News From The Grain Floor

I came from nothing, and as much as I like the toys, I can live without them

Vincent Chase

 

USDA announced 116K tons of beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 35,000 tons of bean oil sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 3 ¾ at 1304 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 436 ¼
  • WZ up 1 ¾ at 648
  • KC WZ up 2 at 708 ¼
  • MWZ up 1 ½ at 706
  • SMZ up .30 at 422.40
  • BOZ up 40 at 4082
  • RRF up 10.5 at 1573.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,860
  • CZ 22,606
  • WZ 6,517
  • KC WZ 594
  • MWZ 157
  • SMZ 3,403
  • BOZ 11,875
  • RRF 43

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil 35-45 higher
  • Rice 10-12 higher

 

Gold higher. Dollar, silver, crude, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 2.2%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai index up .8%

 

China approves economic reform guidelines following a four day Communist Party policy meeting. – Dow Jones

 

Palm oil up 71 – concerns massive typhoon in the Philippines may tighten supplies of other veg oils and shift demand to palm oil – Reuters

 

Indonesia October data estimates based on a Bloomberg survey of 5 analysts

  • Palm oil stocks estimated at 2.04 MMT (16 month low) vs. 2.23 MMT in Sept and vs. 2.6 MMT a year ago
  • Palm oil output estimated at 2.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.7  MMT up 3.7% from a month ago

 

Indonesian Veg Oil Association estimated Nov palm oil stocks at 1.8 MMT

 

China grain closings – beans down 9, corn up 1, meal down 10, palm oil down 36, and bean oil down 4.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Nov 2 – 8th total crush volume at 1,377,800 tons up 2.62% from a week ago
  • For the week Nov 2 – 8th total crush capacity utilization at 50.67% up 1.29% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st , 2013 – Nov 8th , 2013 at 7,476,800 tons up 20.45% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1s t – Nov 8th , 2013 at 54, 474,360 tons up 7.80% from a year ago
  • As of Nov 11th total imported bean stocks at 4.77 MMT up 60,800 tons from a week ago and down 10.21% from a year ago
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.507 MMT (above the average crush need of 5.5 MMT) vs. previous estimate of 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 7.0-7.2 MMT (above the average crush need of 5.5 MMT) vs. previous estimate of 6.2-6.8 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec 2013 – March 2014 rapeseed oil imports at 200,000 tons

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20,000 tons of bean oil and 20,000 tons of sunflower for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 30,000 tons of bean oil for Dec shipment

 

Mexico was pricing US corn for Jan – March shipment yesterday

 

China was seeking US beans for Jan – March shipment yesterday

 

Analysts said China’s soybean needs are fulfilled through year end

 

Tunisia seeks 92,000 tons durum wheat optional origin for Dec Jan shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Dec Jan shipment

 

South Korea Seoul Feed Co. to import 15,000 tons of Russian corn between Dec – March

 

South Korea Seoul Feed Co. buys about 30,000 tons of corn per month from the US, South America, and or the Ukraine

 

South Africa bought 32,259 tons of Ukraine wheat last week

 

Goldman Sachs cuts 3 and 6 month corn price forecast at $4 vs. previous forecast of $4.25

 

Goldman Sachs average ‘14/15 bean price forecasted at $9.50

 

Goldman Sachs average ‘14/15 corn price forecasted at $3.75

 

Goldman Sachs estimated ‘14/15 US bean planting area at 83.0 MA vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 76.5 MA

 

Goldman Sachs estimated ‘14/15 US corn planting area at 92.5 MA vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 95.3 MA

 

Macquarie estimated ‘13/14 Argentine wheat exports at 3.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 4.5 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has planted 85.7% of the corn crop vs. 77.3% a week ago and vs. 70.8% average

 

Safras e Mercado said Mato Grosso has planted 55% of their corn crop vs. 40% average

 

AgRural Brazilian crop update

  • Bean planting 59% complete vs. 48% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 59% 5 year average
  • Bean area estimated at 29.329 MH (record) up 5.8% from a year ago
  • Mato Grosso bean planting is 85% complete vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 79% a year ago
  • Said as of Oct 31st Brazil had sold 34% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 58% a year ago

 

Hearing Argentine corn planting is about 3 week behind average at 36% complete

 

Russian’s Ag Min said as of Nov 11th Russia harvested 92.6 MMT of grain on 41.2 MH (93.5% of total area) with an average yield of 2.25 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 73.3 MMT of grain on 38.7 MH with an average yield of 1.89 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 18-20 MMT vs. 15.69 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. 27.2 MMT in ‘11/12

 

Russia bought 25,920 tons of intervention grain. Making the total bought since program started on Oct 15th at 261,090 tons

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 2.8 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 12th

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.0 MMT of grain in October up 62% from September and up 4.4% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of 11/12/13 Kazak harvested 20.8 MMT of grain or 99.3% of total area

 

France Farm Minister estimated 2013 corn crop at 15.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.5 MMT up 1.2% from a year ago and vs. 15.2 MMT five year average.

 

France Farm Minister estimated 2013 corn average yield at 8.68 TPH vs. previous estimate of 8.79 TPH

 

France Farm Minister estimated 2013 soft wheat crop at 36.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 36.825 MMT up 3.4% from a year ago

 

Improved planting conditions in South America

 

29 soybean deliveries with the date moving to Nov 4th

 

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll

 

Jan bean 50 day moving average is 1304

 

October highs in Jan beans was 1312 ¾

 

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 444 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 521,023 open, down 45,406
  • Total corn 1,375,002 open, down 13,178
  • SX 2,177 open, down 1,023
  • SF 281,256 open, down 1,215
  • Total beans 273,660 open, up 513
  • SMZ 90,997 open, down 4,989
  • Total meal 281,280 open, up 2,153
  • BOZ 107,748 open, down 2,646
  • Total bean oil 338,931 open, up 4,119
  • WZ 166,129 open , down 12,937
  • Total wheat 397,677 open, up 1,507
  • KC WZ 53,482 open, down 4,759
  • KC WH 61,473 open, up 4,436
  • Total KC wheat 153,899 open, up 664

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report will comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report will  comes out today at 3 pm CST expecting
    • Corn harvest 80-87% complete
    • Bean harvest 91-95% complete
    • Winter wheat condition steady to up 1% from a week ago
  • Jan bean oil will be top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • March wheat will be top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • On Thursday weekly US jobless claims , weekly DOE numbers, weekly ethanol plant production, and weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report will come out.
  • Solvent Extractors of India comes out later this week with India’s October import data
  • Last trading day for Nov futures is Thursday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Friday with their Malaysian Nov 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • Indonesian Palm Oil Association may release Oct export data next week. They do not release stocks and output data.
  • Dec options expire on Nov 22