News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

“Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened.”
― Dr. Seuss

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates. I will email figures from the report as quickly as possible when the report comes out.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 2 ½ at 1264
  • CZ unchanged at 420 ½
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 654 ½
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 714
  • MWZ up 2 ¼ at 711 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.40 at 405.20
  • BOZ down 48 at 4026
  • RRF up 4 at 1554.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 9,921
  • CZ 23,600
  • WZ 4,986
  • KC WZ 723
  • MWZ 616
  • SMZ 4,167
  • BOZ 8,223
  • RRF 54

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude and dollar higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down 1%

Hang Seng down 2.2%

Shanghai Index down 1.1%

 

S&P downgraded France credit ratings

 

Expecting EPA to make an announcement today on the 2014 RFS

 

October US Unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • October nonfarm payrolls +204K expecting +120K
  • October unemployment rate at 7.3% expecting 7.4%
  • September nonfarm payroll revised to +163K from +148K

 

Palm oil down 38

 

China grain market closings- beans up 18, corn up 4, meal up 2, palm oil down 42, bean oil down 36

 

China October trade data – General administrations of customs

  • Oct soybean imports at 4.19 MMT up 4% from a year ago and down 11% from a month ago
  • Jan- Oct soybean imports at 49.94 MMT up 3.3% from a year ago
  • China’s Oct imports +7.6% expecting +7.4% and vs. 7.4% in September
  • China’s Oct exports +5.6% expecting +1.5% and vs. – 3% in September
  • China’s Oct trade surplus $31.1 Billion expecting a surplus of $23.9 billion and vs. a $15.2 billion surplus in September

 

Thailand bought 320,000 tons of meal from US , Brazil , and Paraguay this week .Market was saying they bought 600K tons of meal

 

Algeria bought 650,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Jan- Feb shipment . traders said mostly from France

 

TALK China seeking more US beans yesterday

 

Ethiopia seeks 35K optional origin milling wheat

 

Large US farmer selling of corn and beans noted yesterday.

 

Brazil Ag Min said Brazil and China have signed deals for Brazil to export corn to China . China and Russia has not agreed on an amount yet, but Brazil Ag Min hopes to export 10.0 MMT of corn to China

 

Australian farmers are not selling wheat even though there is good demand from exports

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 11/07 winter grain planting complete on 14.3 MH (87.5% of total area) vs. 15.6 MH a year ago .

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated winter grain area at 13-14.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 16.0 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of 11/08 Ukraine has harvested 56.1 MMT of grain (93% of total crop) with a an average yield of 3.83 TPH a year ago the average yield was 3.06 TPH

 

Yesterday FDA proposed banning trans fats from processed foods, if this becomes law market expecting a reduction of bean oil usage

 

29 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Midwest dry next 7 days , helping farmers finish up harvest.

 

Favorable conditions in Brazil

 

Rains in Argentina next few days

 

Favorable conditions in Argentine wheat areas

 

Frost damage in eastern Australia wheat areas

 

2 bean deliveries with the date at 10/30/13. House Term stopped 1

 

Open interest in Dec corn puts as of yesterday

  • 400 puts 80,866 contracts open
  • 410 puts 31,532 contracts open
  • 420 puts 51,241 contracts open

 

Jan beans 200 day moving average is 1275 ¾

 

New contract lows in Dec corn overnight of 419 ½

 

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll. DB rolls long Dec 2013 corn into Dec 2014 corn

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll . GS will be rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March. They will be rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan .

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimate updates

  • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated 87.9-90.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.6-89.7 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT vs. their previous maximum estimate of 29.36 MH
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.4-79.6 MMT
  • ‘12/13 total corn crop estimated at 81.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 81.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT vs. 21.0 MMT a year ago
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.77 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT up 4.4% from a year ago
  • Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate vs. 1.3M from a year ago

 

