News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

People are just as happy as they make up their minds to be.

– Abraham Lincoln

 

USDA announced 110,000 US SRW wheat sold to Egypt for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up a ¼ at 1276 ½
  • CH down 1 ¾ at 424 ½
  • WH down 1 at 658 ¼
  • KC WH up a ½ at 702
  • MWH down 1 at 706 ¼
  • SMF down 1.50 at 403.40
  • BOF up 16 at 4040
  • RRF down 6 at 1578

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 7,255
  • CH 13,034
  • WH 4,255
  • KC WH 874
  • MWH 219
  • SMF 3,332
  • BOF 10,071
  • RRF 39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 higher
  • Rice 5-7 lower

 

Dollar , gold, and silver lower. Crude and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .3%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

Brazilian markets are closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

 

Fed to read minutes from the last FOMC two day policy meeting today at 1 pm CST

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 512,000 expecting a build of 900,000
  • Gas a build of 84,000 expecting a draw of 300,000
  • Distillates a draw of 4.9 MB expecting a draw of 600,000

 

China grain closings – beans down 31, corn up 8, meal down 9, palm oil down 10, bean oil down 4

 

Palm oil up 23

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports at 975,011 tons down 7.2% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports at 1.0 MMT down 2% from a month ago

 

TALK China seeking and or buying US beans for Jan – Feb shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 Brazilian bean cargoes for June shipment yesterday

 

South Korea MFG bought 184,000 tons of corn for April-May shipment – 121K tons from US and 63K tons from  Black Sea origin

 

Vietnam bought 240,000 Argentine origin soymeal for April-July shipment

 

South Korea bought 30,000 tons of Indian or China meal for Jan shipment

 

South Korea bought 40,000 tons of Argentine meal for Feb shipment

 

Bangladesh bought 50K Indian wheat for Dec shipment

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of wheat for May –June shipment

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 China corn imports at 7.0 MMT vs. 3.7 MMT in ‘12/13

 

IGC estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 7.2 MMT vs. 3.3 MMT a year ago

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 global corn demand at 922.0 MMT (record) up 6% from a year ago

 

Rosario Grains Exchange said Argentine farmers still have not sold 13 MMT of their ‘12/13 soybeans

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Nov 19th Russia has harvested 93.9 MMT of grain on 41.5 MH (94.3% of total area) with an average yield of 2.26 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 74.4 MMT of grain on 39.4 MH with an average yield of 1.91 TPH

 

Australian crop forecaster estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 24.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.9 MMT

 

Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 23.6 MMT

 

Reuters poll estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 24.0 MMT vs. last month survey estimate of 25.3 MMT

 

Favorable South American weather

 

Frost is eastern Australia may damage wheat crop

 

Rains in western Australia may damage wheat crop

 

Western Australia wheat harvest is about 10% complete

 

1 rice receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Jan bean 100 day moving average is 1286 ¾

 

Jan bean 200 day moving average is 1274 ¼

 

News from yesterday – I apologize for not putting out an afternoon letter yesterday.

  • Egypt GASC bought 120,000 tons of Russian wheat for Dec shipment
  • Iraq seeks 10,000 tons of sunflower oil
  • Safras e Mercado estimated 2014 total South American bean crop at 163.0 MMT up 4.5% from USDA estimate
  • Talk that a Chinese crusher washed out 1-2 cargoes of US beans
  • Jordan canceled tender for 100K optional origin feed barley for May-July shipment
  • FAO said typhoon in Philippines has damaged 153,500 hectares of crops including 77,476 hectares of rice and 21,000 hectares of corn
  • Philippines Grains Agency said Philippines will have to import an additional 500,000 tons of rice due to typhoon
  • Jan beans closed above the 200 day moving average of 1274 ½. Jan beans settled at 1276 ¼
  • Monday night trade Dec corn made a new contract low of 410 ¾ .
  • Open outcry option players from yesterday
    • JP Morgan sold 500 Jan beans 1280 puts at 22 ½-23
    • New Edge bought 2,400 Jan bean 1180/1160 put spreads at 1 ¼
    • New Edge bought 2,500 Sept bean 1060/1040 put spreads at 4 ¼
    • RJO sold 700 Dec bean 1290 straddles at 16 ½-18
    • New Edge bought 4,000 Dec corn 400/420 put spreads at 7 ¼
    • Jefferies bought 6,000 Dec corn 420 puts and sold 6,000 Jan corn 425 puts at 3 ½-3 ¾ credit
    • ICap bought 500 Dec wheat 650/660 call spreads at 2 ½
    • ICap bought 1,000 March wheat 66+0 calls at 22 ¾ and sold 450 March futures at 656
    • ADM sold 300 Dec meal 420 calls at 2.50-2.75
    • Jefferies bought 600 March meal 390 puts and sold 600 Jan meal 390 puts at 8.00 debit
    • Bungee bought 500 Jan meal 410 calls at 8-8.75
    • Macquarie sold 750 Dec bean oil 40 puts at 20 and sold 375 Dec futures at 4000
  • Estimated fund activity from yesterday
    • Wheat bought 3K
    • Corn bought 8K
    • Beans sold 5K
    • Meal sold 3K
    • Bean oil sold 1,500

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 571,940 open, up 25,434
  • Total corn 1,386,758 open, up 1,538
  • SF 269,613 open, down 8,107
  • Total beans 580,616 open, down 4,335
  • SMF 105,996 open, up 3,194
  • Total meal 285,278 open, down 320
  • BOF 123,526 open, up 3,516
  • Total bean oil 336,811 open, up 3,608
  • WH 190,373 open, up 13,985
  • Total wheat 412,959 open, down 14,432
  • KC WH 82,437 open, up 1,993
  • Total KC wheat 154,142 open, up 409

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 700,000
    • Gas a draw of 100,000
    • Distillates a draw of 500,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China’s HSBC flash Nov PMI comes out late tonight / early tomorrow morning
  • France, German, and Eurozone flash PMIs come out tomorrow morning
  • Argentina government to estimate ‘13/14 Argentina’s crops tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Dec options expire on Friday
  • Last weekly US crop progress report will be Monday Nov 25th
  • Position day for December futures will be Wednesday Nov 27th (due to Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday) First notice day for Dec futures is Friday Nov 29th