News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

“Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”
― Martin Luther King Jr.

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today. GS will be rolling long Jan bean , meal, and bean oil into March.

 

USDA announced 384,150 tons of beans sold to unknown . 189,150 tons for ‘13/14 and 195,000 tons for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 7 ½ at 1320 ½
  • CH down a ¼ at 433 ¼
  • WH up a ¼ at 652 ¼
  • KC WH  up a ¼ at 695 ½
  • MWH up a ¼ at 684 ½
  • SMF down 2.70 at 425.40
  • BOF up 5 at 4066
  • RRF down 10 at 1555.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 11,063
  • CH 11,277
  • WH 4,496
  • KC WH  652
  • MWH 121
  • SMF 4,139
  • BOF 17,304
  • RRF 120

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 9-11 lower

 

Crude lower. Gold, silver, dollar , and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .8%

Hang Seng up .1%

Shanghai Index down .4%

 

November US unemployment report came out this morning

  • Nov non-farm payrolls +203,000 expecting +180,000
  • Nov unemployment rate at 7.0% expecting 7.2%
  • Oct non-farm payrolls revised to +200,000 from +204,000

 

China grain closings beans down 15, corn down 3, meal down 31, palm oil down 68, bean oil down 46.

 

Palm oil up 26.

 

Hearing strong demand for Malaysia palm oil from India

 

Hearing China bought at least 2 cargoes of US beans yesterday for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for May shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Argentine beans yesterday for May – June shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 US bean cargoes for Sept – October shipment

 

Analysts said China has rejected up to 5 cargoes of US corn and may reject more.

 

Morocco has bought 500,000 tons of wheat over the past 3 weeks mostly from France

 

Algeria bought 300,000 tons of milling wheat optional origin (possibly France) for Jan shipment

 

Iran has bought 300,000 tons of milling wheat over the past 3 weeks

 

Egypt GASC canceled a cargo of Romanian wheat for Dec shipment due to problems with documents

 

Libya bought 35K durum wheat from Mexico for Dec/Jan shipment

 

Taiwan bought 35K US milling wheat for Jan/Feb shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60K US corn for Feb /March shipment

 

South Korea NOFI canceled tender for 70K optional origin corn for May shipment due to high prices

 

Japan seeks 162K tons of wheat from Canada

 

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at a record high of 90.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.0 MMT

 

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 total corn crop at 76.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.7 MMT

 

Yesterday there were rumors that Argentina would lower their bean export tax to 15% from 35% currently for the first 90 days of 2014. Argentina’s Ag Min said today these rumors were NOT true. Argentina is NOT lowering bean export tax

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 world grain production at 2.5 billion tons up 8% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 world wheat crop at 710.8 MMT vs. 659.6 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated ‘131/4 world rice crop at 494.2 MMT vs. 489.1 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 world grain ending stocks at 572 MMT vs. 505 MMT a year ago

 

AOF (Australian Oilseed Federation) estimated ‘13/14 canola crop at 3.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.4 MMT and vs. 4.2 MMT a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Weekly Argentina crop progress report.

  • Soybean planting is 57.9% complete vs. 48.9% a week ago and vs. 53.9% a year ago
  • Estimated soybean area at 20.45 MH
  • Corn planting is 47.4% complete vs. 43.5% a week ago and vs. 57.4% a year ago
  • Corn area estimated at 3.3 MH
  • Wheat harvest is 29.5% complete vs. 19.7% a week ago and vs. 36.3% a year ago
  • Estimated wheat area at 3.6 MH
  • Sunflower planting is complete
  • Sunflower area at 1.48 MH vs. 1.8 MH in 2012

 

Oil World estimates

  • 2013 Brazilian bean crush at 35.2 MMT vs. 36.4 MMT in 2012
  • US biodiesel exports between Jan – Oct at 536,000 tons up 36% from a year ago
  • 2013 Brazilian bean exports at 43.2 MMT vs. 32.9 MMT a year ago
  • Jan – Oct Brazilian biodiesel production at 2.1 MMT up 9% from a year ago

 

Jan bean oil 50 day moving average is 4103

 

Bitter cold in northern US Plains today and tomorrow. Concerns about winterkill.

 

Mostly favorable South American weather continues

 

Concerns about flooding in Malaysia

 

29 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

32 new KC wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Cargill, Salina KS

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 15 with the date current
    • ADM house stopped 5
  • Ethanol 29 with the date at 11/27
  • Bean oil 186 with the date at 12/03
  • Wheat 139 with date at 12/04
    • House Term stopped at 15
    • House ADM stopped 117
  • KC Wheat 53 with the date at 11/27
    • ADM house stopped 53

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 6,951 open , down 1,341
  • CH 686,740 open, up 1,216
  • Total corn 1,197,738 open , up 2,288
  • SF 240,804 open, down 11,187
  • SH 143,310 open, up 10,403
  • Total beans 622,027 open, up 2,623
  • SMZ 3,015 open, down 638
  • SMF 108,245 open, down 2,829
  • Total meal 272,547 open, down 1,821
  • BOZ 1,172 open, down 1,049
  • BOF 137,246 open, down 2,684
  • Total bean oil 340,566 open, down 2,883
  • WZ 390 open, down 771
  • WH 257,184 open, down 200
  • Total wheat 388,313 open, up 1,573
  • KC WZ 289 open, down 61
  • KC WH 96,055 open, down 2,510
  • Total KC wheat 145,843 open, down 1,118

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • China’s November economic data comes out this weekend and Monday
    • Expecting China’s Nov CPI +3.1% vs. +3.2% in October
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Conab comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th . Based on a Reuters poll.
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.95 MMT vs. October output of 1.97 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.98 MMT vs. October stocks of  1.85 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.59 MMT vs. October exports of 1.66 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on Tuesday, Dec 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th at 11 am CST – I will email estimates for the report in a little while
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th Futures expire at noon CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST