News From The Grain Floor

Good morning – I apologize for the delay this morning….

 

If love could have saved you, you would have lived forever.
-Unknown Author

 

Deutsche Bank roll begins today and ends on Friday. They will be rolling long Dec 2013 corn positions into Dec 2014.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 5 ½ at 1257
  • CZ down 1 ¾ at 425 ½
  • WZ up 1 at 668 ¾
  • KC WZ up 2 ¼ at 735 ¾
  • MWZ up 1 ¾ at 727 ¼
  • SMZ up .10 at 395
  • BOZ down 13 at 4146
  • RRF up 3.50 at 1510

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,836
  • CZ 14,000
  • WZ 5,780
  • KC WZ 531
  • MWZ 104
  • SMZ 5,850
  • BOZ 7,820
  • RRF 19

 

Dollar, silver and crude oil lower. Gold and stock market higher

 

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down .1%

Japan markets closed for holiday

 

October final PMIs

  • Eurozone 51.3 as expecting vs. 51.1 in September
  • France 49.1 expecting 49.4 and vs. 49.8 in September
  • Germany 51.7 expecting 51.5 and vs. 51.1 in September

 

Palm oil down 49

 

China grain markets – beans down 19, corn up 1, meal down 18, palm down 2, and bean oil up 50.

 

Saudi Arabia bought 720,000 tons of hard wheat from EU , US, South America, and or Australia

 

Tunisia bought 92,000 soft wheat and 50,000 barley optional origin for Nov Dec shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K Black Sea origin corn for April shipment

 

TALK China bought rapeseed oil from Canada about 60,000 tons for Jan- March shipment (last week)

 

USDA attaché in China ‘13/14 China estimates

  • Corn crop at 210.0 MMT (record) vs. USDA estimate of 211.0 MMT
  • Corn imports at 7.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn consumption at 214.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 222 MMT
  • Wheat crop at 118 MMT vs. previous estimate of 121 MMT

 

GAPKI estimated Indonesia’s ‘13/14 palm oil output at 26.7-27.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.0 MMT

 

GAPKI estimated Indonesia’s ‘13/14 palm oil ending stocks at 2.2 MMT vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 2.5 MMT

 

AgRural said as of Nov 1st Brazil has planted 48% of their bean crop vs. 40% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has planted 44% of their bean crop vs. 26% a week ago vs. 42% a year ago and vs. 36% average

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 9.65 MMT of grain between July 1- Nov 1 up 12.4% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Nov 1st Russia has harvested 91.2 MMT of grain on 40.8 MH (92.7% of total area) with an average yield of 2.24 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 72.5 MMT of grain on 38.5 MH with an average yield of 1.88 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of 11/04 Kazakhstan harvested 20.6 MMT of grain on 15.459 MH with an average yield of 1.34 TPH a year ago Kazakhstan harvested 14.55 MMT of grain with an average yield of .95 TPH

 

USDA estimated EU 28 ‘13/14 wheat exports at 23.0 MMT

 

US Midwest dry today, rains in forecast tomorrow and Wednesday , dry weather returns end of week through the weekend.

 

Favorable crop weather in South America

 

Dec corn made new contract lows. Low of day is 425 ¼

 

275 new bean receipts were registered Friday afternoon – 200 out of CIRM Chicago IL and 75 out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN

 

275 bean deliveries with the date at 10/01/13 – customer JP Morgan issued 75 , customer ADM stopped 92

 

FC Stone 2013 US crop estimates from Friday

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.637  BB vs. previous estimate of 14.15 BB
  • Corn yield estimated at 161.2  BPA vs. previous estimate of 158.7 BPA
    • IL corn yield estimated at 182.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 178.0 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 165.0 BPA
    • IA corn yield estimated at 166.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 163.0 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 162.0 BPA
  • Bean crop estimated at 3.27 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.163 BB
  • Bean yield estimated at 42.8 BPA vs. previous estimate of 41.4 BPA
    • IL bean yield estimated at 52.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 48.5 BPA and vs. Sept USDA estimate of 46.0 BPA
    • IA bean yield estimated at 43.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 41.7 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 43.0 BPA

 

Brazilian Trade Minister – Brazil’s October exports

  • Corn 3.95 MMT vs. 3.45 MMT a month ago and vs. 3.66 MMT a year ago
  • Beans 1.50 MMT vs. 3.47 MMT a month ago and vs. 906,900 tons a year ago
  • Meal 1.09 MMT vs. 1.41 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.38 MMT a year ago
  • Bean oil 168,900 tons vs. 177,523 tons a month ago and vs. 110,300 tons a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • Dec wheat 50 day 671
  • Dec wheat 100 day 672 ¼
  • KC Dec 50 day 728
  • Minn Dec 50 day 731
  • BOZ 50 day 4197
  • SMZ 100 day 397.50

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Argentina crop report from Thursday evening

  • Bean planting is 4.6% complete vs. 2.4% a week ago and vs. 3.6% a year ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.2 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting 34.8% complete vs. 26.8% a week ago and vs. 40% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.64 MH
  • Sunflower planting is 60.9% complete vs. 46.6% a week ago and vs. 54.5% a year ago
  • Sunflower planting area estimated at 1.63 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat harvest is 1.5% complete vs. 6% a year ago
  • Average wheat yield is 8.2 TPH

 

COT supplemental report from Friday (This report should have come out on Oct 25th) large spec positions as of Oct 22nd futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 20,058
  • KC wheat long 27,611
  • Corn short 225,457
  • Beans long 78,104
  • Meal long 25,750
  • Bean oil short 35,706

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,325,487 open, down 1,700
  • SX 14,144 open, down 5,260
  • Total beans 563,131 open, down 2,382
  • Total meal 274,987 open, down 1,115
  • Total bean oil 330,276 open, up 4,771
  • Total wheat 357,743 open, down 3,579
  • Total KC wheat 158,319 open, down 615

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT
    • Bean harvest expecting 85-95% complete
    • Corn harvest expecting 72-80% complete
  • Tomorrow China’s Oct CPI comes out
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll is 11/07/13-11/13/13. They will be rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.
  • CONAB comes out on November 8th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 87.6-89.7 MMT
    • Bean exports at 45.9 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 78.4-79.6 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.77 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.6 MMT
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board October data report will come out on Nov 11th . September data was
    • Palm oil output 1.91 MMT
    • Palm oil exports 1.605 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks 1.78 MMT
  • Last trading day for Nov futures is Nov 14th . Futures expire at noon CDT

 

Thank you,