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (74,000 MT), Brazil (69,400 MT), China (52,400 MT), Israel (36,300 MT), and Mexico (29,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 827,100 MT for 2013/2014 were up 19 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (238,700 MT), Mexico (135,100 MT), China (124,000 MT, including 180,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 60,000 MT switched to South Korea, and decreases of 4,700 MT), Taiwan (99,300 MT), South Korea (62,400 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China), and the Dominican Republic (59,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (10,100 MT). Net sales of 45,200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 693,400 MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (245,500 MT), Mexico (115,700 MT), Colombia (88,100 MT), South Korea (63,000 MT), Japan (54,700 MT), and Peru (45,800 MT).
  • Beans – Soybeans: Net sales of 415,500 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–were down 63 percent from the previous week and 64 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (306,400 MT, including 222,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 72,300 MT), the Netherlands (219,100 MT, including 200,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (122,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 56,400 MT switched from China), Indonesia (122,100 MT, including 59,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,400 MT), and Mexico (86,700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (576,300 MT). Net sales of 80,200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for China (55,000 MT), Japan (11,100 MT), unknown destinations (9,200 MT), and Hong Kong (5,000 MT). Exports of 1,569,200 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (899,900 MT), the Netherlands (219,100 MT), Spain (122,800 MT), Indonesia (83,500 MT), Egypt (64,100 MT), and Mexico (42,800 MT). NOTE: Accumulated exports were adjusted down 74,800 MT for the Netherlands.
  • Meal – Net sales of 77,100 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–were reported for Mexico, (54,100 MT), France (32,900 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (24,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (20,100 MT), and Colombia (14,400 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (102,500 MT) and Guatemala (4,200 MT). Exports of 263,100 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (102,200 MT), France (32,900 MT), Canada (27,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (27,300 MT), and Colombia (25,600 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 27,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (16,400 MT), Colombia (4,000 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), and Malaysia (3,000 MT). Exports of 14,100 MT were down 52 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (7,800 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and the Philippines (100 MT).

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 258 billion
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Friday with their Malaysian Dec 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • See attachments for holiday trading schedules
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Friday, Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • First notice day for Jan futures is Dec 31