News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

On this Veterans Day, let us remember the service of our veterans, and let us renew our national promise to fulfill our sacred obligations to our veterans and their families who have sacrificed so much so that we can live free.
Dan Lipinski

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 ¼ at 1290 ¾
  • CZ up 3 ¼ at 430
  • WZ up 2 at 651 ¾
  • KC WZ up 3 ½ at 712
  • MWZ up 1 ½ at 709 ½
  • SMZ down 2.60 at 419.70
  • BOZ up 1 at 4025
  • RRF down 2 at 1567.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,828
  • CZ 26,879
  • WZ 7,937
  • KC WZ 904
  • MWZ 241
  • SMZ 3,527
  • BOZ 9,038
  • RRF 39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minn wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Silver and stock market higher. Dollar , crude, and gold lower

 

Nikkei up 1.3%

Hang Seng up 1.4%

Shanghai Index up .2%

 

Today is Veterans Day. US government is closed

 

Important political meeting in China continues, ends tomorrow  . China’s new leadership is expected to divulge a blueprint for economic policy for the next 10 years.

 

Palm oil up 20

 

China grain market closings – beans up 25, corn up 4, meal up 54, palm oil down 10, bean oil down 14

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board October data report

  • Output at 1.97 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.85 MMT vs. 1.91 MMT in September and vs. 1.94 MMT in Oct 2012
  • Stocks at 1.85 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.82 MMT vs. 1.78 MMT in September and vs. 2.51 MMT in Oct 2012
  • Exports at 1.66 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.60 MMT vs. 1.61 MMT in September and vs. 1.78 MMT in Oct 2012

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-10th palm oil exports at 496,237 tons down 9.9% from Oct 1-10th , market expecting a 12% decline

 

Intertek Agri Services Malaysia’s Nov 1-10th palm oil exports at 472,321 tons down 13% from a month ago , market expecting a 12% decline

 

Mexico was active buyers of US corn for Jan-Feb shipment last week

 

China was eyeing US beans for Jan- March shipment on Friday

 

Lebanon seeks 40K optional origin milling wheat for Dec shipment

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Brazil has planted 59% of their bean crop vs. 54% a year ago and vs. 49% average

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday that Mato Grosso has planted 84% of their bean crop vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 69% average

 

AgRural said Brazil has planted 59% of their bean crop vs. 48% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 59% average

 

Russia’s Stats Office said Russia exported 11.684 MMT of grain between July 1st –Nov 6th up 13% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Nov 11th most winter grain crops are in good to fair condition . 7.7 MH of winter grains are planted vs. 8.2 MH a year ago

 

Strategie Grains EU28 2013 oilseed estimates

  • Rapeseed area at 6.7 MH vs. 6.2 MH a year ago
  • Rapeseed yield at 3.10 TPH vs. 3.13 TPH a year ago
  • Rapeseed output at 20.8 MMT vs. 19.5 MMT a year ago
  • Sunseed area estimated at 4.5 MH vs. 4.2 MH a year ago
  • Sunseed yield at 1.93 TPH vs. 1.66 TPH a year ago
  • Sunseed output at 8.7 MMT vs. 7.0 MMT a year ago
  • Bean area at .5 TPH vs. .4 TPH a year ago
  • Bean yield at 2.66 TPH vs. 2.23 TPH a year ago
  • Bean output at 1.4 MMT vs. 1.0 MMT a year ago

 

Reuters survey . India import estimates

  • Oct palm oil imports at 759,167 tons up 17.8% from a month ago and down 9.7% from a year ago
  • ‘12/13 total cooking oil imports estimated at 10.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT
  • Oct bean oil imports at 103,333 tons down 26.7% from a month ago and up 12.3% from a year ago
  • Oct total veg oil imports at 997,833 tons up 15.5% from a month ago and down 3.7% from a year ago
  • Oct veg oil port stocks estimated at 637,500 tons up 23.8% from a month ago
  • October sunflower imports estimated at 108,333 tons up 123.4% from a month ago and up 26.4% from a year ago
  • October edible oil imports estimated at 970,833 tons up 16.4% from a month ago and down 4.6% from a year ago

 

Analysts estimated India’s November edible oil imports at 900,000 + tons

 

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated October meal exports at 194,000 tons vs. 51,000 tons a year ago

 

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated April – Oct meal exports at 1.07 MMT vs. 888,000 tons a year ago

 

India’s Nov 1st rice stocks at 16.8 MMT vs. 19.0 MMT a month ago

 

India’s Nov 1st wheat stocks at 34.0 MMT vs. 36.1 MMT a year ago

 

Philippines will need to import more rice due to massive typhoon in Central Philippines

 

Midwest dry.

 

Mostly favorable crop weather in Brazil

 

Rains in Argentina over the weekend favor soil moisture, but delays bean and corn planting

 

Favorable wheat weather conditions in Argentina

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Wednesday.

 

65 bean deliveries with the date at 10/30/13 – house Term stopped 59

 

Jan beans 50 day moving average is 1305 ½

 

Technical resistance for Jan beans at $13.00

 

COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Nov 5th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 59,038
  • KC Wheat long 27,128
  • Corn short 233,674
  • Beans long 59,847
  • Meal long 12,328
  • Bean oil short 28,891

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 566,650 open, down 20,451
  • Total corn 1,388,332 open, up 23,070
  • SX 3,200 open, down 809
  • SF 282,692 open, up 3,138
  • Total beans 573,306 open, up 3,424
  • SMZ 96,107 open, down 6,083
  • Total meal 279,486 open, down 149
  • BOZ 110,441 open, down 2,226
  • Total bean oil 334,793 open, up 7,322
  • WZ 179,312 open, down 907
  • Total wheat 390,648 open, up 11,154
  • KC WZ 58,267 open, down 5,696
  • Total KC wheat 153,261 open, down 674

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report will comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report will  comes out tomorrow at 3 pm CST expecting
    • Corn harvest 84-87% complete
    • Bean harvest 91-93% complete
    • Winter wheat condition steady to up 1% from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out on Wednesday at 330 pm CST
  • Solvent Extractors of India comes out later this week with India’s October import data
  • Last trading day for Nov futures is Thursday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,