News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.

– Mark Twain

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 10 ¾ at 1284 ½
  • CH up 2 at 427 ¼
  • WH up 2 ½ at 658
  • KC WH up 1 at 698 ½
  • MWH up a ½ at 707 ¾
  • SMF up 1.60 at 404.50
  • BOF up 59 at 4115
  • RRF up 1.50 at 1570

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 11,983
  • CH 24,070
  • WH 6,179
  • KC WH 872
  • MWH 228
  • SMF 3,891
  • BOF 13,769
  • RRF 34

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady to 1 higher
  • Meal 1.00 – 2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 55-75 higher
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Crude and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up 1.9%

Hang Seng down .5%

Shanghai Index basically unchanged

 

Flash November mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC at 50.4 vs. Oct final of 50.9
  • Eurozone at 51.5 as expected and vs. October final of 51.3
  • France at 47.8 (6 month low) expecting 49.5 and vs. October final of 49.1
  • Germany at 52.5 expecting 52.0 and vs. October final of 51.7

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 21K to 323K expecting 335K

 

China grain closings – beans down 9, corn up 12, meal up 8, palm oil up 118, bean oil up 80

 

Palm oil up 73 – 14 month high

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated 2013 palm oil ending stocks at 1.87 MMT down 30% from a year ago

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated 2013 palm oil output at 19.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 18.9 MMT

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated 2014 palm oil output at 19.5 MMT

 

Hearing Cuba bought 60-80,000 tons of US meal yesterday for Jan – March shipment

 

South Korea MFG canceled 65,000 optional origin feed wheat for March shipment due to high prices

 

Feed wheat at a $60 per ton premium to corn in East Asia – Dow Jones

 

Japan bought 133,480 tons of milling wheat for Dec- Feb shipment. Breakdown

  • 13,050 tons of western white US wheat
  • 10,240 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 28,266 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 53,790 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 28,134 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan bought 26,370 feed wheat and 69,870 feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for January shipment

 

South Korea seeks 200,000 tons of optional origin non-GM soybeans for 2015 shipment

 

Lebanon bought 20,000 tons of Romanian wheat for Dec shipment

 

UN bought 42K tons of Indian wheat for donation to Djibouti for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 109K durum wheat optional origin for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Jordan retenders for 100K feed barley for May-July shipment

 

India’s MMTC tenders to sell 55,000 tons of wheat for Dec –Jan shipment

 

Rains in the Midwest through Friday. Dry and cold weather this weekend into next week

 

Favorable South American weather

 

Weather concerns in Australia

 

Moving averages

  • SF 20 day 1279 ½
  • SF 50 day 1294
  • SF 100 day 1287
  • SF 200 day 1274
  • BOF 50 day 4141

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 618,100 expecting 375-475K
  • Corn ‘13/14 945,100 ‘14/15 37,600 expecting 750-950K
  • Beans ‘13/14 1.38 MMT expecting 650-850K
  • Meal ‘13/14 116,000 expecting 200-350,000
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 95,800 expecting 30-80K
  • Cotton ‘13/14 305,100 ‘14/15 13,200

 

Export Highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 618,100 MT reported for Japan (172,900 MT), South Korea (80,500 MT), Brazil (73,800 MT), Nigeria (60,300 MT), and the Philippines (42,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (1,300 MT). Exports of 551,500 MT were primarily to Brazil (127,700 MT), Nigeria (84,300 MT), China (59,100 MT), Indonesia (57,800 MT), and Japan (46,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 945,100 MT for 2013/2014 reported for Japan (403,000 MT, including 34,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (321,600 MT, including 313,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,700 MT), Mexico (275,800 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), Colombia (37,700 MT, including 32,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (23,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (201,400 MT). Net sales of 37,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 756,300 MT were primarily to China (339,700 MT), Mexico (210,900 MT), Japan (86,500 MT), Colombia (35,200 MT), and El Salvador (27,200 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,376,400 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (1,152,000 MT, including 324,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 70,100 MT), Mexico (174,700 MT), the Netherlands (95,300 MT, including 90,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Spain (72,100 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Saudi Arabia (65,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (465,200 MT) and Costa Rica (1,100 MT). Exports of 2,488,600 MT were primarily to China (1,926,100 MT), Taiwan (96,000 MT), the Netherlands (95,300 MT), Spain (72,100 MT), Egypt (63,100 MT), and France (59,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 116,000 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Ecuador (27,500 MT), Mexico (22,800 MT), Canada (16,200 MT), unknown destinations (11,000 MT), and Guatemala (8,500 MT, including 7,700 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Sri Lanka (400 MT). Exports of 148,400 MT were primarily to Venezuela (32,900 MT), Ecuador (27,500 MT), Canada (20,500 MT), Mexico (15,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (14,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 95,800 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for India (40,000 MT), unknown destinations (34,800 MT), Peru (14,500 MT), and Mexico (6,300 MT). Exports of 3,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (2,500 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 305,100 RB for 2013/2014 were reported for Turkey (117,600 RB), China (46,000 RB), Thailand (36,600 RB, including 500 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 500 RB), South Korea (21,800 RB), and Indonesia (21,400 RB). Net sales of 13,200 RB for 2014/2015 were reported for Turkey. Exports of 71,100 RB were primarily to China (32,200 RB), Mexico (8,200 RB), Thailand (5,000 RB), Turkey (4,300 RB), and Indonesia (3,900 RB). Net American Pima sales of 26,200 RB for 2013/2014 were reported for China (22,100 RB), Thailand (1,700 RB), Germany (900 RB), India (400 RB), and Japan (400 RB). Exports of 27,200 RB were primarily to China (23,000 RB), Pakistan (2,800 RB), Indonesia (600 RB), and Egypt (400 RB).

 

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 33 billion
  • Dec options expire on Friday – I will send an email with option open interest shortly after the opening
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Last weekly US crop progress report will be Monday Nov 25th
  • SGS and Intertek come out Monday with their Malaysian Nov 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • Position day for December futures will be Wednesday Nov 27th (due to Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday) First notice day for Dec futures is Friday Nov 29th