News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.

~John Fitzgerald Kennedy

 

Happy Thanksgiving to you all.

 

Grain markets close today at 115 pm CST. Grain markets reopen on Friday at 830 am CST.

 

USDA announced 235,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown. 180,000 tons for ‘13/14 shipment and 55,000 for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment

 

Today is position day for December futures . Traders should be out of Dec long positions by the close or risk delivery . Expectations for deliveries tonight are

  • Wheat 100-500 (one analyst said we could see more than 500). As of yesterday afternoon there were 213 receipts registered.
  • KC wheat 0 (one analyst said , should there be some deliveries (can never rule it out) they should be minimal). As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered.
  • Corn 0-200. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered.
  • Meal 0. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered
  • Bean oil 500-3,000. As of yesterday afternoon there were 9,921 receipts registered

 

Rogers roll does NOT begin today. It begins on Friday and ends on Tuesday.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 7 ¼ at 1336 ½
  • CH up 2 ¼ at 427
  • WH up 4 ½ at 660 ½
  • KC WH up 3 ½ at 702
  • MWH up 2 ½ at 705 ¾
  • SMF up 4.70 at 436.60
  • BOF down 5 at 4055
  • RRF down 3.50 at 1570.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 16,540
  • CH 14,641
  • WH 12,048
  • KC WH 640
  • MWH 400
  • SMF 10,109
  • BOF 14,921
  • RRF 123

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 3-4 lower

 

Gold , silver, and stock market higher. Crude and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei down .4%

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai Index up .2%
Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 10K to 316K expecting 330,000

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 6.9 MB expecting a build of 600,000
  • Gas a build of 201,000 expecting a build of 300,000
  • Distillates a draw of 1.7 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB

 

Palm oil up 18

 

China beans up 11, corn unchanged, meal up 29, palm oil down 60, and bean oil down 26

 

South Korea KFA bought 58,000 US corn for May shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 60,000 US corn for May shipment

 

Yesterday China was eyeing US beans for Jan – Feb shipment and eyeing Brazilian beans for Feb-March shipment

 

Veg Oil conference in Indonesia. James Fry and Dorab Mistry to make 2014 palm oil forecasts.

 

Russia bought 28,621 tons of intervention grain. Total since program started on Oct 15th is 398,790 tons bought.

 

Indonesia Wheat Flour Mills Association estimated 2013 wheat imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MMT and estimated 2014 wheat imports at 6.5-6.7 MMT

 

Mississippi river closed for an eight mile stretch near LeClaire , IA due to an oil spill.

 

Favorable South American weather continues

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 79,357 open, down 52,910.
  • CH 670,747 open, up 17,017
  • Total corn 1,234,465 open, down 28,501
  • SF 265,745 open, up 4,423
  • Total beans 606,304 open, up 9,360.
  • SMZ 13,757 open, down 13,536
  • SMF 119,338 open, down 524
  • Total meal 270,195 open, down 9,065
  • BOZ 16,547 open, down 5,631
  • BOF 150,914 open, up 3,566
  • Total bean oil 338,031 open, up 3,675
  • WZ 19,630 open, down 18,073
  • WH 250,709 open, up 14,014
  • Total wheat 392,095 open, down 2,679
  • KC WZ 7,881 open, down 5,878
  • KC WH 94,994 open, up 2,589
  • Total KC wheat 150,185 open, down 2,259

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST expecting
    • Crude a build of 500,000
    • Gas a build of 400,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST (a day early due to Thanksgiving holiday) expecting down 10 billion
  • See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule
  • First notice day for Dec futures is Friday
  • Month end is Friday.
  • Weekly US export sales report will come out on Friday at 730 am CST due to Thanksgiving holiday
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday and ends on Tuesday they will be rolling long Jan positions into March .
  • Weekly COT report will come out on Monday at 230 pm CST. Delayed due to Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Dec 6th and ends Dec 12th rolling long Jan positions into March in beans, meal, and bean oil.