News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Christmas is a tonic for our souls. It moves us to think of others rather than of ourselves. It directs our thoughts to giving.”

  • B.C. Forbes

 

USDA announced 165,750 tons of US corn sold to Mexico . 132,600 tons for ‘13/14 delivery and 33,150 tons of ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 at 1314 ¾
  • CH down 1 ¼ at 430
  • WH down 2 ¼ at 666
  • KC WH down ¾ at 710 ¾
  • MWH unchanged at 704 ½
  • SMF down 3.80 at 425.00
  • BOF up 22 at 4033
  • RRF down 4.50 at 1588.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,226
  • CH 24,821
  • WH 9,644
  • KC WH 859
  • MWH 291
  • SMF 5,793
  • BOF 9,494
  • RRF 24

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, dollar, silver, higher. Gold and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down 1.7%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index up 1.3%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 12.4 MB expecting a build of 320,000
  • Gas a draw of 119,000 expecting a build of 1.5 MB
  • Distillates a build of 540,000 expecting a draw of 1.8 MB

 

China grain closings – beans up 24, corn unchanged, meal up 12, bean oil down 32, palm oil down 2

 

Palm oil up 39.

 

Heavy rains and thunderstorms in Malaysia . Flooding concerns.

 

General Administration of Quality Supervision Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) said China rejected 120,642 tons of US corn due to unapproved GMO . They said this is the biggest volume of grain to be rejected at Chinese ports.

 

China bought 1.54 MMT of US corn between Jan – October

 

Abiove estimated Brazilian ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.6 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 86.0 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil ‘13/14 bean exports at 44.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Abiove estimated Brazil ‘13/14 ending stocks at 5.39 MMT vs. 2.34 MMT a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 90+ MMT

 

Russia bought 19,169 tons of intervention grain . Total since Oct 15 is 443,205 tons bought

 

March wheat 100 day moving average 673 ¾

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

184 wheat receipts canceled by the Andersons out of Maumee OH

 

21 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon  . 20 out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN and 1 out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

After 7 am CST – 4,000 Jan beans were sold in chunks of 400-700 contracts

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 127 with the date current
    • CHS house stopped 35
    • ADM house stopped 57
    • Bean oil 153 with the date at 11/29/13
    • Wheat 607 with the date at 12/02
    • KC wheat 147 with the date at 11/26
      • ADM house stopped 132

 

Stats Canada came out this morning with their ‘13/14 Canadian crop estimates

  • All wheat at 37.53  MMT (record) vs. average estimate of 33.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 33.026 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.21 MMT
  • Durum wheat at 6.51 MMT vs. average estimate of 5.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5792 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 4.626 MMT
  • Canola at 17.96 MMT (record) vs. average estimate of 13.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.9425 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 13.869 MMT
  • Oats at 3.89  MMT vs. average estimate of 3.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.1633 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 2.8119 MMT
  • Barley at  10.24 MMT vs. average estimate of 9.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.247 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.012 MMT
  • Corn at  14.194 MMT vs. average estimate of 13.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.942 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 13.06 MMT
  • Beans at 5.198 MMT vs. average estimate of 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.817 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 5.086 MMT
  • Flax at 712,000 tons vs. average estimate of 683,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 664,300 tons and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 488,900 tons

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 12,366 open, down 4,052
  • CH 690,137 open, down 3,796
  • Total corn 1,199,138 open, down 3,417
  • SF 256,383 open, down 6,041
  • Total beans 618,195 open, down 1,957
  • SMZ 4,481 open, down 1,296
  • Total meal 272,349 open, up 539
  • BOZ 3,107 open, down 1,879
  • BOF 144,650 open, down 1,382
  • Total bean oil 343,815 open, up 5,803
  • WZ 1,367 open, down 104
  • WH 259,020 open, down 2,692
  • Total wheat 386,965 open, down 2,058
  • KC WZ 560 open, down 282
  • KC WH 98,675 open, up 554
  • Total KC wheat 146,887 open, up 298

 

Informa world crop estimates from yesterday

  • Brazil’s 2013 all corn crop estimated at 70.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 71.1 MMT
  • Brazil’s 2013 bean crop estimated at 88.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.7 MMT
  • Ukraine’s 2013 corn crop estimated at 28.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 27.5 MMT
  • EU 2014 corn crop estimated at 66.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 67.5 MMT
  • Russia’s 2014 corn crop estimated at 8.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.4 MMT
  • India’s 2014 wheat crop estimated at 96.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT
  • Argentina’s 2013 corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentina’s 2013 wheat crop estimated at 9.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Australia’s 2013 wheat crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Ukraine 2014 wheat crop estimated at 20.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Russia 2014 wheat crop estimated at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • India’s 2013 rice crop estimated at 105.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 106.0 MMT
  • Brazil’s 2013 bean planting area estimated at 29.35 MH vs. 27.75 MH a year ago
  • Argentina’s 2013 bean crop estimated at 59.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2013 world cotton crop estimated at 119.6 MB vs. previous estimate of 118.3 MB

