News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The only time to eat diet food is while you’re waiting for the steak to cook.”

― Julia Child

 

Today is last trading day for Nov futures. Futures expire at noon CST

 

Jan meal is top step (spot month) today.

 

USDA announced 40K tons of US bean oil sold to India for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 4 ¾ at 1310 ¼
  • CZ up  a ¼ at 430
  • WZ up 6 ½ at 652
  • KC WZ up 5 ¾ at 707 ¾
  • MWZ up 3 ½ at 703
  • SMF down 2.70 at 415.40
  • BOF up 17 at 4142
  • RRF down 7 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 9,446
  • CZ 18,672
  • WZ 8,900
  • KC WZ 1,451
  • MWZ 174
  • SMF 2,671
  • BOF 4,070
  • RRF 19

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Stock market , dollar, gold, and silver higher . Crude lower

 

Nikkei up 2.1%

Hang Seng up .8%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at 730 am CST at -2K to 339K expecting 332K

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 599,000 expecting a build of 1.0 M
  • Gas  a draw of 1.7 MB expecting a draw of 700,000
  • Distillates a build of 606,000 expecting a draw of 1.3 MB

 

Palm oil down 16

 

China grain market closings – beans up 4, corn down 1, meal down 17, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 40

 

Brazil bought 60,000 or more US HRW wheat yesterday for Dec shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Jan shipment yesterday

 

Egypt FIHC bought 25,000 tons of bean oil for Dec shipment

 

Japan bought 129,445 tons of milling wheat for Dec/Feb shipment . Breakdown

  • 30,456 tons western white US wheat
  • 29,890 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 45,594 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 23,505 tons of Australian white wheat

 

South Korea Nofi canceled tender to import 70K optional origin corn for April shipment due to high prices

 

South Korea feed mills have bought 30K US milling wheat for March shipment

 

Dow Jones said South Korea feed mills have their corn needs covered through February, they have bought 10 cargoes of corn for March shipment and bought 2 cargoes of corn for April shipment.

 

Dalian Commodity Exchange President estimated China’s 2013 bean imports at a record high of 66.0 MMT

 

Dalian Commodity Exchange President estimated China’s 2013 palm oil imports at 6.0 MMT vs. 6.34 MMT a year ago

 

Chinese analysts estimated ‘13/14 bean imports at 63.0-68.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

  • COFCO estimated at 68.0 MMT
  • CNGOIC estimated at 63.0 MMT
  • Louis Dreyfus estimated it at 67.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 DDGS imports at 4.5 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine planted winter grains on 7.726 MH vs. initial estimate of 8.2 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said 85% of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in good to fair condition.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 11.06 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 13th up 8% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Stats Service said Ukraine’s Nov 1st grain stocks were at 23.3 MMT up 10% from a year ago

 

Strategie Grain estimated ‘13/14 EU 28 soft wheat planting area at 24.1 MH up 900,000 hectares from a year ago

 

Strategie Grain estimated EU ‘13/14 soft wheat production at 134.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 135.2 MMT and vs. 125.5 MMT a year ago

 

Strategie Grain estimated EU ‘13/14 corn crop at 64.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 64.9 MMT and vs. 57.6 MMT a year ago

 

Strategie Grain estimated EU ‘13/14 total grain crop at 301.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 301.1 MMT and vs. 278.5 MMT a year ago

 

India’s government said India has planted wheat on 5.82 MH between Oct 1st – Nov 14th vs. 6.47 MH a year ago

 

India’s government said India has planted oilseeds on 5.39 MH vs. 4.39 MH a year ago

 

India’s government said India has planted cereals on 3.38 MH vs. 3.54 MH a year ago

 

1 rice delivery with the date at 9/13/13

 

10 bean deliveries with the date moving to 11/07/13

 

10 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

1 new rice receipt was registered yesterday afternoon

 

Dry in Midwest today and tomorrow. Rains in forecast over the weekend. Dry weather returns next week

 

Favorable crop weather in South America

 

Jan bean 50 day moving average is 1302 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 441,050 open, down 50,306
  • CH 485,535 open, up 35,656
  • Total corn 1,360,253 open, down 10,819
  • SX 286 open, down 727
  • SF 277,109 open, down 4,964
  • Total beans 571,849 open, down 6,135
  • SMF 94,877 open, up 4,521
  • Total meal 287,080 open, up 1,253
  • BOF 109,789 open, up 1,031
  • Total bean oil 332,935 open, down 1,271
  • WZ 142,345 open, down 15,296
  • WH 153,230 open, up 2,481
  • Total wheat 405,631 open, up 2,481
  • KC WZ 38,728 open, down 9,365
  • KC WH 71,862 open, up 5,060
  • Total KC wheat 151,567 open, down 3,158

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +35 Billion
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw 700,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • EPA expected to announce the 2014 RFS this week
  • Solvent Extractors of India expected to come out later this week with India’s October import data
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their US 2014 acreage estimates
  • NOPA October crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Expecting
    • Crush average estimate 154.3 MB  vs. Sept crush of 108.68 MB and vs. Oct 2012 crush of 153,536 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.491 billion lbs. vs. Sept bean oil stocks of 1.372 B and vs. Oct 2012 bean oil stocks of 2.188 B
    • No estimate is given for meal exports. In September meal exports were 306,226 tons and in Oct 2012 meal exports were 819,786 tons
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Indonesian Palm Oil Association may release Oct export data next week. They do not release stocks and output data.
  • Dec options expire on Nov 22