News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You can design and create, and build the most wonderful place in the world. But it takes people to make the dream a reality.

– Walt Disney

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage estimates . Previously they estimated

  • All wheat acres at 57.7 million
  • Corn acres at 91.7 million
  • Bean acres at 83.9 million

 

NOPA October crush report comes out today at 11 am CST . Expecting

  • Crush average estimate 154.3 MB  vs. Sept crush of 108.68 MB and vs. Oct 2012 crush of 153,536 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.491 billion lbs. vs. Sept bean oil stocks of 1.372 B and vs. Oct 2012 bean oil stocks of 2.188 B
  • No estimate is given for meal exports. In September meal exports were 306,226 tons and in Oct 2012 meal exports were 819,786 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 6 ¼ at 1307 ¼
  • CZ up a ½ at 427
  • WH up ¾ at 656
  • KC WH down a ¼ at 704 ½
  • MWH up 2 ¼ at 712 1/4
  • SMF down 4.00 at 414.90
  • BOF up 15 at 4139
  • RRF down 1 at 1583

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 8,978
  • CZ 15,926
  • WH 4,642
  • KC WH 560
  • MWH 329
  • SMF 3,835
  • BOF 6,038
  • RRF 37

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC Wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold, silver, and dollar lower. Crude and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 2%

Hang Seng up 1.7%

Shanghai Index up 1.7%

 

China grain closings – beans up 1, corn up 3, meal up 2, palm oil unchanged, bean oil up 34.

 

Palm oil up 20

 

Brazil is on holiday today.

 

Market expecting EIA to make an announcement today for the 2014 RFS Mandate

 

Malaysia government raised palm oil export tax for December to 5% from 4.5% currently.

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports at 734,476 tons down 8.2% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports at 744,974 tons down 4.6% from a month ago

 

South Korea bought 50-55K tons of optional origin soymeal for April shipment

 

TALK of Brazil buying/seeking US HRW wheat yesterday

 

Libya bought 50K optional origin (possibly German) wheat for Dec- Feb shipment

 

Lebanon bought 20,000 Romanian wheat for Dec shipment

 

Analysts expecting China to import 14.0 MMT in November and December mostly from the US, which would be a record for these two months, vs. 10.0 MMT a year ago

 

Japan seeks 43,000 food wheat and 1,000 food and malting barley via SBS tender for Feb shipment

 

National Development and Reform Commission said China will continue to buy domestic corn and soybeans for reserves until April 30th 2014.

 

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 8.8 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of 11/14 Ukraine has harvested 58.41 MMT of grain on 14.965 MH (95% of total area) with an average yield of 3.9 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 43.871 MMT of grain on 14.145 MH with an average yield of 3.1 TPH

 

Midwest weather –  rains in forecast for this weekend, dry weather in forecast for next week

 

Scattered thunderstorms in Brazil may delay plantings

 

Eastern Argentina favorable crop weather

 

Western Argentina hot and dry

 

94 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

65 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

Total bean receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon is 294

 

9 bean oil receipts canceled out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

230 bean deliveries with the date at 11/14/13

  • House Term issued 128

 

5 mini bean deliveries with the date at 11/14/13

 

Jan beans 50 day moving average is 1301 ¼

 

Jan bean oil 50 day moving average is 4164

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimates

  • ‘12/13 veg oil imports at 10.7 MMT (record) up 5% from a year ago
  • ‘12/13 veg oil output at 8.09 MMT vs. 9.5 MMT a year ago
  • ‘12/13 palm oil imports at 2.2 MMT up 38% from a year ago
  • ‘12/13 edible oil imports at 10.38 MMT
  • ‘12/13 oilseed imports at 31 MMT up 4.6% from a year ago
  • ‘12/13 oilseed area at 27.5 MH
  • ‘12/13 bean output at 14.7 MMT
  • ‘12/13 rapeseed output at 7.8 MMT

 

Weekly Argentine crop report from Buenos Aires Grains Exchange

  • Bean planting is 21.8% complete vs. 10.8% a week ago and unchanged from a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean planting area at 20.2 MH unchanged from previous
  • Corn planting is 42% complete vs. 38.8% a week ago
  • Corn planting area for ‘13/14 estimated at 3.46 MH unchanged from previous
  • Wheat harvest 6.9% complete vs. 3.6% a week ago and vs. 14.5% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 10.35 MMT unchanged from previous