 

News from yesterday

  • Egypt GASC bought 60K tons of Romanian wheat for Dec shipment
  • Oil World estimated global bean exports between Sept – Nov at 28.4 MMT vs. 23.9 MMT a year ago. Said that China accounts for 64% of world bean imports vs. 61% a year ago.
  • Oil World said the US exported 18.3 MMT of beans between Sept – Nov including 13.2 MMT going to China vs. 16.8 MMT a year ago with 11.5 MMT going to China
  • Oil World estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 69.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.0 MMT and vs. 59.9 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global bean imports at 108.6 MMT up 11 M from a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 45.0 MMT
  • Oil World estimated US ‘13/14 bean exports at 40.0 MMT
  • Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 9.3 MMT
  • Cordonnier’s Weekly Crop Report
    • Estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • Estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 56.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT
    • Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT vs. previous estimate 25.0 MMT
    • Hearing China government is trying to washout US bean cargoes for Jan shipment
    • Yigu Consulting said China may halt US corn imports due to GMO issues
    • Argentina’s Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 8.5 MMT vs. 8.2 MMT a year ago
    • Argentina Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 corn planting area at 5.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate
    • Argentina Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 bean planting area at 20.7 MH  vs. previous estimate 20.65 MH
    • Traders estimated China’s ‘13/14 Australian wheat imports at 3-4 MMT
    • Safras e Mercado said as of 11/29 Brazilian ‘13/14 bean crop is 33% sold vs. 32% a month ago and vs. 48% a year ago
    • MDA Weather Services said about 5% of the US HRW wheat crop is at risk for winterkill later this week. Temperatures are not as cold as originally predicted
    • Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has harvested 95.3 MMT of grain on 41.8 MH (95% of total area) with an average yield of 2.28 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 74.5 MMT of grain of 38.9 MH with an average yield of 1.91 TPH.
    • Estimated Fund Activity from yesterday
      • Wheat bought 3K
      • Corn bought 8K
      • Beans sold 3K
      • Meal sold 1K
      • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

  • ABN sold 2,000 Jan bean 1220 puts at 1 ¾-2 ¼
  • Tenco sold 1,400 Jan bean 1320 calls at 19 1/8 – 19 ¼ and bought 672 Jan bean futures at 1315
  • GFI bought 1,000 March bean 1400 calls and sold 1,000 Jan bean 1400 calls at 8 ¾ – 9 ¼ debit
  • Tenco sold 2,000 Dec 2014 corn 380 puts at 10 ½ and sold 360 CZ14 futures at 451 ½
  • ABN sold 1,000 Feb corn 410p/430c strangles at 18
  • ICap bought 1,225 Sept corn 470 calls at 24 ½ and sold 515 Sept futures at 445
  • ADM sold 1,500 Dec 2014 corn 400/450 put spreads at 20 3/8
  • FI bought 2,000 Jan corn 440 calls at 2 7/8-3
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 470 calls at 3 3/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March wheat 690/720 call spreads at 6 ¾
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Jan meal 450 calls at 3.75-4.00
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 July meal 340 puts at 3.500 and sold 300 July  futures at 402.50

 

Crush info from yesterday

 

Quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

FZZ          1.08-1.12       95-1.05

JAN         66-67               64.5-65

MCH       64-64.5           64-65

MAY       59-59.5           58-59

JLY           59-60              58-60

AUG       63-65              63-65

SEP         83-86              84.5-86

OCT        77-78              76-77.5

DEC        72-72.5           72-72.5

 

Players

 

New Edge sold 600 Jan at 65.5-67.5

 

Rosenthal sold 100 March at 68.5

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CST expecting
    • Crude expecting unchanged
    • Gas a build of 1.1 MB
    • Distillates  a draw of 1.6 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday and ends Dec 12th rolling long Jan positions into March in beans, meal, and bean oil.
  • Conab comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th . October data was
    • Output at 1.97 MMT
    • Stocks at 1.85 MMT
    • Exports at 1.66 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on Tuesday, Dec 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday, Dec 10th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th Futures expire at noon CST
  • Last trading day for Jan options is Dec 27th . Options expire at 115 pm CST