news From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

A smile is an inexpensive way to change your  looks.

– Charles Gord

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 2 at 1266
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 429 ¼
  • WZ down 1 ¼ at 679 ¼
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 750 ¼
  • MWZ up 1 ½ at 738
  • SMZ down 3.50 at 411.20
  • BOZ up 23 at 4059
  • RRF down .50 at 1525.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 16,777
  • CZ 14,381
  • WZ 6,508
  • KC WZ 640
  • MWZ 249
  • SMZ 5,305
  • BOZ 8,841
  • RRF 12

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minn wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal 3-4 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold, silver, and crude oil lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .8%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down 1.1%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today.

 

Palm oil up 34.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 30, corn down 12, meal down 4, palm oil unchanged, bean oil down 54.

 

South Korea Nofi bought 140K US corn for March shipment. First time Nofi bought US corn in 16 months

 

South Korea Nofi bought 65K optional origin feed wheat for Feb shipment

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 55K optional origin meal for Feb shipment

 

Bangladesh reissues tender to buy 50K optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013 corn imports at 5.0+ MMT vs. 3.0 MMT in 2012.

 

CNGOIC said 100,000 tons of US corn to arrive in China in October

 

CNGOIC said 800,000 tons of US corn to arrive in China in November

 

Abiove estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 88.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 81.6 MMT

 

Heavy rains in Malaysia

 

Midwest dry today , widespread showers in forecast Wednesday and Thursday, dry weather returns Friday into early next week.

 

Dec corn made new contract lows overnight. The low overnight was 429.

 

Jan bean 200 day moving average is 1277 ½

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 19-25th total crush volume at 1,472,400 tons up 5.48% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 19-25th total crush capacity utilization at 54.65% up 2.85% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1 2013  – Oct 25 2013 at 4,756,500 tons up 23.26% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1 – Oct 25th at 51,754,060 tons up 7.41% from a year ago
  • As of Oct 25th total imported soybean stocks at 4.5865 MMT down 296,400 tons from a week ago and down 19.11% from a year ago
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.562 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.2-6.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.5 -6.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 88.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • Said 40-45% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 70.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • Said 3-4% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • Said 28-30% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted
  • ‘13/14 US corn crop estimated at 13.67 BB
  • ‘13/14 US corn yield estimated at 156.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 154.0 BPA
  • ’13/14 US bean crop estimated 3.17 BB
  • ‘13/14 US bean yield estimated at 41.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 41.0 BPA

 

Weekly COT supplemental report came out yesterday afternoon (release date should have been Oct 11th) . Large spec positions as of 10/08/13 futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 25,989
  • KC wheat long 17,547
  • Corn short 219,427
  • Beans long 68,654
  • Meal long 24,574
  • Bean oil short 51,283

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Harvest 59%  (expecting 47-56% complete) vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 62% 5 year average
  • Matured 98% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Condition 62% good to excellent vs. 60% a week ago

 

Beans

  • Harvest 77% (expecting 73-86% complete) vs. 63% a week ago and vs. 77% 5 year average
  • Dropping leaves 98% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 61% good to excellent vs. 65% a week ago and vs. 40% a year ago
  • Planted 86% vs. 79% a week ago and vs. 85% 5 year average
  • Emerged  65% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 64% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Harvested 94% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 91% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Harvested 34% vs. 21% a week ago and vs. 44% 5 year average
  • Condition 44% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 92% vs. 81% a week ago and vs. 94% 5 year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 707,995 open, up 745
  • Total corn 1,308,148 open, up 14,008
  • SX 71,381 open, down 38,151
  • SF 265,912 open, up 7,024
  • Total beans 596,546 open, down 31,183
  • SMZ 130,206 open, down 3,313
  • Total meal 286,230 open, down 2,580
  • BOZ 130,844 open, down 795
  • Total bean oil 326,844 open, up 2,232
  • WZ 216,538 open, down 4,107
  • Total wheat 364,315 open, down 3,930
  • KC WZ 84,598 open, down 2,292
  • Total KC wheat 159,266 open, up 95

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Position day for Nov futures is tomorrow.
    • First notice day is Thursday. No bean deliveries are expected
  • Thursday is month end
  • Thursday surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Oct palm oil exports
  • Informa comes out this week with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates
  • FC Stone comes out on Friday after the close with their 2013 US crop production estimates
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.

 

Thank you,