Headlines from Reuters – S&P cuts WTI crude, wheat, up nat gas, Brent for 2014

  • 07-Nov-2013 16:21 – S&P GSCI SAYS HAS NO PLANS TO REMOVE OR ADD NEW COMMODITY CONTRACTS TO INDEX IN 2014
  • 07-Nov-2013 16:22 – S&P GSCI SAYS WILL INCREASE INVESTMENT SUPPORT LEVEL TO $240 BLN, VS $230 BLN, EFFECTIVE JAN 2014
  • 07-Nov-2013 16:24 – S&P GSCI WILL CUT WEIGHTING FOR WTI CRUDE OIL, WHEAT, INCREASE SOYBEANS, CORN, BRENT CRUDE, NAT GAS IN 2014
  • 07-Nov-2013 16:26 – S&P GSCI WILL INCREASE WEIGHTINGS FOR ALUMINUM, COPPER, GOLD AND SILVER IN 2014

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 587,106 open, down 26,533
  • Total corn 1,366,388 open, up 15,056
  • SX 4,009 open, down 1,229
  • SF 279,280 open, up 3,935
  • Total beans 569,551 open, up 3,187
  • SMZ 102,351 open, down 2,754
  • Total meal 279,941 open, up 5,708
  • BOZ 112,790 open, down 2,196
  • Total bean oil 327.786 open, down 3,480
  • WZ 108,650 open, down 7,411
  • Total wheat 329,250 open, up 6,199
  • KC WZ 63,963 open, down 3,530
  • Total KC wheat 153,953 open, up 328

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST. CFTC will be up to date with this report.
  • Important political meeting in China this weekend . China’s new leadership is expected to divulge a blueprint for economic policy for the next 10 years.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board October data report will comes out on Monday . Estimates for report based on a Reuters survey

o   Output estimated at 1.85 MMT vs. 1.91 MMT in September and vs. 1.94 MMT in Oct 2012

o   Stocks estimated at 1.82 MMT vs. 1.78 MMT in September and vs. 2.51 MMT in Oct 2012

o   Exports estimated at 1.60 MMT vs. 1.61 MMT in September and vs. 1.78 MMT in Oct 2012

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their Nov 1-10th Malaysian palm oil export estimates. Analysts expect Nov 1-10th palm oil exports to be 12% lower than Oct 1-10th exports.
  • Monday is Veterans Day . Grain markets will be open normal hours. Globex will be open normal hours. Financial and Currency pits will be closed
  • US government is closed on Monday for Veterans Day.
  • Weekly US export inspections report will come out on Tuesday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report will  come out on Tuesday at 3 pm CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out on Wednesday at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for Nov futures is Thursday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Friday Nov 15th at 11 am CDT

 

Estimates for today’s USDA November crop report. Report comes out at 11 am CST , there was no October USDA report due to US government shutdown. The last USDA US crop production report was Sept. 12th.

 

2013 US corn and bean production estimates

  • Corn production (27 analyst surveyed) average estimate 14.003 BB , range of estimates 13.421 BB – 14.367 BB . USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and 2012 final production was 10.78 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 158.933 BPA , range of estimates are 155.6-163.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.0947 MA, range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and 2012 final was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.221 BB, range of estimates are 3.137-3.298 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and 2012 final was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.407 BPA, range of estimates are 41.5-43.3 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 41.2 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.928 MA, range of estimates are 74.7 – 76.98 MA. USDA September estimate was 76.378 MA and 2012 final was 76.1 MA

 

’13/14 US grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .380-.575 BB. USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.029 BB, range of estimates are 1.799-2.292 BB. USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .172 BB, range of estimates are .145-.240 BB. USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 US cotton estimates

  • Cotton production (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.3 MB , range of estimates are 12.9-14.0 MB vs. USDA Sept estimate of 12.9 MB and vs. ‘12/13 final production of 17.3 MB
  • Cotton exports (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.4 MB , range of estimates are 10.0-10.6 MB vs. Sept USDA estimate of 10.4 MB and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 13.0 MB
  • Cotton ending stocks (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.2 MB, range of estimates are 2.8-3.6 MB vs. USDA Sept estimate of 2.9 MB and vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks of 3.9 MB

 

‘13/14 global grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.879 MMT, range of estimates are 171.86-180.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 176.28 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 154.210 MMT, range of estimates are 150.87-159.5 MMT. USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.282 MMT, range of estimates are 71.14-74.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT