News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“For every minute you are angry you lose sixty seconds of happiness.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

December options expire today at 115 pm CST. I will send an email with Dec options open interest shortly after the opening .

 

USDA announced 115K US soybeans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 11 ¼ at 1302 ¾
  • CH up a ½ at 430
  • WH up 2 ¾ at 657 ½
  • KC WH up 2 at 696 ¾
  • MWH up a ¼ at 705 ½
  • SMF up 5.30 at 410.80
  • BOF down 11 at 4169
  • RRF down 7.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 21,135
  • CH 11,243
  • WH 4,604
  • KC WH 983
  • MWH 102
  • SMF 9,060
  • BOF 12,830
  • RRF 39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-12 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady higher
  • Meal 5.00-6.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Crude and dollar lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.1%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index down .4%

 

China grain closings – beans up 7, corn up 1, meal up 17, palm oil up 110, and bean oil up 100

 

Palm oil down 11

 

This week China has been seeking US and Brazilian beans for Jan- March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 US bean cargoes for Feb shipment yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 2 US bean cargoes for March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo yesterday for Feb- March shipment

 

Japan bought 14,731 tons of feed wheat and 1,458 tons of barley via SBS tender for Feb shipment

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimated 2014 palm oil output at 29.5 MMT up 13% from a year ago

 

Indonesia will raise December palm oil export tax to 12% from 9% currently

 

EU will impose import taxes on Argentine and Indonesia biodiesel. 24.6% for Argentina and 18.9% for INdonesiaq

 

Analysts estimated Malaysia’s 2014 palm oil output at 19.5 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Nov 21st 60.169 MMT on 15.219 MH (96% of total area) with an average yield of 3.95 TPH . A year ago Ukraine harvested 44.694 MMT on 14.303 MH with an average yield of 3.12 TPH

 

Bangladesh government said as of Nov 18th rice stocks at 711,000 tons down 39% from a year ago

 

Bangladesh government said as of Nov 18th wheat stocks at 372,000 tons up 39% from a year ago

 

Midwest forecast cold and dry should allow farmers to finish harvest.

 

Favorable Brazilian and Argentine weather forecast

 

Too wet in Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Jan bean oil 50 day is 4140

 

Jan bean 50 day is 1292 ½

 

Goldman Sachs expects bean prices to fall to $9.50 by the end of 2014

 

Goldman Sachs expects corn prices to fall to $3.75 by the end of 2014

 

Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to fall to $10.50 by the end of 2014

 

On Wednesday Dorab Mistry said palm oil prices my rise to 2,800 ringgits in the next 6 months vs. his previous price forecast of 2,200-2,400 ringgits

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report from yesterday

  • Bean planting is 37.3% complete vs. 21.8% a week ago and vs. 36.6% a year ago
  • Estimated Argentine ‘13/14 bean area at 20.2 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 42.7% complete vs. 42.0% a week ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn area at 3.46 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower planting 94.2% complete
  • Sunflower area estimated at 1.48 MH
  • Wheat harvest is 13.1% complete vs. 6.9% a week ago and vs. 18.9% a year ago
  • Estimated wheat crop at 10.35 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.8 MMT
  • Estimated wheat average yield at 11.6 TPH

 

China’s customs data October imports from yesterday

  • Palm oil imports 414,683 tons down 35% from a year ago
  • Bean imports 4.19 MMT up 3.9% from a year ago
  • Wheat imports 1.3 MMT up 273.3% from a year ago
  • Corn 38,861 tons down 91.3% from a year ago
  • Bean oil imports 99,703 tons down 56.2% from a year ago

 

Estimated fund positions from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bot 7K
  • Beans bot 7K
  • Meal bot 2K
  • Bean oil bot 5K

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

Bache sold 2000 G 450 calls

JPM bot 3000 H 400 puts

FI bot 1400 F 420 puts

ADM sold 1000 Z 420 straddles

 

Beans:
Rosenthal bot 2100 F 1300-1340 call spreads

FCS sold 1000 H 1220-1200 put spreads

Tenco bot 750 F 1320 calls

Tenco bot 500 F 1300-1340 call spreads

Tenco bot 400 F 1320 calls

GFI bot 600 F 1300 calls

ADM bot 300 F 1310 calls/sold 108 SF

ADM sold 250 F 1280 puts (Chinese pricing?)

RJO sold 300 H 1300 calls

 

Oil:

Rosenthal bot 1000 Z 41 puts

Rosenthal bot 400 H 39 puts

JPM bot 2000 F 42 calls

ADM bot 1000 F 41 puts

ADM sold 600 K 41 puts

RJO sold 200 F 43 calls

 

Meal:

Tenco bot 250 H 430 calls/sold 250 H 360 puts

Rosenthal bot 400 N 400/440/480 call flies

 

Crush quotes and players from yesterday

 

OPEN             CLOSE

FZZ       64-65.5          68-69.5

JAN      58.5-59          60-60.5

MCH    58-58.5          59-50

MAY    58-59              58.5-59

JLY        58-59              58.5-59.5

AUG     61-64              62-65

SEP       80-84              80-84.5

OCT      74-77              75-76

DEC      71-71.5           72-72.75

 

ABN sold 130 May at 57.75-58

 

ABN sold 40 July at 58

 

FC Stone sold 300 May at 57.75-58

 

New Edge sold 100 May at 58.5

 

RJO sold 100 Jan at 60

 

Oil share – FC Stone sold 200 oil/ 110 meal at 34.00%

 

Oil Share – Rosenthal sold 100 oil/80 meal at 33.90%

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Last weekly US crop progress report will be Monday . Report comes out at 3 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek come out Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule
  • Position day for December futures will be Wednesday Nov 27th (due to Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday) First notice day for Dec futures is Friday Nov 29th