News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Try, try, try, and keep on trying is the rule that must be followed to become an expert in anything.

– W. Clement Stone

 

USDA announced 290K tons of US beans sold to China 230,000 tons for ‘13/14 delivery and 60,000 tons for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 7 ½ at 1333
  • CH down a ½ at 433 ¾
  • WH up 1 at 652
  • KC WH up 1 ½ at 697
  • MWH up a ½ at 681 ½
  • SMF up 5.00 at 432.40
  • BOF down 16 at 4033
  • RRF down 1.50 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 10,556
  • CH 10,106
  • WH 5,081
  • KC WH 505
  • MWH 197
  • SMF 6,186
  • BOF 5,886
  • RRF 43

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-2 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Crude and dollar lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.9%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up .4%

 

China’s Nov CPI +3.0% expecting +3.1% and vs. +3.2% in October

 

China’s Nov exports at +12.7% expecting +7.0% and vs. +5.6% in October

 

China’s Nov imports at +5.3% expecting +7.0% and vs. 7.6% in October

 

China’s Nov trade surplus at $33.8 billion expecting $21.7 billion and vs. October surplus of $31.1%

 

Chinese grain closings – beans up 5, corn up 1, meal up 22, bean oil up 10, and palm oil up 78

 

China’s customs data

  • November bean imports at 6.03 MMT vs. 4.19 MMT in October and vs. 4.16 MMT in Nov 2012
  • Jan – Nov bean imports at 55.97 MMT
  • November vegoil imports at 770,000 tons vs. 540,000 a month ago and vs. 920,000 tons in Nov 2012

 

TALK China last week bought 15-25 cargoes of Brazil, US , and Argentine beans last week

 

TALK China has rejected or is holding 10-15 US corn cargoes at ports due to unapproved GMO . Market did confirm 3 US corn cargoes were rejected at Chinese ports. – China government still considering to approve MIR162 GMO strain for imports

 

AgRural said as of Dec 9th Brazil has planted 94% of their bean crop vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 90% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at a record 89.453 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said 93% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted vs. 91% average

 

Soybean Processors of India said India exported 519,000 tons of meal in November vs. 517,000 tons a year ago

 

Soybean Processors of India said India exported 1.59 MMT of meal between April – Nov vs. 1.41 MMT a year ago

 

Soybean Processors of India said India exported 714,000 tons of meal between Oct – Nov vs. 568,000 tons a year ago

 

France customs data showed France exported 1.5 MMT of soft wheat in October

 

France customs data showed France exported 5.6 MMT of soft wheat between July-Oct up 14% from a year ago

 

Strategie Grain’s EU28 estimates

  • ‘14/15 rapeseed output estimated at 21.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 rapeseed output estimated at 20.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed area at 6.6 MH
  • ‘13/14 rapeseed area at 6.7 MH
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed average yield estimated at 3.2 TPH
  • ‘13/14 rapeseed average yield at 3.1 TPH
  • ‘14/15 sunseed output estimated at 8.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 sunseed output estimated at 8.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 sunseed area estimated at 4.4 MH
  • ’13./14 sunseed area estimated at 4.5 MH
  • ‘14/15 soybean output estimated at 1.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 soybean output estimated at 1.4 MMT
  • ‘14/15 soybean area estimated at .5 MH
  • ‘13/14 soybean area estimated at .5 MH

 

Argentina’s Ag Min weekly crop progress report from Friday

  • Bean area estimated at 20.704 MH
  • 66% of the bean crop planted vs. 63% a year ago
  • Corn area estimated at 5.716 MH
  • 52% of the corn crop planted vs. 66% a year ago
  • Sunseed area estimated at 1.249 MH
  • 99% of the sunseed crop is planted vs. 96% a week ago
  • Wheat area estimated at 3.342 MH
  • Wheat harvest is 35% complete vs. 38% a year ago

 

Cold weather in US Plains /Midwest

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

Favorable Chinese winter wheat conditions

 

Floods in parts of Malaysia

 

March corn 50 day moving average is 441 ½

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long Jan positions forward. Roll ends on Thursday.

