News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude.

– Oprah Winfrey

 

NOPA November Crush report comes out today at 11 am CST . Expecting

  • Crush = average estimate 161.3 MB, range of estimates are 157.5 – 170.0 MB, October’s crush was 157.063 MB and Nov 2012 crush was 157.308 MB
  • Bean oil stocks = average estimate 1.437 B pounds, range of estimates are 1.375-1.498 B, October’s bean oil stocks were 1.356 B and November 2012 stocks were 2.385 B
  • Meal exports = no estimates are given for meal exports, October meal exports were 701,802 tons and November 2012 exports were 1,039,965 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 at 1322 ½
  • CH down 3 ¾ at 421 ¾
  • WH down 4 ¼ at 624 ½
  • KC WH down 1 ¾ at 670 ¾
  • MWH down ¾ at 659 ¾
  • SMF down 2.50 at 430.10
  • BOF up 2 at 3985
  • RRF up 3.50 at 1558

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 8,665
  • CH 14,460
  • WH 5,311
  • KC WH 695
  • MWH 137
  • SMF 4,733
  • BOF 17,523
  • RRF 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady to 1 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar lower

 

Nikkei down 1.6%

Hang Seng down .6%
Shanghai index down 1.6%

 

Flash mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC at 50.5 (3 month low) vs. Nov final of 50.8
  • Eurozone at 52.7 expecting 51.8 vs. Nov final of 51.6
  • German at 54.2 expecting 53.0 and vs. Nov final of 52.7
  • France at 47.1 expecting 49.1 and vs. Nov final of 48.4

 

China grain closings – beans up 28, corn down 10, meal up 26, palm oil down 40,

Bean oil down 62

 

Palm oil up 11

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-15th palm oil exports at 644,550 tons down 12% from a month ago
Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-15th palm oil exports at 640,240 tons down 14% from a month ago

 

Some analysts are saying floods in Malaysia may lower palm oil output by 18%

 

Malaysia to keep January palm oil export tax unchanged from December at 5%

 

Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s Dec bean  imports at 6.34 MMT vs. 6.633 MMT in November

 

Speculation continues that China may cancel US bean purchases

 

Some rejected US corn shipments to China are being shipped to South Korea at lower prices

 

Hearing Latin America importers was seeking US corn for March-April shipment

 

Hearing Brazil bought at least one cargo of US HRW wheat last week

 

AgRural said as of Dec 13th Brazil planted 98% of their bean crop vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 98% a year ago

 

TALK unapproved GMO is being found in US DDG shipment to China. This may cause China to seek soymeal

 

Deadly pig virus PEDv was found in Nebraska, 20th state affected by the PEDv virus.

 

Mexico restores import taxes on white corn of 20% that was suspended in 2008.

 

Mexico restores import taxes on sorghum of 15% that was removed in 2012.

 

Mexico will keep no import taxes on yellow corn imports.

 

Favorable weather continues in Argentina and Brazil. Analysts said traders should keep an eye on the hot and dry weather in Central Argentina and Southern Brazil

 

 

March wheat made a new contract low overnight of 624.

 

Dec 4th low in Jan beans was 1311 ½

 

33 new corn receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Elburn Coop Inc. Morris IL

 

1 new meal receipt was registered Friday afternoon out of ADM Des Moines IA

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 23 with the date current
    • ADM House stopped 4
  • Soymeal 1 with the date at 12/12/13
    • House ADM issued 1
  • Bean oil 117 with the date current
  • Corn 33 with the date current
    • House Term stopped 28
  • Wheat 83 with the date at 12/12/13
    • House Term stopped 79
    • House ADM issued 3
    • House CBOT stopped 1
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date at 12/11/13
    • House CBOT issued 5
  • KC Wheat 44 with the date current

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Dec 10th . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 103,996
  • KC wheat long 3,891
  • Corn short 162,563
  • Beans long 130,672
  • Meal long 36,116
  • Bean oil short 52,423

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CH 664,432 open, down 5,692
  • Total corn 1,192,851 open, down 3,340
  • SF 168,486 open, down 7,072
  • Total beans 638,790 open, down 1,197
  • SMF 67,260 open, down 3,754
  • Total meal 275,119 open, up 1,416
  • BOF 92,875 open, down 2,211
  • Total bean oil 354,716 open, up 2,003
  • WH 248,845 open, down 287
  • Total wheat 391,737 open, down 124
  • KC WH 89,279 open, down 1,206
  • Total KC wheat 295,680 open, down 1,318

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Tonight/Tomorrow March bean, meal , and bean oil will be top step (spot month)
  • FOMC two day policy meeting starts tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • See attachments for holiday trading schedules
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Friday, Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST

 

Thank you,