News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

When one door of happiness closes, another opens; but often we look so long at the closed door that we do not see the one which has been opened for us.

– Helen Keller

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 1 ¼ at 1281 ¾
  • CZ down 4 ¼ at 417 ¾
  • WH up 1 ¼ at 655 ¾
  • KC WH up ¾ at 701
  • MWH unchanged at 706 ½
  • SMF up .70 at 406.40
  • BOF down 10 at 4064
  • RRF up 1.50 at 1578

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,675
  • CZ 38,548
  • WH 4,773
  • KC WH 343
  • MWH 171
  • SMF 3,868
  • BOF 10,904
  • RRF 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 higher
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil 10-15 lower
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Gold, silver, crude and dollar lower. Stock market higher

 

Nikkei unchanged

Hang Seng up 2.7%

Shanghai Index up 2.9%

 

China grain closings – beans down 24, corn down 4, meal down 43, palm oil down 48, bean oil down 86

 

Palm oil down 24.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association or GAPKI Indonesia palm oil data

  • October palm oil exports at 1.86 MMT up 13% from September
  • Estimated 2013 palm oil output at 27-28 MMT
  • Said Indonesia exported 13.68 MMT of palm oil between Jan – Oct vs. 2012 total at 11.54 MMT
  • Estimated 2013 palm oil exports at 19.0 MMT

 

Market talk – China’s bean needs are mostly covered through January

 

Market talk – China has not covered futures

 

Hearing China bought 5 cargoes of US beans last week

 

Hearing China bought 10-13 Brazilian bean cargoes last week for March –May shipment

 

Hearing Vietnam bought Argentine meal for Jan shipment on Friday

 

Hearing Philippines bought 120,000 Argentine meal last week for Feb shipment

 

Hearing Philippines bought 1 cargo of India meal last week for Feb shipment

 

South Korea bought 10K China non-GM beans for Dec shipment

 

South Korea flour mills bought 47,200 US milling wheat for March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi bought 136,000 tons of US corn for April shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 113,000 tons of optional origin corn (possibly Black Sea origin) for April shipment

 

South Korea said April corn needs are 50% covered

 

Lebanon seeks 20,000 optional origin wheat for December shipment

 

Egypt supplies minister said Egypt has enough wheat supply through March 5th

 

Russia’s Stats Service said Russia exported 12.49 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 13th up 13% from a year ago

 

AgRural said Friday that Brazil has 69% bean planted vs. 59% a week ago vs. 67% a year ago and vs. five year average of 72%

 

Brazil told China that bean shipments will flow much easier than a year ago

 

Citi Group estimated 2014 average bean price at $11.80

 

Citi Group estimated 2014 average corn price at $4.25

 

Citi Group estimate 2014 average wheat price at $6.90

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘13/14 global oilseed production at 486.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 480.6 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 production of 459.0 MMT including
    • Soybeans at 286.5 MMT vs. previous of 281.3 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 267.3 MMT
    • Rapeseed at 67.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 63.9 MMT
    • Sunseeds at 40.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.6 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 35.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total global oilseed demand at 470.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 474.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 use of 451.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global oilseed ending stocks at 91.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 75.3 MMT
    • Global soybean ending stocks at 77.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.6 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 62.3 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly crop report as of 11/14/13

  • Corn planting is 40% complete vs. 54% a year ago
  • Estimated corn planting area at 5.7 MH
  • Bean planting is 26% vs. 30% a year ago
  • Estimated bean planting area at 20.7 MH
  • Sunseed planting is 69% vs. 68% a week ago

 

France Agrimer weekly France crop report as of Nov 11th

  • Winter wheat planting is 84% complete vs. 81% a week ago vs. 85% a year ago
  • Corn harvest is 58% complete vs. 50% a week ago and vs. 88% a year ago

 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Friday proposed lowering the levels of renewable fuels to be blended into gasoline and diesel in 2014

 

India’s government said as of Nov 14th wheat was planted on 5.8 MH vs. 6.3 MH a year ago

 

Anacer said Italy imported 2.37 MMT of corn between Jan – August vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago

 

Anacer said Italy imported 2.3 MMT of soft wheat between Jan – August vs. 2.85 MMT a year ago

 

Anacer said Italy imported 870,655 tons of durum wheat between Jan – August vs. 941,050 tons a year ago

 

9 bean receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL total registered now is 285

 

Thunderstorms and heavier than expected rains in central and western Midwest this weekend

 

Hot this week in Argentina with cooler temps and rains in forecast for the weekend into next week

 

Favorable crop weather in Brazil

 

Dec corn contract low is 415 ½

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Nov 12th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 87,215
  • KC wheat long 18,567
  • Corn short 191,799
  • Beans long 85,224
  • Meal long 22,879
  • Bean oil short 34,489

 

Jan bean moving averages

  • 20 day 1283
  • 50 day 1286 ¼
  • 200 day 1275

 

Open interest in some Dec options – Dec options expire Friday

  • CZ 420 calls 5,422 open – puts 48,495 open
  • SZ 1280 calls 3,064 open – puts 3,160 open
  • WZ 650 calls 5,094 open – puts 9,581 open
  • SMZ 400 calls 4,063 open – put 10,493 open
  • BOZ 40 calls 1,262 open – puts 3,097 open

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 402,195 open, down 22,389
  • CH 520,215 open, up 14,956
  • Total corn 1,367,458 open, down 3,559
  • SF 279,083 open, down 8,122
  • Total beans 581,180 open, down 5,011
  • SMF 102,156 open, up 5,084
  • Total meal 285,020 open, down 1,881
  • BOF 117,966 open, up 1,904
  • Total bean oil 333,989 open, up 122
  • WH 168,791 open, up 5,384
  • Total wheat 413,122 open, down 1,873
  • KC WH 79,097 open, up 2,770
  • Total KC wheat 153,985 open, down 1,424

 

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST expecting
    • Corn harvest 87-91% complete
    • Bean harvest 94-98% complete
    • Winter wheat condition unchanged from a week ago
  • March corn will be top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports on Wednesday
  • Argentina government to estimate ‘13/14 Argentina’s crops on Thursday
  • Dec options expire on Friday
  • Last weekly US crop progress report will be Monday Nov 25th