News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“You’ve gotta dance like there’s nobody watching,
Love like you’ll never be hurt,
Sing like there’s nobody listening,
And live like it’s heaven on earth.”
― William W. Purkey

 

TALK this morning of China washing out more US bean cargoes or switching to Brazilian bean cargoes.

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Dec shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with US cotton and world production estimates.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 7 ¼ at 1314
  • CH down 1 ¼ at 423 ¼
  • WH up ¾ at 662 ½
  • KC WH up ¾ at 706 ½
  • MWH up 2 at 704 ½
  • SMF down 4.60 at 424.20
  • BOF down 8 at 4052
  • RRF down 1 at 1589

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,263
  • CH 9,188
  • WH 4,404
  • KC WH 366
  • MWH 268
  • SMF 7,091
  • BOF 8,006
  • RRF 31

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 4-5 lower
  • Bean oil  5-10 lower
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver lower. Crude higher.

 

Nikkei up .5%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down .1%

 

China grain closes – beans up 10, corn up 3, meal down 10, palm oil down 66, bean oil down 34

 

Palm oil down 24.

 

Flooding in parts of Malaysia

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 23-29th total crush volume at 1,453,170 tons up 4.81% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 23-29th total crush capacity utilization at 53.28% up 2.29% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1st – Nov 29th) crush volume at 11,631,030 tons up 18.6% from a year ago
  • Total 2013 (Jan 1st – Nov 29th) crush volume at 58,628,590 tons up 8.30% from a year ago
  • As of Nov 29th total imported bean stocks at 5.2547 MMT up 372,500 tons from a week ago and down 1.53% from a year ago
  • China’s Nov bean imports estimated at 6.507 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • China’s Dec bean imports estimated at 7.0-7.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • China’s Jan bean imports estimated at 5.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • China’s Feb bean imports estimated at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Reuters article – Traders and analysts said China could reject more US corn cargoes . Chinese buyers will probably not place new orders for US corn while shipments are in danger of being rejected . JC Intelligence said this will slow corn imports. CNGOIC said US exporters are in talks with China buyers to delay existing orders

 

Grain.gov.cn said China may import less than expected corn this year due to unapproved GMO being found in US cargoes

 

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo off of the Gulf yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo yesterday

 

Hearing China has bought 250,000 tons of South American bean oil for April – July  shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Jan shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 109,000 optional origin milling wheat and 75,000 optional origin barley for Jan/Feb shipment

 

ABARES estimated ‘13/14 Australian wheat crop at 26.213 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.467 MMT and vs. 22.5 MMT in ‘12/13

 

ABARES estimated ‘13/14 Australian canola crop at 3.41 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.31 MMT

 

Brazil’s Trade Minster said Brazil exported 647,900 tons of beans in Nov vs. 1.5 MMT in October and vs. 259,000 tons in Nov 2012.

 

Brazil’s Trade Minster said Brazil exported 3.91 MMT of corn in November vs. 3.95 MMT in October and vs. 3.91 MMT in Nov 2012

 

UAC said Ukraine November grain exports at a record high of 4.2 MMT vs. 3.4 MMT in October , including 3.4 MMT of corn

 

12 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Sunrise Coop Inc. Clyde OH

 

94 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

Winterkill threat in US Plains this week

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 700 with the date at 11/29/13
    • CHS Hedging issued 700
    • ADM house stopped 371
  • Bean oil 453 with the date at 11/26/13
  • Wheat 242 with the date at 11/29/13
    • House ADM stopped 1
  • KC Wheat 197 with the date at 11/26
  • No corn
  • No meal

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from yesterday. Large spec positions as of Nov 26th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 103,920
  • KC wheat long 5,185
  • Corn short 204,411
  • Beans long 109,167
  • Meal long 28,816
  • Bean oil short 36,051

 

News from yesterday

  • Weekly US export inspection report from yesterday
    • Wheat 15.5 MB expecting 11-15 MB
    • Corn 35.661 MB expecting 27-31 MB
    • Beans 52.623 MB expecting 60-70 MB
  • Russia Statistics Service said Russia exported 13.641 MMT of grain between July 1-Nov 27th up 16% from a year ago
  • Grain.gov.cn said current palm oil stocks at Chinese ports at 900,000 tons vs. 880,000 tons a week ago
  • Grain.gov.cn estimated China’s Nov palm oil exports at 500,000 tons and estimated Dec palm oil imports at 500,000 tons
  • Ag Rural  said Brazil has planted 89% of their bean crop vs. 79% a week ago and vs. 85% a year ago
  • Ag Rural estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean planting area at 29.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate and up 6% from a year ago
  • Ag Rural estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 89.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.7 MMT
  • Argentina announced Argentine oil companies will have to raise the mix of biodiesel to 10% from 8% for diesel sold in Argentina as of Dec 1st
  • Oil World estimated 2014 Ukraine winter rapeseed planting area at 980,000 hectares vs. 1.0 MH a year ago
  • Oil World said Argentina Jan – October soybean crush at 29.9 MMT vs. 29.1 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World said Argentina Jan – October sunseed crush at 2.4 MMT vs. 3.3 MMT a year ago
  • Indonesia USDA attaché estimated ‘13/14 palm oil output at 31.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 28.5 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Indonesia USDA attaché estimated ‘13/14 palm oil exports at 21.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.0 MMT and vs. 20.2 MMT a year ago
  • Indonesia USDA attaché estimated ‘13/14 palm oil domestic use at 8.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 7.8 MMT a year ago
  • Indonesia USDA attaché estimated ‘13/14 palm oil ending stocks at 3.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.5 MMT and vs. 1.9 MMT a year ago
  • Canada’s August – October Canola use at a three year low of 3.4 MMT vs. 3.9 MMT a year ago
  • Customs data showed Algeria Jan –October cereal imports at 8.381 MMT up 2.7% from a year ago
  • Dec corn made a new contract low yesterday of $4.10
  • March corn made a new contract low yesterday of $4.18
  • Estimated fund activity from yesterday
    • Wheat sold 4K
    • Corn traded even
    • Beans sold 7K
    • Meal sold 4K
    • Bean oil traded even

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST with their ‘13/14 crop production estimate updates
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Dec 6th and ends Dec 12th rolling long Jan positions into March in beans, meal, and bean oil.
  • Conab comes out on Dec 10th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on Dec 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports on Dec 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Dec 10th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th