News From The Grain Floor

The surest way not to fail is to determine to succeed.

– Richard Brinsley Sheridan

 

December futures expire today at noon CST.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 10 ¼ at 1313 ½
  • CH down 3 ¼ at 431
  • WH down 3 ¾ at 630 – new contract lows in March wheat overnight of 629 ¼ .
  • KC WH down 3 ¼ at 675
  • MWH down 1 ¾ at 662 ¼
  • SMF down 3.10 at 427.00
  • BOF down 34 at 3965
  • RRF down 1 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 10,702
  • CH 15,762
  • WH 4,264
  • KC WH 717
  • MWH 337
  • SMF 4,050
  • BOF 9,988
  • RRF 40

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice steady to 2 lower

 

Crude oil lower. Dollar, stock market, gold , and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .4%

Hang Seng up .1%

Shanghai Index down .3%

 

China grain closings – beans up 1, corn down 9, meal down 36, palm oil down 134, bean oil down 128

 

Palm oil down 52 – 3 week low

 

Yesterday South Korea bought 110,000 tons of Argentine meal for May shipment at a $45 per ton discount to US meal

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K bean oil for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40K bean oil for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Algeria bought 150K tons of optional origin durum wheat for Jan shipment

 

Japan bought 132,780 tons of wheat from US, Canada and Australia yesterday

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23K US corn and 12K US beans yesterday

 

Brazil bought 1 US HRW wheat cargo this week

 

Yesterday a group of 10 US senators proposed a bill to end the 2014 ethanol mandate. Many believe this bill will not pass congress.

 

Iraq canceled tender for 30K tons of rice

 

TALK/Speculation China will cancel US bean cargoes in the upcoming months
CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 China corn crop at 217.7 MMT (record )

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn domestic consumption at 197.0 MMT

 

Analysts expect China to stockpile 40 MMT of domestic corn this year

 

JCI said GMO MIR162 has been found in US ddg shipments

 

Analysts said China’s strict checking for unapproved strain of US GMO corn will continue into early next year

 

CBH estimated ‘13/14 western Australian grain crop at 14.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.2-13.8 MMT

 

BAGE ( Buenos Aires Grains Exchange) said Argentine bean planting is 65.5% complete vs. 57.8% a week ago

 

BAGE estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean area at a record high of 20.45 MH
BAGE said Argentine corn planting is 55.5% complete vs. 47.7% a week ago

 

BAGE said Argentine wheat harvest is 40% complete

 

BAGE estimated Argentine wheat crop at 10.35 MMT unchanged from previous estimates

 

Reports on Wednesday that 2 poultry markets in China tested positive for bird flu

 

India government said winter crop planting between October 1st – Dec 13th at 50.7 MH up 6% from a year ago

  • Wheat planted on 25.4 MH up 11.5% from a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 7.8 MH up 2.5% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed planted of 6.65 MH vs. 6.36 MH a year ago
  • Cereals planted on 5.02 MH vs. 5.30 MH a year ago

 

BLE said Germany produced 2.0 MMT of oilseed meal between July – Sept 2013 vs. 1.9 MMT a year ago including 1.3 MMT of rapeseed meal (vs. 1.2 MMT a year ago) and 661,000 tons of other oilmeal vs. 653,000 tons a year ago .

 

South American weather remains favorable for crops.

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 123 with the date current
  • Wheat 4 with the date at 12/10/13
    • Term house stopped 4
  • KC wheat 44 with the date current
    • ADM house issued 44
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No corn
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 260 open, down 1,385
  • CH 670,150 open, down 4,832
  • Total corn 1,196,181 open, down 2,477
  • SF 175,858 open, down 19,329
  • SH 206,670 open, up 13,755
  • Total beans 640,482 open, down 1,622
  • SMZ 53 open, down 424
  • SMF 71,122 open, down 8,366
  • Total meal 274,067 open, up 991
  • BOZ 124 open, down 89
  • BOF 95,085 open, down 4,667
  • Total bean oil 352,772 open, up 6,149
  • WZ 91 open, down 72
  • WH 249,376 open, up 878
  • Total wheat 392,108 open, up 3,663
  • KC WZ 44 open, down 16.
  • KC WH 90,524 open, down 1,910
  • Total KC wheat 148,538 open, down 214

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their Malaysian Dec 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA Nov crush report comes out Monday at 11 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting starts on Tuesday.
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Friday, Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST