News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Part of the secret of a success in life is to eat what you like and let the food fight it out inside.  ~Mark Twain

 

Jan bean oil is top step (spot month) today.

 

March KC and Chicago wheat is top step (spot month) today.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 ¾ at 1308 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 433 ¾
  • WZ up 2 ¾ at 648
  • WH up 2 ¼ at 658
  • KC WZ up 2 ¼ at 705 ½
  • KC WH up 2 at 706
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 702 ½
  • SMZ down 3.10 at 424.60
  • SMF down 2.80 at 418.60
  • BOZ up 10 at 4085
  • BOF up 11 at 4116
  • RRF down 2.50 at 1550.5

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,982
  • CZ 16,843
  • WZ 6,066
  • WH 4,807
  • KC WZ 770
  • KC WH 670
  • MWZ 104
  • SMZ 3,979
  • SMF 4,114
  • BOZ 8,697
  • BOF 5,698
  • RRF 17

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal  2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold, silver, and crude oil higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .2%

Hang Seng down 1.9%

Shanghai index down 1.8%

 

Asian stocks dropped after China’s leaders failed to provide a clear direction on policy over the coming decade. – Dow Jones.

 

Palm oil up 3

 

China grain market closings – beans unchanged, corn up 2, meal up 245, palm up 114, and bean oil up  64

 

Japan and Mexico have been buying US corn for Jan – March shipment

 

Hearing China has bought up to 200,000 tons of Canadian and Australian canola oil.

 

Japan seeks 129,445 tons of milling wheat for Dec/Feb shipment . Breakdown

  • 30,456 tons western white US wheat
  • 29,890 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 45,594 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 23,505 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan bought 10,390 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K tons of feed wheat and 200K feed barely via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Tunisia canceled tender for 92K tons of durum wheat optional origin for Dec/Jan shipment

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 8.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5 MMT

  • Estimated US wheat imports at 4.3 MMT
  • Estimated Australian wheat imports at 2+ MMT
  • China has bought 4.5 MMT of Australian and US wheat so far this season

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 rice imports at 5.0 MMT –record vs. previous estimate of4.0 MMT

 

Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s November bean imports at 5.95 MMT vs. October estimate of 4.119 MMT

 

Indonesian analyst estimated 2013 palm oil exports at 18.5-19.0 MMT vs. GAPKI estimate of 17-18 MMT

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 all wheat crop at 33.2 MMT vs. 27.2 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 all wheat ending stocks at 8.2 MMT vs. 5.1 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 wheat domestic use at 10.0 MMT vs. 9.6 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 20.5 MMT vs.6.0 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 13.1 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 corn ending stocks at 2.5 MMT vs. 1.6 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 domestic corn use at 11.6 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago

 

Canadian attaché estimated ‘13/14 corn imports at 400,000 tons vs. 549,000 a year ago

 

CBH estimated ‘13/14 Australian wheat crop at 26.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.9 MMT and vs. 22.1 MMT a year ago

 

CBH estimated ‘13/14 Australian wheat exports at 17.0 MMT

 

CBH estimated ‘13/14 western Australian wheat crop at 9.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.7 MMT

 

India’s government said as of Nov 11th India has planted 15.2 MH of wheat vs. 6.5 MH a year ago

 

Russia bought 21,330 tons of intervention grain . Total since 10/15 is 282,420 tons

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 winter grain area at 14.7-14.8 MH vs. 16.4 MH

 

Russia Ag Min estimated 2014 grain production at 90.0 MMT including 50 MMT of wheat unchanged from 2013 estimate

 

Russia Ag Min said as of 11/12/13 87.7% of Russian winter grain crop has been planted

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 20.0 MMT unchanged from previous

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia has exported 12.0 MMT of grain between July – Oct 31st

 

Russian Grain Union estimated ‘13/14 grain exports to Turkey at 4.2 MMT

 

Russian Grain Union estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 20.7 MMT vs. 22.3 MMT a year ago

 

Thai Commerce Ministry said it will offer 450,000 tons of rice from reserves in November

 

CME lowers wheat futures initial margins for specs by 17.5% to $2,228 per contract from $2,700

 

CME lowers bean futures initial margins for specs by 17.1% to $3,915 per contract from $4,725

 

Midwest forecast dry through Friday , rains in forecast this weekend, dry weather returns next week.

 

68 soybean deliveries with the date moving to 11/06/13

 

26 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

10 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll.

 

Dec bean oil 50 day moving average is 4146

 

Jan bean oil 50 day is 4174

 

France Agrimer ‘13/14 French crop estimates

  • Soft wheat production at 36.9 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 35.62 MMT
  • Soft wheat ending stocks at 2.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MMT
  • Non EU wheat exports at 11.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 9.9 MMT a year ago
  • EU wheat exports at 6.94 MMT vs. 7.18 MMT a year ago
  • Corn production at 15.15 MMT vs. 15.38 MMT a year ago
  • Corn ending stocks at 2.95 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.7 MMT
  • Hard wheat production at 1.7 MMT vs. 2.4 MMT a year ago
  • Barley production at 10.37 MMT vs. 11.35 MMT a year ago

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Harvested 84% vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 79% five year average. Expecting 80-87% complete

 

Beans

  • Harvested 91% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average. Expecting 91-95% complete

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 65% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 36% a year ago. Expecting unchanged to 1% higher from a week ago.
  • Planted 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average
  • Emerged 84% vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 43% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Harvested 56% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 492,708 open, down 27,616
  • Total corn 1,372,387 open, down 1,582
  • SX 1,013 open, down 1,164
  • SF 282,090 open, up 837
  • Total beans 580,686 open, up 7,026
  • SMZ 90,181 open, down 755
  • SMF 90,353 open, up 4,559
  • Total meal 285,939 open, up 4,759
  • BOZ 96,752 open, down 10,968
  • BOF 108,758 open, up 3,841
  • Total bean oil 334,210 open, down 4,633
  • WZ 157,528 open, down 8,492
  • WH 139,271 open, up 11,130
  • Total wheat 403,284 open, up 5,830
  • KC WZ 48,115 open, down 5,367
  • KC WH 66,802 open, up 5,329
  • Total KC wheat 154,747 open, up 853

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report will comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Tomorrow is last trading day for November futures
  • Jan meal will be top step tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • EPA expected to announce the 2014 RFS this week
  • Solvent Extractors of India expected to come out later this week with India’s October import data
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Friday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • Indonesian Palm Oil Association may release Oct export data next week. They do not release stocks and output data.
  • Dec options expire on Nov 22