News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

In order to succeed, your desire for success should be greater than your fear of failure.

– Bill Cosby

 

January beans are top step (spot month) this morning

 

November options expire today at 115 pm CDT. See below for open interest in November options.

 

USDA announced 120K tons of US beans sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 120K tons of US beans sold to Taiwan for ‘13/14 delivery (this was reported on Reuters and DJ on Tuesday)

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 ½ at 1307 ¼
  • CZ down a ¼ at 440
  • WZ up 3 ½ at 700
  • KC WZ up 2 ½ at 766 3/4
  • MWZ up 1 ¾ at 753 ¾
  • SMZ up .60 at 426.60
  • BOZ up 2 at 4115
  • RRX down 6.50 at 1547

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,912
  • CZ 9,227
  • WZ 5,174
  • KC WZ 580
  • MWZ 71
  • SMZ 5,385
  • BOZ 8,563
  • RRX 65

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Min wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil  steady better
  • Rice 5-7 lower

 

Gold and silver lower. Dollar and crude higher. Stock market mixed.

 

Nikkei down 2.6%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down 1.5%

 

Palm oil down 20.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 14, corn up 1, meal down 4, palm oil down 56, and bean oil down 24

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.26 MMT up 3.8% from a month ago

 

South Korea feed mills bought 54,900 tons of US wheat for Feb – March shipment

 

South Korea feed mills bought 25,500 Canadian wheat for Feb – March shipment

 

Japan bought 38,900 food wheat and 35,929 food barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

India MMTC tenders to sell 60K wheat for Nov- Dec shipment

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.231 MMT down .56% from a year ago

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 30K sunflower oil for Dec shipment

 

Good harvest weather in Midwest next 3-4 days . Rains in forecast for early next week.

 

Frost damage in parts of Australia’s eastern grain belt this week

 

KC WZ 200 day moving average 762

 

Minn WZ 100 day moving average 751 ½

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Said ‘13/14 bean planting is 2.4% complete
  • Estimated bean planting area at 20.2 MH vs. 19.7 MH in ‘12/13
  • Corn planting is 26.8% complete vs. 18.5% a week ago
  • ‘13/14 corn planting area estimated at 3.46 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 10.35 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.8 MMT
  • Wheat harvest is down 3.5% from a year ago
  • Sunflower planting is 46.6% complete vs. 33.2% a week ago and vs. 47.9% a year ago
  • Estimated sunflower area at 1.63 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Open interest in Nov options as of yesterday’s close

 

Corn

  • 420 calls 450 open – puts 9,099 open
  • 430 calls 781 open – puts 2,641 open
  • 440 calls 2,844 open – puts 6,127 open
  • 445 calls 3,562 open – puts 5,039 open
  • 450 calls 5,879 open – puts 4,452 open
  • 455 calls 3,059 open – puts 3,088 open
  • 460 calls 6,938 open – puts 3,034 open

 

Beans

  • 1280 calls 5,971 open – puts 9,549 open
  • 1290 calls 2,985 open – puts 3,536 open
  • 1300 calls 8,477 open – puts 10,038 open
  • 1310 calls 1,633 open – puts 1,829 open
  • 1320 calls 9,062 open – puts 5,690 open
  • 1330 calls 2,017 open – puts 1,983 open

 

Wheat

  • 680 calls 1,245 open – puts 1,368 open
  • 690 calls 1,336 open – puts 1,061 open
  • 700 calls 1,693 open – puts 631 open
  • 710 calls 948 open – puts 161 open
  • 720 calls 2,303 open – puts 10 open

 

Meal

  • 410 calls 86 open – puts 384 open
  • 415 calls 59 open – puts 363 open
  • 420 calls 792 open – puts 574 open
  • 430 calls 206 open – puts 42 open

 

Bean oil

  • 39.5 calls 570 open – puts 559 open
  • 40 calls 210 open – puts 332 open
  • 40.5 calls 116 open – puts 446 open
  • 41 calls 652 open – puts 296 open
  • 41.5 calls 110 open – puts 355 open
  • 42 calls 127 open – puts 169 open

 

Open interest in futures as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 713,550 open , down 4,168
  • Total corn 1,294,651 open, up 2,572
  • SX 152,360 open, down 16,846
  • SF 246,577 open, up 11,834
  • Total beans 655,156 open, down 58
  • SMZ 133,588 open, up 1,861
  • Total meal 286,455 open, up 5,039
  • BOZ 131,361 open, down 218
  • Total bean oil 320,141 open, up 1,566
  • WZ 227,611 open, down 3,997
  • Total wheat 376,317 open, down 128
  • KC WZ  88,364 open, down 1,030
  • Total KC wheat 159,453 open, up 1,178

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Sometime today USDA will release incomplete data for the export sales report for the week ending Oct 10th and Oct 17th . These figures will NOT be final.
  • On October 31st USDA will release export sales report for the weeks ending Oct 10th, 17th, and 24th . These figures will look larger than normal since the 3 weeks will be combined.
  • Weekly COT report that was supposed to come out on Oct 4th will come out today at 230. This will be fund positions as of Oct 1st. Over the next 2 weeks CFTC will release 4 of the COT reports that were missed due to US government shutdown . CFTC expects to be up to date by Nov 8th.
  • Legislative elections in Argentina on Sunday. It is expected that president  Cristina Fernandez  will lose control of the cabinet. If this does happen market is expecting a devaluation of currency and may cause Argentine farmers , who have been hording their grains, to start selling .
  • Weekly US export inspections report come out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Oct 29-30
  • October US unemployment report will come out on Nov 8th at 730 am CDT (postponed 1 week due to US government shutdown)
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.