News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

It doesn’t matter where you are coming from. All that matters is where you are going.

– Brian Tracy

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 4 ½ at 1341 – highest since Sept 19th
  • CH down 3 ¼ at 421 ¼
  • WH up 2 ¾ at 671 ½
  • KC WH up 5 at 714 ¼
  • MWH up 1 ¼ at 708 ¾
  • SMF up 3.50 at 440.10
  • BOF up 13 at 4059
  • RRF up 3 at 1599

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,400
  • CH 13,020
  • WH 8,119
  • KC WH 1,076
  • MWH 408
  • SMF 4,967
  • BOF 9,051
  • RRF 93

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, dollar, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei unchanged

Hang Seng up .7%

Shanghai Index down .6%

 

November final mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC final at 50.8 vs. October final of 50.9
  • China’s official final at 51.4 unchanged from October and higher than expected
  • Eurozone final at 51.6 expecting 51.5 and vs. 51.3 in October
  • German final at 52.7 expecting 52.5 and vs. 51.7 in October
  • UK final 58.4 (highest since Feb 2011) expecting 56.0 and vs. 56.5 in October
  • France final at 48.4 expecting 47.8 and vs. 49.1 in October

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

China grain closings – beans up 29, corn up 1, meal up 30, palm oil down 18, bean oil up 36

 

Palm oil down 12

 

Good export demand continues for soybeans

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s November palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT down 4.8% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s November palm oil exports at 1.47 MMT down 4.9% from a month ago

 

Reports Friday that China did cancel 3 cargoes of US corn due to unapproved GMO strain found.

 

Chinese analysts estimated November bean imports at 6.2 MMT

 

Chinese analysts estimated Dec bean imports at 6.6 MMT

 

Bangladesh retenders for 50K tons of optional origin wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at a record high 57.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 53.5 MMT

 

Analysts are estimating Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean area at 20.0-21.0+ MH – there is talk of Argentina farmers switching to bean acres from corn acres because corn prices are falling.

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 11/29 Brazil bean planting was 88% complete vs. 78% a week ago vs. 86% a year ago and vs. 85% average

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly Argentine crop progress report from Friday

  • Soybean planting is 54% complete vs. 57% a year ago
  • Soybean area is estimated at 20.646 MH
  • Corn planting is 48% vs. 62% a year ago
  • Corn area estimated at 5.714 MH
  • Sunflower seed planting is 97% complete vs. 89% a year ago
  • Sunflower area estimated at 1.36 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 13.96 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 29th up 19% from a year ago

 

India’s ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 10.23 MMT down 4.4% from a year ago

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 410,423 tons of rice in November down 23.6% from a month ago

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 6.14 MMT of rice between Jan – November down 13.5% from a month ago

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

Freezing temps in the forecast for US Plains this week , may cause damage to some wheat crops.

 

March wheat 100 day moving average is 674 ½

 

Rogers roll continues. Rolling long Jan positions into March.

 

Weekly US crop progress reports that come out on Mondays are finished for the season.

 

Hearing Informa is coming out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with cotton updates only

 

200 new KC wheat receipts registered on Friday afternoon out of Cargill Salina KS

 

Deliveries

  • Chicago wheat – 724 with the date at 11/27/13
    • House Term stopped 169
  • KC Wheat – 200 with the date at 10/25/13
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date at 9/05/13
  • Bean oil – 754 with the date at 11/22/13
    • House ADM issued 231
  • No corn
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 21,727 open, down 8,929
  • CH 691,577 open, up 6,349
  • Total corn 1,202,579 open, down 3,186
  • SF 267,113 open, up 736
  • Total beans 619,303 open, up 7,752
  • SMZ 6,915 open, down 2,060
  • SMF 121,278 open, up 979
  • Total meal 272,258 open, up 3,09
  • BOZ 6,799 open, down 2,065
  • BOF 148,542 open, down 2,192
  • Total bean oil 337,054 open, up 536
  • WZ 2,585 open, down 4,416
  • WH 259,778 open, up 4,122
  • Total wheat 388,036 open, up 2,034
  • KC WZ 1,634 open, down 963
  • KC WH 97,633 open, up 174
  • Total KC wheat 146,999 open, down 771

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report will come out today at 230 pm CST. Delayed due to Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Wednesday with their ‘13/14 crop production estimate updates
  • ABARES come out this week with Australian ‘13/14 crop production estimates
  • Unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Dec 6th and ends Dec 12th rolling long Jan positions into March in beans, meal, and bean oil.
  • Conab comes out on Dec 10th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
  • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
  • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Dec 10th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December futures is Dec 13th