News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

A winner is someone who recognizes

his God-given talents, works his tail off to develop them into skills, and uses these skills to accomplish his goals.”

~ Larry Bird legendary basketball player

 

USDA December supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates for the report.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 1 ½ at 1345 ½
  • CH down 2 at 436
  • WH down 3 ½ at 647
  • KC WH down 4 at 692
  • MWH down 1 ¾ at 675
  • SMF up .40 at 439.10
  • BOF up 18 at 4040
  • RRF down 2 at 1549

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,011
  • CH 8,166
  • WH 8,548
  • KC WH 662
  • MWH 315
  • SMF 5,776
  • BOF 9,134
  • RRF 12

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady to 1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude , gold, silver higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at .25% as expected

 

Nikkei down .2%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index up .2%

 

China grain market closings – beans up 18, corn down 1, meal up 23, palm down 16, bean oil down 20

 

Palm oil down 6

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Dec 1-10th Malaysian palm oil exports at 366,898 tons down 26% from a month ago
Surveyor Intertek estimated Dec 1-10th Malaysian palm oil exports at 378,579 tons down 20% from a month ago

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2013 bean crush at 35.4 MMT (60.3% of current crushing capacity) vs. 36.4 MMT in 2012 (63.7% of current crushing capacity)

 

ABARES estimated ‘13/14 Australian wheat exports at 18.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 19.2 MMT and vs. 21.3 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Japan bought 111,173 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

TALK from yesterday China may start testing DDGS cargoes from the US after rejecting some US corn cargoes

 

Mostly favorable weather in South America continues

 

Favorable weather in China winter wheat areas

 

Bitter cold in US Midwest and northern Plains

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll . Roll ends on Thursday

 

March corn 50 day moving average is 441 ¼

 

Jan bean oil 50 day moving average at 4097

 

2 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Toledo Ohio .

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report came out this morning

  • November palm oil output at 1.86 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.95 MMT and vs. October output of 1.97 MMT
  • November palm oil stocks at 1.98 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.98 MMT and vs. October stocks of  1.85 MMT
  • November palm oil exports at  1.52 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.59 MMT and vs. October exports of 1.66 MMT

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 30- Dec 6 total crush volume at 1,610,920 tons up 10.85% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 30- Dec 6 total crush capacity utilization at 59.07% up 5.79% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st , 2013 – Dec 6th, 2013 at 13,241,950 tons up 20.73% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st, 2013 – Dec 6th , 2013 at 60,239,510 tons up 8.94% from a year ago
  • As of Dec 6th total imported bean stocks at 5.2398 MMT down 14,900 tons from a week ago and down 6.06% from a year ago
  • Positive bean crush margins
  • Positive rapeseed crush margins
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.6537 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7-7.2 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.7 MMT
  • Said China did wash out some January bean cargoes
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.8-5.0+ MMT (first estimate made for March imports)

 

Conab came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimate updates

  • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 90.03 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.9-90.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5  MH vs. previous estimate of 29.5 MH
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of  45.9 MMT
  • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at  40.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.5-79.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 18.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 5.36 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.81 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.6 MMT

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 202 with the date at 12/04
  • Wheat 11 with the date at 12/04
    • House Term stopped 1
    • House ADM stopped 9
  • No KC, Minneapolis, corn or meal

 

 

Estimates for today’s USDA supply and demand and world production report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .404-.570 BB and November USDA estimate was .565 BB.
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.871 BB, range of estimates are 1.737-2.013 BB and November USDA estimate was 1.887 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .153 BB, range of estimates are .118-.170 BB and November USDA estimate was .170 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 179.11 MMT , range of estimates are 176.30-182.20 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.30 MMT , range of estimates are 156.95-165.50 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.64 MMT, range of estimates are 70-75.79 MMT and November USDA estimate was 70.23 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 Argentina and Brazil crops

  • Argentine corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate is 25.583 MMT, range of estimates are 24-27.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentine beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.329 MMT, range of estimates are 52.5-59.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 53.5 MMT
  • Argentine wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.0 MMT , range of estimates are 9.5-10.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 11.0 MMT
  • Brazil corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.392 MMT, range of estimates are 68.5-72.0 MMT and USDA November estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.736 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0-90.4 MMT and USDA November estimate was 88.0 MMT
  • Brazil wheat (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 4.702 MMT, range of estimate are 4.5-4.77 MMT and USDA November estimate was 4.75 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 4,900 open, down 1,112
  • CH 685,105 open, up 2,522
  • Total corn 1,201,069 open, up 3,437
  • SF 218,507 open, down 13,024
  • Total beans 633,137 open, up 5,929
  • SMZ 1,845 open, down 475
  • SMF 96,348 open, down 4,727
  • Total meal 275,219 open, up 3,712
  • BOZ 513 open, down 257
  • BOF 119,950 open, down 6,741
  • Total bean oil 344,470 open, up 2,104
  • WZ 252 open, down 47
  • WH 252,790 open, down 954
  • Total wheat 387,559 open, up 1,249
  • KC WZ 118 open, down 49
  • KC WH 95,411 open, down 307
  • Total KC wheat 148,311 open, up 1,389

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA Nov crush report comes out Monday Dec 16th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST