News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don’t have any.”

~Alice Walker

 

Rogers roll begins today. Rolling long Dec corn and wheat positions into March and possibly rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan

 

Today is position day for November soybeans and rice. Traders should be out of long positions by the close today or risk delivery . Market is not expecting any bean deliveries tonight. As of yesterday afternoon there are 0 bean receipts registered and there are 257 rice receipts registered.

 

Overnight closes

  • SF up 6 ¼ at 1285 ¼
  • CZ up 1 at 433
  • WZ down 1 ¾
  • KC WZ unchanged
  • MWZ up a ½ at 737
  • SMZ up 1.80 at 412.60
  • BOZ up 48 at 4145
  • RRF down 4 at 1543 ½

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,000
  • CZ 17,000
  • WZ 5,312
  • KC WZ 546
  • MWZ 235
  • SMZ 3,857
  • BOZ 12,000
  • RRF 84

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-2 lower
  • KC wheat steady  mixed
  • Minn wheat steady better
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar and crude oil lower

 

Nikkei up 1.2%

Hang Seng up 2%

Shanghai Index up 1.5%

 

Today is the second day of the FOMC 2 day policy meeting. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CDT.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 5.9 MB expecting a build of 2.2 MB
  • Gas a build of 740,000 expecting a draw of 100,000
  • Distillates a draw of 2.7 MB expecting a draw of 300,000

 

Palm oil up 45

 

China grain markets – beans up 5,. Corn up 4, meal up 5, palm oil up 168, bean oil up 126

 

South Korea bought 368,000 tons of US corn for March April shipment

 

South Korea has bought 500,000 tons of US corn over the past 2 days

 

South Korea Nofi bought 15,000 Indian soymeal and 10,000 Indian rapeseed meal for Feb

 

Ecuador bought 30,000 tons of US meal for Jan shipment

 

TALK China bought 2 US soybean cargoes for Jan shipment yesterday

 

Taiwan bought 60,000 US corn for Jan-Feb shipment

 

TALK China is seeking US corn for March shipment

 

TALK China is seeking Australian wheat .

 

Japan bought 58,020 feed wheat and 36,140 feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Feb shipment

 

Market expectations of US corn yields at 162+ BPA

 

Market expectations of US bean yields at 42.5-43.0 BPA

 

Rains in Argentina – rains were needed

 

Rains in Brazil

 

Rains in the US today and tomorrow dry weather returns Friday.

 

Weather concerns in Malaysia – too wet.

 

Moving averages

  • SF 200 day 1277 ¼
  • BOZ 50 day 4206
  • KC WZ 200 day 760 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,321,003 open, up 12,469
  • SX 49,134 open, down 22,660
  • Total beans 585,8253 open, down 10,730
  • Total meal 284,161 open, down 1,514
  • Total bean oil 326,353 open, down 422
  • Total wheat 363,945 open, down 112
  • Total KC wheat 159,137 open, down 31

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.2 MB
    • Gas a draw of 100,000
    • Distillates a draw of 400,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • USDA will release export sales report for the weeks ending Oct 10, 17, and 24th combined tomorrow at 730 am CDT Market expecting
    • Wheat 1.5 M
    • Corn 2.1 M
    • Beans 3 M
    • Meal 1 M
    • Bean oil 75,000
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Tomorrow surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Oct palm oil exports
  • Informa comes out this week with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates – hearing Friday
  • FC Stone comes out on Friday after the close with their 2013 US crop production estimates
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.