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat at ‘13/14 287,800 ‘14/15 900 (expecting 350-550K)
  • Corn at ‘13/14 1.2 MMT   (expecting 800K – 1.0M)
  • Beans at  ‘13/14 848,5800 ‘14/15 60,600 (expecting 900K – 1.2 M)
  • Meal at ‘13/14 283,200 (expecting 200-350K)
  • Bean oil at ‘13/14 7,200  (expecting 25-50K)
  • Cotton at ‘13/14 472,700 ‘14/15 9,200

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 287,800 MT reported for Nigeria (84,800 MT), unknown destinations (57,700 MT), Thailand (50,000 MT), Indonesia (40,000 MT), and Mexico (19,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for China (1,200 MT) and the Leeward Windward Islands (800 MT). Net sales of 900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 382,800 MT were primarily to China (58,800 MT), Nigeria (51,800 MT), South Korea (49,600 MT), Taiwan (48,100 MT), and the Philippines (35,700 MT)
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,202,900 MT for 2013/2014 reported for Mexico (301,400 MT), Japan (226,800 MT, including 50,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 73,000 MT), South Korea (150,900 MT), China (115,700 MT, including 47,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,400 MT), unknown destinations (90,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (74,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Venezuela (5,000 MT). Exports of 463,800 MT were primarily to Mexico (134,800 MT), China (121,000 MT), Japan (51,900 MT), Peru (32,200 MT), and Guatemala (28,600 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 848,500 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (667,100 MT, including 172,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 132,700 MT), the Netherlands (91,300 MT, including 91,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (63,100 MT), Spain (58,100 MT, switched from the United Kingdom), and Bangladesh (50,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (231,000 MT) and the United Kingdom (60,000 MT). Net sales of 60,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for China (60,000 MT) and Japan (15,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Morocco (15,000 MT). Exports of 2,065,300 MT were primarily to China (1,515,300 MT), the Netherlands (91,300 MT), Thailand (78,700 MT), Mexico (71,300 MT), and Spain (58,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 283,200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Thailand (100,000 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (44,300 MT), Poland (23,900 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), the United Kingdom (20,600 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (20,300 MT). Exports of 301,200 MT were primarily to Vietnam (49,800 MT), the Philippines (49,300 MT), Mexico (31,700 MT), and Venezuela (30,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 7,200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (2,400 MT), El Salvador (1,900 MT), Guatemala (1,500 MT), and Nicaragua (1,400 MT). Exports of 7,700 MT were primarily to Mexico (2,900 MT), El Salvador (1,900 MT), Nicaragua (1,400 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 472,700 RB for 2013/2014 were reported for China (177,800 RB), Turkey (148,300 RB), Vietnam (43,600 RB), Peru (17,100 RB), and Thailand (13,700 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan). Net sales of 9,200 RB for 2014/2015 were reported for Turkey. Exports of 66,000 RB were primarily to Mexico (19,300 RB), China (16,800 RB), Turkey (6,600 RB), Thailand (4,800 RB), and Guatemala (3,500 RB). Net American Pima sales of 32,500 RB for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for China (33,600 RB, including 3,600 RB switched from India), Indonesia (2,600 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from India), Italy (1,000 RB), and Thailand (900 RB switched from India), were partially offset by decreases for India (5,500 RB). Exports of 11,700 RB were primarily to China (8,700 RB), India (1,900 RB), Indonesia (600 RB), and Pakistan (300 RB).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 424,836 open, down 27,478
  • CH 505,242 open, up 19,595
  • Total corn 1,371,219 open, down 442
  • SF 287,369 open, up 2,407
  • Total beans 586,315 open, up 5,097
  • SMF 97,069 open , up 2,189
  • Total meal 286,998 open, up 23
  • BOF 116,062 open, up 6,273
  • Total bean oil 333,864 open, up 1,046
  • WH 163,465 open, up 10,434
  • Total wheat 415,092 open, up 6,951
  • KC WH 76,327 open, up 4,462
  • Total KC wheat 155,430 open, up 848

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Argentina government to estimate ‘13/14 Argentina’s crops on Thursday Nov 21st
  • Dec options expire on Friday, Nov 22