News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

– Albert Einstein

 

March corn is top step (spot month) this morning

 

USDA announced 240,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment 

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 1 at 1286 ½
  • CH up 2 ¼ at 423 ¼
  • WH up 3 ¾ at 656 ¼
  • KC WH up 3 ½ at 700
  • MWH up 2 at 707
  • SMF up .40 at 410.90
  • BOF down 12 at 4025
  • RRF down 2.50 at 1582

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,563
  • CH 14,290
  • WH 7,383
  • KC WH 286
  • MWH 139
  • SMF 3,344
  • BOF 7,521
  • RRF 48

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 lower
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal steady to .50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-15 lower
  • Rice 2-3 lower

 

Gold and stock market higher. Silver, crude oil, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei down .4%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai index down .1%

 

Lack of fresh news this morning

 

China grain closings – beans down 16, corn down 5, meal unchanged, palm oil down 22, bean oil down 34

 

Palm oil down 37

 

China rejected one US corn cargo because it contained unapproved GMO grain variety – this came out midday yesterday.

 

Hearing China bought 2 Brazilian bean cargoes for Feb shipment late last week

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 9-15th total crush volume at 1,314,700 tons down 4.57% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 9-15th total crush capacity utilization at 48.35% down 2.32% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st, 2013 – Nov 15th, 2013 at 8,791,500 tons up 19.72% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st , 2013 – Nov 15th, 2013 at 55,789,060 tons up 7.97% from a year ago
  • As of Nov 15th total imported bean stocks at 4.808 MMT up 40,700 tons from a week ago and down 8% from a year ago
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.507 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 7.0-7.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

South Korea MFG seeks 210,000 tons of optional origin corn for April – May shipment

 

Japan seeks 133,480 tons of milling wheat for Dec- Feb shipment. Breakdown

  • 13,050 tons of western white US wheat
  • 10,240 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 28,266 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 53,790 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 28,134 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Dr. Cordonnier’s weekly crop report

  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 90.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said about 70% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said about 23-25% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said about 45% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted

 

Russia bought 29,970 tons of intervention grain making the total since the program started on Oct 15th at 312,390 bought.

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s 2014 winter grain area at 7.73 MH down 4.1% from a year ago

 

30 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

115 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL . Total receipts registered is 170

 

10 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Midwest dry today and tomorrow rains in forecast Thursday.

 

Dec corn made a new contract low overnight of 410 ¾ . Yesterday’s contract low was 411 ½

 

Moving averages

  • SF 100 day 1286 ½
  • SF 200 day 1274 ½
  • SMF 50 day 410.20

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Harvested 91% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average. Market was expecting 87-91% harvested.

Beans

  • Harvested 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average. Market was expecting 94-98% harvested.

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 63% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 34% good to excellent a year ago . Market was expecting conditions to be unchanged from a week ago.
  • Emerged 89% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average

Cotton

  • Harvested 68% vs. 56% a week ago and vs. 75% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 546,445 open, up 26,239
  • Total corn 1,385,306 open, up 19,206
  • SF 277,729 open, down 1,241
  • Total beans 584,960 open, up 4,008
  • SMF 102,781 open, up 745
  • Total meal 285,757 open, up 905
  • BOF 120,031 open, up 2,065
  • Total bean oil 333,281 open, down 585
  • WH 176,372 open, up 7,813
  • Total wheat 415,520 open, up 2,829
  • KC WH 80,442 open, up 1,346
  • Total KC wheat 153,728 open, down 205

 

Open interest in Dec options – Dec options expire on Friday

  • Corn
    • 400 calls 15,813
    • 400 puts 72,888
    • 410 calls 1,425
    • 410 puts 15,020
    • 420 calls 7,079
    • 420 puts 42,326
  • Beans
    • 1250 calls 869
    • 1250 puts 6,883
    • 1260 calls 1,469
    • 1260 puts 3,073
    • 1280 calls 2,946
    • 1280 puts 2,934
    • 1300 calls 5,845
    • 1300 puts 1,836
  • Meal
    • 400 calls 4,039
    • 400 puts 9,216
    • 410 calls 3,572
    • 410 puts 2,991
    • 420 calls 3,160
    • 420 puts 5,520
  • Bean oil
    • 40 calls 1,262
    • 40 puts 3,095
    • 40.5 calls 606
    • 40.5 puts 607
    • 41 calls 1,625
    • 41 puts 3,568
  • Wheat
    • 640 calls 1,789
    • 640 puts 4,591
    • 650 calls 5,234
    • 650 puts 9,102

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Argentina government to estimate ‘13/14 Argentina’s crops on Thursday
  • Dec options expire on Friday
  • Last weekly US crop progress report will be Monday Nov 25th