News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Constantly choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil.”
― Jerry Garcia

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • All wheat at 58.105 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 56.16 MA
  • Corn at 91.5 MA  vs. 2013 acreage of 95.3 MA
  • Beans at 83.8 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 76.5 MA

 

Overnight closes

  • SH unchanged at 1334 ¾
  • CH down a ½ at 426 ¼
  • WH down 3 ½ at 616 ¼
  • KC WH down 2 ¼ at 658 ¼
  • MWH down a ½ at 649 ½
  • SMH up .80 at 437.40
  • BOH down 5 at 3958
  • RRH down .5 at 1546

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 16,123
  • CH 6,908
  • WH 7,335
  • KC WH 812
  • MWH 189
  • SMH 7,676
  • BOH 13,471
  • RRH 53

 

Opening calls

  • Beans mixed
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis steady lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei up 2%

Hang Seng lower

Shanghai index lower

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 2.5 MB expecting a draw of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 481,000 expecting a build of 1.9 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 434,000 expecting a build of 400,000

 

China grain closings – beans down 12, corn up 1, meal up 13, palm oil down 72, bean oil down 72

 

Palm oil down 26

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Dec 7-13th total crush volume at 1,660,500 tons up 3.07% from a week ago
  • For the week Dec 7-13th total crush capacity utilization at 60.39% up 1.32% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1, 2013 – Dec 13, 2013) at 14,902,450 tons up 21.71% from a year ago
  • Total 2013 crush volume (Jan 1 – Dec 13 2013) at 61,900,010 tons up 9.42% from a year ago
  • As of Dec 13 total imported bean stocks at 5.267 MMT up 67,200 tons from a week ago and down 2.67% from a year ago
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.6537 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.8 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8-5.0 MMT

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of optional origin beans (US or Brazil origin) for Feb shipment yesterday

 

China’s JC Intelligence said China has rejected 10 cargoes or 600,000 tons of US corn due to unapproved GMO since mid November . 40 cargoes of corn has been shipped to China since mid November and half of the cargoes have passed inspection.

 

Egypt FICH bought 43K tons of sunflower oil for Jan Feb shipment

 

Hearing Brazilian millers are buying wheat from Uruguay

 

Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2014 winter wheat area at 3.22 MH up 3% from 2013
Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2014 winter rapeseed area at 1.39 MH down 5% from a year ago

 

Toepfer said Germany’s winter grain crops are in good condition

 

Russia bought 14,985 tons of intervention grain total since Oct 15th at 525,555 tons

 

Talks of record large Canadian wheat crop.

 

3 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of the Andersons Mauee OH

 

43 KC receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Salina KS

 

New contract highs in Jan meal overnight of 454.00

 

New contract lows in March wheat overnight of 614 ¾

 

Reports that South Korea and Japan are delaying US corn purchases, hoping to get the rejected US corn cargoes that was shipped to China at a cheaper price.

 

Concerns about the hot dry weather in northern Argentina and southern Brazil

 

More rain in the forecast for Malaysia – concerns about floods.

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.7 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.8 MB
    • Distillates a build of 600,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Friday with their Malaysian Dec 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • See attachments for holiday trading schedules
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Friday, Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • First notice day for Jan futures is Dec 31