 

1 Chicago wheat receipt was canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Toledo OH

 

35 ethanol receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 3 with the date at 12/05/13
  • KC wheat 5 with the date at 11/27/13
    • ADM house stopped 5
  • Bean oil 124 with the date at 12/03/13
  • No Chicago wheat
  • No meal
  • No corn

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Dec 3rd, futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 99,505
  • KC wheat long 8,523
  • Corn short 187,958
  • Beans long 114,667
  • Meal long 32,802
  • Bean oil short 47,556

 

From Friday’s news

  • India’s government said between Oct 1st – Dec 6th, India farmers have planted wheat on 21.41 MH vs. 18.34 MH a year ago
  • India’s government said between Oct 1st – Dec 6th India farmers have planted oilseeds on 7.47 MH vs. 7.22 MH a year ago
  • India’s government said between Oct 1st – Dec 6th India farmers have planted rapeseed on 6.42 MH vs. 6.08 MH a year ago
  • India’s government said between Oct 1st – Dec 6th India farmers have planted cereals on 4.54 MH vs. 4.81 MH a year ago
  • FranceAgriMer said as of Dec 2nd  France farmers have harvested 85% of their corn crop vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 99% a year ago
  • FranceAgriMer said as of Dec 2nd  France farmers have planted 87% of their soft wheat crop vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 87% a year ago
  • Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 503,269 tons of soymeal in November vs. 182,784 tons in October
  • Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 685,993 tons of soymeal between Oct – Nov up 21% from a year ago
  • Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 560,648 tons of total oilmeal in Nov up 52% from a month ago
  • Analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 soymeal exports at 1.4-1.6 MMT vs. 1.7 MMT a year ago

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 6,012 open, down 939
  • CH 682,631 open, down 4,028
  • Total corn 1,197,658 open, up 78
  • SF 231,596 open, down 9,190
  • Total beans 627,057 open, up 5,070
  • SMZ 9,838 open, up 73
  • SMF 101,319 open, 101,319 open, down 6,801
  • Total meal 271,752 open, down 494
  • BOZ 796 open, down 376
  • BOF 101,319 open, down 6,801
  • Total bean oil 271,752 open, down 494
  • WZ 299 open, down 167
  • WH 253,686 open, down 3,397
  • Total wheat 386,255 open, down 1,992
  • KC WZ 167 open, down 122
  • KC WH 95,718 open, down 352
  • Total KC wheat 146,922 open, up 1,064

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s  USDA supply and demand and world production report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .404-.570 BB and November USDA estimate was .565 BB.
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.871 BB, range of estimates are 1.737-2.013 BB and November USDA estimate was 1.887 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .153 BB, range of estimates are .118-.170 BB and November USDA estimate was .170 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 179.11 MMT , range of estimates are 176.30-182.20 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.30 MMT , range of estimates are 156.95-165.50 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.64 MMT, range of estimates are 70-75.79 MMT and November USDA estimate was 70.23 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 Argentina and Brazil crops

  • Argentine corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate is 25.583 MMT, range of estimates are 24-27.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentine beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.329 MMT, range of estimates are 52.5-59.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 53.5 MMT
  • Argentine wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.0 MMT , range of estimates are 9.5-10.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 11.0 MMT
  • Brazil corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.392 MMT, range of estimates are 68.5-72.0 MMT and USDA November estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.736 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0-90.4 MMT and USDA November estimate was 88.0 MMT
  • Brazil wheat (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 4.702 MMT, range of estimate are 4.5-4.77 MMT and USDA November estimate was 4.75 MMT

 

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Conab comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on tomorrow . Based on a Reuters poll.
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.95 MMT vs. October output of 1.97 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.98 MMT vs. October stocks of  1.85 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.59 MMT vs. October exports of 1.66 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports come out tomorrow morning.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA Nov crush report comes out Monday Dec 16th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST