News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

The purpose of life is a life of purpose.

– Robert Byrne

 

Today is month end

 

USDA announced 123,040 US corn sold to Japan for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 174,000 US corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Today is first notice day for Nov futures. There were 0 bean deliveries as expected and there were 36 rice deliveries with the date at 8/19/13 (expecting 0).

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 2 ½ at 1279
  • CZ up 4 ½ at 434 ¾
  • WZ down 2 ¼ at 672 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¾ at 746
  • MWZ unchanged at 732
  • SMZ down .60 at 411.20
  • BOZ up 20 at 4182
  • RRF down 7 at 1523.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 21,550
  • CZ 28,920
  • WZ 10,581
  • KC WZ 837
  • MWZ 211
  • SMZ 8,072
  • BOZ 11,729
  • RRF 72

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minn wheat steady mixed
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Crude, gold, stock market, and silver lower. Dollar higher

 

Nikkei down 1.2%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down .9%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out today at -10K to 340K expecting 335K

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s October palm oil exports at 1.55 MMT up 2.9% from September

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s October palm oil exports at 1.52 MMT down .5% from September

 

Rains in Midwest today and tomorrow

 

Talk continues of better than expected corn and bean yields. Market expecting 160-162 BPA for corn and 42.0-43.0 BPA for beans.

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Rogers roll ends tomorrow. They are rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

Moving averages

  • SF 100 day 1287 ¾
  • SF 200 day 1277 ¼
  • WZ 50 day 670
  • WZ 100 day 673
  • MWZ 50 day 731
  • BOZ 50 day 4204

 

US export sales report for the weeks ending Oct 10th, 17th , and 24th came out this morning at 730 am CDT

  • Wheat at 1.31 MMT, expecting 1.5-2.0 MMT
  • Corn at 4.56 MMT for ‘13/14 and 738,000 tons of ‘14/15 , expecting 1.9-2.5 MMT
  • Beans at 4.74 MMT , expecting 2.5-3.0 MMT
  • Meal at 805,200 tons, expecting 800,000 – 1.1 MMT
  • Bean oil at 14,500 tons , expecting 40,000-160,000
  • Cotton at 612,300 tons

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 1,308,800 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were reported for Brazil (393,300 MT, including 75,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 19,200 MT), unknown destinations (181,900 MT), the Philippines (132,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), Nigeria (121,900 MT), Japan (97,500 MT), South Korea (80,100 MT), and Mexico (66,200 MT).  Decreases were reported for Guatemala (11,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,400 MT), and Yemen (3,100 MT).  Exports of 1,621,800 MT were reported for China (409,700 MT), Brazil (381,900 MT), Japan (169,700 MT), the Philippines (106,700 MT), Nigeria (80,700 MT), and Mexico (64,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 4,555,500 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (1,689,400 MT, including 33,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,300 MT), Japan (862,700 MT, including 122,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 19,900 MT), China (777,600 MT, including 373,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 24,500 MT), unknown destinations (434,900 MT), and Colombia (242,400 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,800 MT).  Decreases were reported for Panama (9,600 MT) and El Salvador (2,000 MT).  Net sales of 738,000 MT for the 2014/2015 marketing year were reported for Mexico (734,400 MT) and Nicaragua (3,600 MT).  Exports of 2,094,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (708,300 MT), China (677,900 MT), Japan (255,600 MT), Colombia (123,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (68,200 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 4,742,000 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (2,112,300 MT, including 644,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 226,300 MT), unknown destinations (550,800 MT), Mexico (284,100 MT), Russia (270,600 MT), Indonesia (238,900 MT, including 91,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (202,000 MT).  Exports of 5,123,200 MT were primarily to China (3,821,300 MT), Mexico (281,400 MT), Japan (146,900 MT), Spain (137,800 MT), and Indonesia (135,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 805,200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Canada (127,500 MT), Spain (84,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (80,100 MT), and Vietnam (61,900 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for Norway (8,000 MT), Mozambique (4,900 MT), Panama (4,400 MT), and Nicaragua (2,300 MT).  Net sales reductions of 500 MT were reported for Canada.  Exports of 530,800 MT were primarily to Mexico (66,500 MT), Venezuela (64,000 MT), Spain (64,000 MT), and Canada (61,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – :  Net sales of 14,500 MT for the 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (6,100 MT), unknown destinations (4,400 MT), Canada (4,200 MT), and Jamaica (3,500 MT).   Decreases were reported for Norway (8,000 MT).  Exports of 22,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (15,100 MT) and Canada (7,500 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 612,300 RB for 2013/2014 were reported for China (238,600 RB, including 900 RB switched from South Korea and decreases of 1,000 RB), Turkey (151,000 RB), Indonesia (51,600 RB, including 2,300 RB switched from China), Mexico (30,700 RB), and Vietnam (30,500 RB).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (100 RB).  Net sales of 13,300 RB for 2014/2015 were reported for Thailand (9,300 RB) and Turkey (4,000 RB).  Exports of 231,400 RB were to China (47,500 RB), Mexico (41,600 RB), Turkey (35,200 RB), Indonesia (18,300 RB), and Vietnam (18,200 RB).  Net American Pima sales of 78,600 RB for 2013/2014 were for China (67,400 RB, including 900 RB switched from Vietnam), India (6,100 RB), Indonesia (1,700 RB), and Japan (1,400 RB).  Decreases were reported for Vietnam (900 RB).  Exports of 18,900 RB were primarily to China (13,100 RB), Thailand (1,700 RB), and Japan (1,100 RB).

 

COT supplemental report that should have been issued Oct 18th came out yesterday afternoon. Large spec positions as of Oct 15th futures and options combined.

  • Wheat short 23,431
  • KC Wheat long 24,425
  • Corn short 222,195
  • Beans long 70,797
  • Meal long 19,791
  • Bean oil short 50,413

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 693,677 open, down 9,113
  • Total corn 1,320,465 open, down 572
  • SX 26,911 open, down 20,931
  • SF 279,685 open, up 5,420
  • Total beans 571,624 open, down 12,805
  • SMZ 126,631 open, down 1,067
  • Total meal 283,039 open, down 794
  • BOZ 130,430 open, up 1,272
  • Total bean oil 328,942 open, up 2,917
  • WZ 209,297 open, down 2,176
  • Total wheat 367,226 open, up 3,062
  • KC WZ 79,812 open, down 2,402
  • Total KC wheat 158,994 open, down 91

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting a build of 36 B
  • China’s HSBC final October PMI comes out tonight/tomorrow
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates
  • FC Stone comes out tomorrow after the close with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Monday Nov 4th. DB roll is 5 days long. DB will be rolling long Dec 2013 corn positions into Dec 2014.
  • Goldman Sachs roll is 11/07/13-11/13/13. They will be rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.
  • CONAB comes out on November 8th with their Brazil ‘13/14 crop estimates
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.