News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Success doesn’t come to you… you go to it.

– Marva Collins

 

USDA announced 140K US corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 126K US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 2 ½ at 1259
  • CZ down ¾ at 425 ½
  • WZ up 1 ¾ at 664 ½
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 728 ¾
  • MWZ up ¾ at 720
  • SMZ up 1.30 at 398.20
  • BOZ up 19 at 4144
  • RRF up 2.50 at 1516.5

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 6,562
  • CZ 13,000
  • WZ 5,899
  • KC WZ 619
  • MWZ 89
  • SMZ 3,817
  • BOZ 10,680
  • RRF 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC Wheat steady lower
  • Minn wheat steady better
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 2-3 higher

 

Dollar higher. Stock market, crude and gold lower. Silver mixed

 

Nikkei up .1%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down .4%

 

Malaysian markets are closed today for holiday

 

China grain market closings – beans up 11, corn up 11, meal up 12, palm oil down 40, bean oil down 42.

 

Hearing China’s Sinograin bought 2 Argentine bean cargoes yesterday for May-June shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2-4 US bean cargoes yesterday for Feb shipment

 

Iran is seeking 300-400,000 tons of milling wheat optional origin including US.

 

Iranian president estimated Iran’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 7.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 4.5 MMT

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 30K sunflower oil for Dec shipment

 

Hearing Brazil farmers have sold 40-45% of their new crop beans

 

Jordan seeks 100K milling wheat and 100K barley optional origin.

 

CCC seeks 36K HRW wheat for donation to Ethiopia

 

CCC seeks 15K white wheat for donation to Afghanistan

 

US ethanol plants start to reopen (some were idled for up to 5 years) due to expectations of a record US corn crop

 

Russia stats office said Russia exported 11.177 MMT of grain between July – Nov 1st up 8.5% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 18-20 MMT vs. 15.69 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 10.018 MMT of grain between July – Nov 4th

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Nov grain exports at 3.5 MMT (record) vs. 3.42 MMT in October

 

Rains in forecast today and tomorrow for US Midwest . Dry weather returns Thursday through weekend

 

Good planting conditions in Brazil

 

Favorable crop weather in Argentina

 

Bean deliveries – 238 with the date at 10/17

  • Term house stopped 3
  • Rand house stopped 50

 

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long Dec 2013 corn positions into Dec 2014

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 26 – Nov 1st total crush volume 1,342,500 tons down 8.82% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 26 – Nov 1st total crush capacity utilization at 49.38% down 5.27% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st – Nov 1st ) at 6,099,000 tons vs. 5,133,747 tons a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st – Nov 1st at 53,096,560 tons up 7.35% from a year ago
  • As of Oct 31st total imported soybean stocks at 4.7065 MMT up 120,000 from a week ago and down 12.14% from a year ago
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.562 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2-6.8 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated Feb ben imports at 4.0 MMT

 

Moving averages

  • WZ 50 day 670 .3/4
  • WZ 100 day 671 ¾
  • KC WZ 50 day 728 ½
  • KC WZ 100 day at 722 ¼
  • BOZ 50 day at 4190
  • SMZ 100 day 397.70

 

News from yesterday

  • Safras e Mercado 2014 South American bean crop estimates
    • Brazil at 89.453 MMT vs. 82.125 MMT a year ago
    • Argentina at 57.57 MMT vs. 49.1 MMT a year ago
    • Paraguay at 9.57 MMT vs. 9.367 MMT a year ago
    • Bolivia at 2.934 MMT vs. 2.634 MMT a year ago
    • Uruguay at 3.51 MMT vs. 3.0 MMT a year ago
    • Total South American at 163.037 MMT vs. 146.226 MMT a year ago
    • Said 44% of the Brazilian bean crop is planted as of Nov 1st vs. 26% a week ago vs. 42% a year ago and vs. 36% five year average
    • Said Mato Grosso bean planting is 72% complete vs. 63% a year ago
    • Said summer corn crop is 77% planted vs. 61% a year ago
    • Estimated total Brazil corn crop at 77.238 MMT vs. 82.070 MMT a year ago
  • Brazil’s Trade Minister – Feb – Oct exports
    • Beans 42.04 MMT up 33.8% from a year ago
    • Corn 16.223 MMT up 17.3% from a year ago
    • Soymeal 10.62 MMT down 23.9% from a year ago
  • Weekly US export inspections came out yesterday at 10 am CST at
    • Wheat 7.146 MB expecting 17-21 MB
    • Corn 31.316 MB expecting 25-30 MB
    • Beans 80.559 MB expecting 63-73 MB
  • Yesterday was the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll. In the last minute of trade 5,581 Dec – Dec corn spreads traded electronically at 40 ¼ -40 ¾ and 557 Dec/Dec corn spreads traded in the pit at 40 ½-40 ¾
  • Estimated fund activity from yesterday
    • Wheat sold 2K
    • Corn sold 3K
    • Beans bought 4K
    • Meal bought 1K
    • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Harvested 73% (expecting about 71% complete) vs. 59% a week ago and vs. five year average of 71%

 

Bean

  • Harvested 86% (expecting about 87% complete) vs. 77% a week ago and vs. five year average of 85%

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 63% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 39% good to excellent a year ago
  • Planted 91% (as expected) vs. 86% a week ago and vs. five year average of 90%
  • Emerged 78% vs. 65% a week ago and vs. five year average of 73%

 

Cotton

  • Condition 43% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
  • Bolls opening 95% vs. 92% a year ago and vs. five year average of 97%
  • Harvested 43% vs. 34% a week ago and vs. five year average of 54%

 

 

Estimates for Friday’s USDA November crop report. Report comes out at 11 am CST , there was no October USDA report due to US government shutdown. The last USDA US crop production report was Sept. 12th.

 

2013 US corn and bean production estimates

  • Corn production (27 analyst surveyed) average estimate 14.003 BB , range of estimates 13.421 BB – 14.367 BB . USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and 2012 final production was 10.78 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 158.933 BPA , range of estimates are 155.6-163.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.0947 MA, range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and 2012 final was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.221 BB, range of estimates are 3.137-3.298 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and 2012 final was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.407 BPA, range of estimates are 41.5-43.3 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 41.2 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.928 MA, range of estimates are 74.7 – 76.98 MA. USDA September estimate was 76.378 MA and 2012 final was 76.1 MA

 

’13/14 US grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .380-.575 BB. USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.029 BB, range of estimates are 1.799-2.292 BB. USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .172 BB, range of estimates are .145-.240 BB. USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 global grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.879 MMT, range of estimates are 171.86-180.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 176.28 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 154.210 MMT, range of estimates are 150.87-159.5 MMT. USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.282 MMT, range of estimates are 71.14-74.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,339,662 open, up 13,329
  • SX 8,760 open, down 5,382
  • Total beans 567,124 open, up 4,298
  • Total meal 273,965 open, down 886
  • Total bean oil 329,012 open, down 1,132
  • Total wheat 358,593 open, up 856
  • Total KC wheat 156,300 open, down 1,352

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll is 11/07/13-11/13/13. They will be rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.
  • CONAB comes out on November 8th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 87.6-89.7 MMT
    • Bean exports at 45.9 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 78.4-79.6 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.77 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.6 MMT
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board October data report will come out on Nov 11th . September data was
    • Palm oil output 1.91 MMT
    • Palm oil exports 1.605 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks 1.78 MMT
  • Last trading day for Nov futures is Nov 14th . Futures expire at noon CDT