News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Everything has its beauty, but not everyone
sees it.

– Confucius

 

USDA announced 115K tons of beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 33K tons of bean oil to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Informa comes out today at 10 am CDT with their 2013 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • Corn crop at 14.01 BB
  • Corn yield at 158.8 BPA
  • Bean crop at 3.176 BB
  • Bean yield at 41.7 BPA

 

FC Stone comes out today about 3 pm CDT with their 2013 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • Corn crop at 14.15 BB
  • Corn yield at 158.7 BPA
  • Bean crop at 3.163 BB
  • Bean yield at 41.4 BPA

 

USDA comes out on November 8th at 11 am CDT with their 2013 US crop estimates . USDA’s Sept estimates were (the October report was canceled due to US government shutdown)

  • Corn crop 13.843 BB
  • Corn yield 155.3 BPA
  • Bean crop 3.149 BB
  • Bean yield 41.2 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 4 ½ at 1261 ¾
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 426 ¾ – Dec corn made new contract lows overnight of 426 ½
  • WZ down 2 ¾ at 664 ¾
  • KC WZ down 7 ¾ at 732 ¾
  • MWZ down 2 ½ at 727 ¾
  • SMZ down 2.60 at 401.00
  • BOZ up 31 at 4164
  • RRF up 1 at 1511.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 13,786
  • CZ 13,336
  • WZ 6,854
  • KC WZ 2,242
  • MWZ 340
  • SMZ 4,909
  • BOZ 10,327
  • RRF 17

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minn wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil  25-35 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .9%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index up .4%

 

China’s final HSBC October PMI came out at 50.9 (7 month high) vs. flash of 50.9 and vs. Sept final PMI of 50.2

 

China’s final official October PMI came out at 51.4 expecting 51.2 and vs. 51.1 in September

 

Palm oil up 30 (one year highs)

 

Chinese grain market closings – beans up 22, corn up 1, meal down 9, palm oil up 20, and bean oil up 38

 

South Korea MFG bought 55K optional origin feed wheat for Jan shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K US corn for March shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K European corn for April shipment

 

South Korea has bought 773,000 tons of wheat, corn and oilseeds over the past 4 days.

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 10.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 12.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 4.2 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 6.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 corn exports at 16.0 MMT vs. UDA estimate of 18.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at a record high 57.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean area at 20.5-20.6 MH vs. 20.0 MH a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated ‘13/14 Argentina corn area at 3.5 MH and bean area at 20.2 MH

 

Linn Group estimated 2013 US corn crop at 14.3 BB

 

Linn Group estimated 2013 US corn yield at 163.3 BPA

 

Linn Group estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.265 BB

 

Linn Group estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.1 BPA

 

Analysts expecting 2013 US corn yield of 160-163 BPA

 

Analysts expecting 2013 US bean yield of 42.5-43.0 BPA

 

Ukraine is loading its first ever corn cargo to China – 70,000 tons for Nov shipment

 

Yesterday IGC estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 696.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 693.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 Canada wheat crop at 33.0 (record) vs. 30.5 MMT previously

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 948 MMT vs. previous estimate of 943.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks at 152.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 148.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks at 182.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 180.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘13/14 US corn crop at 352 MMT vs. previous estimate of 350 MMT

 

Yesterday – SOPA estimated India’s ‘13/14 soymeal exports at 4.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 exports of 3.5 MMT

 

SOPA said India has sold 900,000 tons of meal so far this season for December shipment .

 

Analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 10.23 MMT down 4.4% from ‘12/13 due to heavy rains.

 

Yesterday – Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ’13/14 grain exports at 9-10.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0-9.5 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain crop at 19.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.3 MMT

 

Some rains in Midwest today . Expecting dry weather this weekend. More rains in forecast for early to mid next week

 

Improving weather in South America

 

Good rains in Cordoba, Argentina.

 

Weather concerns in Malaysia and Indonesia – too wet.

 

10 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

There were 36 rice deliveries with the date at September 13th

 

No bean deliveries

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll. They are rolling long Dec wheat and corn positions into March and long meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

Moving averages

  • SF 200 day 1277
  • WZ 50 day 670 ½
  • WZ 100 day 672 ½
  • BOZ 50 day 4201
  • SMZ 100 day 397.50

 

Open interest as of  yesterday’s close

  • CZ 677,785 open, down 16,015
  • Total corn 1,325,416 open, up 4,723
  • SX 19,404 open, down 7,502
  • SF 277,116 open, down 2,564
  • Total beans 565,208 open, down 6,485
  • SMZ 116,532 open, down 10,032
  • Total meal 276,462 open, down 6,466
  • BOZ 126,040 open, down 4,334
  • Total bean oil 326,630 open, down 3,218
  • WZ 196,726 open, down 12,653
  • Total wheat 360,580 open, down 6,681
  • KC WZ 78,137 open, down 1,577
  • Total KC wheat 158,675 open, down 207

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • On Monday Eurozone, Germany, and France October final PMI comes out.
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Monday Nov 4th. DB roll is 5 days long. DB will be rolling long Dec 2013 corn positions into Dec 2014.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
    • Bean harvest expecting 85-95% complete
    • Corn harvest expecting 72-80% complete
  • On Tuesday China’s Oct CPI comes out
  • Goldman Sachs roll is 11/07/13-11/13/13. They will be rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.
  • CONAB comes out on November 8th with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimates . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 87.6-89.7 MMT
    • Bean exports at 45.9 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 78.4-79.6 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.77 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.6 MMT
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board October data report will come out on Nov 11th . September data was
    • Palm oil output 1.91 MMT
    • Palm oil exports 1.605 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks 1.78 MMT