News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Every man dies, but not every man really lives.

– William Wallace

 

USDA announced 111,000 US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 delivery 

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 6 ½ at 1323
  • CH down 5 ¼ at 431 ¼
  • WH down 8 at 653 ¾
  • KC WH down 6 at 698 ¼
  • MWH down 3 ¼ at 689 ¼
  • SMF down 1.80 at 428.50
  • BOF down 10 at 4025
  • RRF up 4.50 at 1595

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 7,704
  • CH 13,256
  • WH 12,820
  • KC WH 1,162
  • MWH 1,001
  • SMF 3,407
  • BOF 5,023
  • RRF 18

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 7-9 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 4-5 higher

 

Crude higher. Dollar, gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .1%

Hang Seng down .76%

Shanghai Index up 1.3%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at 23K to 298K expecting 320K

 

EPA holding public hearings today regarding 2014 biodiesel mandate

 

China grain closings – beans up 12, corn down 3, meal up 5, palm oil down 80, bean oil down 52

 

Palm oil down 15

 

Taiwan flour mills seek 35K US milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

China bought 1 cargo of US beans for Jan-Feb shipment yesterday

 

Positive crushing margins in China.

 

India seeks 19K tons of palm oil for Dec shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50K tons of US, Canadian, or Australian wheat

 

AMIS (Agriculture Market Information System) ‘13/14 estimates

  • World wheat crop estimated at 711 MMT vs. previous estimate of 708 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 660 MMT
  • World wheat ending stocks estimated at 172 MMT vs. previous estimate of 167 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 158 MMT
  • World corn crop estimated at 1.001 billion tons vs. previous estimate of 994 MMT and vs. 875 MMT a year ago
  • World corn ending stocks estimated at 180 MMT vs. previous estimate of 177 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 134 MMT
  • World bean crop estimated at 286 MMT vs. previous estimate of 282 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 268 MMT
  • World bean ending stocks estimated at 33 MMT vs. previous estimate of 31 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 ending of 27 MMT
  • World rice crop estimated at 494 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 489 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated 2013 wheat crop at 625,000 tons vs. 700,000 tons in 2012

 

Vietnam Economic Times estimated Vietnam’s 2013 rice exports at 8.1 MMT

 

Extreme cold temperatures in forecast for northern Plains into the weekend , blizzard like conditions in the Dakotas and Minnesota

 

Mostly favorable crop weather continues in South America

 

Concerns about flooding in Malaysia

 

21 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

55 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN

 

6 new ethanol receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 44 with the date current
    • ADM house stopped 29
  • KC wheat 13 with the date at 11/27/13
    • ADM house stopped 13
  • Chicago wheat 649 with the date current
    • Term house stopped 338
    • ADM house stopped 151
  • Bean oil 684 with the date at 12/02/13

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 229,200 (expecting 450-550K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 593,600 (expecting 850-950K)
  • Beans ‘13/14 805,200 ‘14/15 335,600 (expecting 900K – 1.2 M)
  • Meal ‘13/14 120,400 ‘14/15 10,500 (expecting 250-300K)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 1,400 (expecting 20-40K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 229,200 MT–a marketing-year low–were reported for the 2013/2014 marketing year. Increases were reported for Thailand (65,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (44,200 MT), Mexico (38,700 MT), the Philippines (31,000 MT), and Colombia (13,600 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Jamaica (9,100 MT), unknown destinations (4,700 MT), Germany (1,400 MT), and Brazil (1,300 MT). Exports of 369,400 MT were primarily to Thailand (65,700 MT), Nigeria (65,300 MT), China (62,500 MT), Taiwan (42,900 MT), and Brazil (32,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 593,600 MT for 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for China (362,600 MT, including 306,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), South Korea (123,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Cuba (100,000 MT), Mexico (62,100 MT), Japan (34,000 MT), and Peru (30,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (158,800 MT) and Guatemala (1,900 MT). Exports of 1,042,100 MT were primarily to China (587,900 MT), Mexico (172,400 MT), Japan (130,200 MT), South Korea (66,900 MT), and Guatemala (20,900 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 805,200 MT for 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for unknown destinations (298,500 MT), Spain (132,100 MT), Mexico (86,600 MT), the Netherlands (75,200 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (66,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China). Decreases were reported for Canada (11,200 MT). Net sales of 355,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (175,000 MT), China (170,000 MT), and Mexico (10,600 MT). Exports of 1,878,100 MT were primarily to China (1,420,100 MT), Thailand (87,600 MT), the Netherlands (75,200 MT), Spain (72,100 MT), Japan (39,200 MT), and Taiwan (37,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 120,400 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (41,200 MT), Denmark (39,000 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Poland (25,600 MT, including 19,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Israel (12,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (34,000 MT) and the Dominican Republic (2,500 MT). Net sales of 10,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 317,900 MT were primarily to the Philippines (104,300 MT), Vietnam (50,100 MT), Denmark (39,000 MT), Poland (25,600 MT), and Canada (17,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for the Dominican Republic (4,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Nicaragua (400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (4,600 MT) and Canada (400 MT). Exports of 29,000 MT were primarily to China (20,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,600 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT), and Canada (600 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 8,292 open, down 4,074
  • CH 685,793 open, down 4,336
  • Total corn 1,195,733 open, down 3,303
  • SF 252,098 open, down 4,115
  • Total beans 619,555 open, up 1,603
  • SMZ 3,653 open, down 828
  • SMF 111,227 open, down 774
  • Total meal 273,732 open, up 1,594
  • BOZ 2,221 open, down 886
  • BOH 140,019 open, down 4,602
  • Total bean oil 343,643 open, down 34
  • WZ 1,161 open, down 206
  • WH 257,957 open, down 1,234
  • Total wheat 386,960 open, up 284
  • KC WZ 350 open, down 206
  • KC WH 98,560 open, down 117
  • Total KC 146,956 open, up 71

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 138 billion
  • Unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and ends Dec 12th rolling long Jan positions into March in beans, meal, and bean oil.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • China’s November economic data comes out this weekend and Monday
    • Expecting China’s Nov CPI +3.1% vs. +3.2% in October
  • Conab comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th . Based on a Reuters poll.
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.95 MMT vs. October output of 1.97 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.98 MMT vs. October stocks of  1.85 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.59 MMT vs. October exports of 1.66 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on Tuesday, Dec 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th Futures expire at noon CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST