News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

A true friend is someone who knows there’s something wrong even when you have the biggest smile on your face.

– Unknown

 

USDA announced 115K tons of beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 115K tons of beans sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 103,600 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SF down 6 ¾ at 1286 ¾
  • CZ down 2 at 438
  • WZ down 3 at 687 ¾
  • KC WZ down 2 ½ at 756 ½
  • MWZ down 1 at 744
  • SMZ down 3.00 at 420.50
  • BOZ up 18 at 4091
  • RRF down 8 at 1533 – Jan is top step today in rice.

 

Overnight volume

  • SF 17,983
  • CZ 17,434
  • WZ 7,185
  • KC WZ 1,401
  • MWZ 164
  • SMZ 5,152
  • BOZ 8,669
  • RRF 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Min wheat steady to 2 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 7-9 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower. Dollar higher

 

Nikkei up 2.2%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up .1%

 

Palm oil up 19

 

China grain market closes – beans down 22, corn down 14, meal down 55, palm oil down 8, bean oil down 44

 

Hearing China bought 2-3 cargoes of US beans off the Gulf on Friday for Jan – March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 70K optional origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 60K optional origin wheat for Feb shipment

 

Syria seeks 135K tons of optional origin rice for immediate shipment

 

Elections in Argentina yesterday ensures President Fernandez’s term will be over in Oct 2015.

 

Argentina’s Ag Min said on Friday that 25% of the corn crop has been planted vs. 19% a week ago and vs. 39% a year ago

 

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn planting area at 5.7 MH

 

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat planting area at 3.4 MH

 

Egypt’s supply minister said Egypt should hold a wheat tender within the next 2-4 weeks for March shipment.

 

Egypt’s supply minister said Egypt has enough wheat supply through Feb 18th.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Oct 28th Kazakhstan has harvested 20.436 MMT of grain on 15.334 MH (97.4% of total area) with an average yield of 1.33 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 14.55 MMT with an average yield of .95 TPH

 

TALK continues of better than expected US corn yields

 

21 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of The Andersons Maumee OH

 

Rains in forecast for the Midwest tomorrow through Friday.

 

Moving averages

  • SF 100 day 1289 ½
  • KC WZ 200 day 761 ½
  • MWZ 100 day is 750 ¾

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday . Large spec positions as of Oct 1st (this report should have come out on Oct 4th) futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 40,745
  • KC Wheat long 10,941
  • Corn short 214,062
  • Beans long 67,645
  • Meal long 24,528
  • Bean oil short 50,254

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 709,449 open, down 4,027
  • Total corn 1,296,257 open, up 1,572
  • SX 115,324 open, down 36,314
  • SF 259,058 open, up 12,626
  • Total beans 632,759 open, down 21,500
  • SMZ 133,502 open, up 270
  • Total meal 288,774 open, up 2,655
  • BOZ 132,014 open, up 726
  • Total bean oil 324,987 open, up 4,919
  • WZ 219,580 open, down 8,297
  • Total wheat 367,171 open, down 9,405
  • KC WZ 86,931 open, down 1,292
  • Total KC wheat 159,151 open, down 55

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report come out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • Corn harvest 47-56% complete
    • Bean harvest 73-86% complete
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm
  • Position day for Nov futures is Wednesday. First notice day is Thursday. No bean deliveries are expected
  • FC Stone comes out on Friday after the close with their 2013 US crop production estimates
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.