News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.

– Albert Einstein

 

USDDA announced 210K corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down a ¼ at 1309 ¾
  • CZ down 2 at 440 ¾
  • WZ down 3 at 698 ¾
  • KC WZ down 3 ½ at 767 ¼
  • MWZ down 2 ¼ at 756 ½
  • SMZ up 1.30 at 422.70
  • BOZ down 14 at 4136
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1544.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,690
  • CZ 17,619
  • WZ 6,872
  • KC WZ 866
  • MWZ 239
  • SMZ 6,183
  • BOZ 7,900
  • RRX 71

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn  1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Min wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Dollar and crude lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .4%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai Index down .9%

 

Flash October PMIs came out this morning

  • China at 50.9 vs. Sept final of 50.2
  • Eurozone at 51.3 expecting 51.4 and vs. Sept final of 51.1
  • Germany 51.5 as expected vs. Sept final of 51.1
  • France 49.4 ( 4 month low) expecting 50.1 and vs. Sept final of 49.8

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 12K at 350K expecting 340K

 

Palm oil down 21.

 

China grain closes – beans down 25, meal up 6, corn down 4, palm down 4, bean oil down 2

 

The weekly Chinese bean auctions are finished for the year

 

Not a lot of fresh news this morning.

 

Hearing China bought a cargo of US beans for Jan-Feb shipment yesterday

 

Philippines bought 45K tons of Ukraine wheat for Nov shipment

 

Iraq bought 100,000 tons of Australian wheat for Nov- Jan shipment

 

Iraq bought 50,000 tons of Canadian wheat for Nov-Jan shipment

 

India’s PEC and STC tenders to sell 280,000 tons of wheat for Dec shipment

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 10/23/13 Russia had planted winter grains on 13.4 MH (81.9% of total area) vs. 15.5 MH a year ago

 

Concerns continue, wheat crop damage in China, Argentina, and Australia

 

Midwest cold and dry the next 4 days some rains in forecast in the 5-7 day .

 

Weekly US export sales report for the week ending Oct 3rd came out this morning

  • Wheat 653,600  (expecting 300-900K)
  • Corn 1.34 M   (expecting 600-1.4M)
  • Beans  ‘13/14 929,800 ‘14/15 18,000 (expecting 400-1.025M)
  • Meal ‘12/13 – 32,700 ‘13/14 850,100 (expecting 150-250K)
  • Bean oil  ‘12/13 – 18,400 , ‘13/14 27,500  (expecting 0-30K)

 

Export highlights for the week ending Oct 3rd

  • Wheat – Net sales of 653,600 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 22 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (192,500 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), South Korea (173,600 MT, including 90,000 MT switched from Singapore), Nigeria (101,500 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (62,000 MT, including 51,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (56,400 MT), and China (48,200 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (152,300 MT) and Singapore (90,000 MT). Exports of 835,400 MT were unchanged from the previous week and down16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (170,200 MT), Brazil (132,500 MT), Mexico (126,400 MT), Indonesia (85,200 MT), the Philippines (81,200 MT), and Taiwan (56,400 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,341,400 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for unknown destinations (428,100 MT), China (230,600 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (179,300 MT, including 48,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (145,400 MT, including 61,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (129,400 MT). Decreases were reported for Vietnam (2,700 MT). Exports of 618,000 MT were primarily to China (184,600 MT), Mexico (162,900 MT), Colombia (90,600 MT), Japan (82,500 MT), and Taiwan (36,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 929,800 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (242,300 MT, including 118,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 193,800 MT), unknown destinations (122,400 MT), Japan (96,100 MT, including 37,800 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 1,700 MT), Germany (74,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Saudi Arabia (66,000 MT). Net sales of 18,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Morocco (15,000 MT) and Japan (3,000 MT). Exports of 851,700 MT were primarily to China (425,900 MT), Mexico (125,600 MT), Germany (74,300 MT), and Spain (58,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 850,100 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) were primarily for unknown destinations (383,000 MT), Spain (72,500 MT), the Philippines (71,500 MT), and Egypt (59,500 MT). Decreases were reported for the Dominican Republic (8,500 MT), Nicaragua (5,600 MT), and Guatemala (3,800 MT). Exports for October 1-3 of 15,100 MT were primarily to Canada (8,400 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), Jamaica (2,000 MT), and Belgium (1,200 MT). Net sales reductions of 32,700 MT for (Sept. 27-30) resulted as increases for Canada (6,600 MT), Nicaragua (6,200 MT), and Guatemala (5,800 MT, including 8,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Mexico (19,900 MT), the Philippines (17,300 MT), and unknown destinations (15,000 MT). A total of 339,100 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2012/2013 marketing year) and carried over to the 2013/2014 marketing year. Exports of 49,100 MT were reported for September 27-30. The primary destinations were Canada (14,300 MT), Honduras (8,900 MT), Mexico (6,400 MT), and Nicaragua (6,200 MT). Accumulated exports for the 2012/2013 marketing year were 9,712,300 MT, up 14 percent from the 8,501,100 MT reported in 2011/2012.
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 27,500 MT for the 2013/2014 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) were primarily for Canada (13,000 MT), Venezuela (8,000 MT)and Colombia (4,400 MT). Exports for October 1-3 of 800 MT were to Canada (400 MT) and Mexico (400 MT). Net sales reductions of 18,400 MT for (Sept. 27-30) resulted as increases for Mexico (5,000 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Canada (15,500 MT) and Venezuela (8,000 MT). A total of 10,600 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2012/2013 marketing year) and carried over to the 2013/2014 marketing year. Exports of 6,200 MT were reported for September 27-30. Increases were reported for Mexico (5,400 MT) and Canada (800 MT). Accumulated exports for the 2012/2013 marketing year were 935,600 MT, up 60 percent from the 585,900 MT reported in 2011/2012.

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day at 1319
  • SX 100 day at 1287 ½
  • WZ 200 day at 711 ½
  • KWZ 200 day at 762 ½
  • MWZ 100 day 752 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 717,739 open, down 7,022
  • Total corn 1,292,002 open, up 7,784
  • SX 169,882 open, down 17,480
  • SF 234,914 open, up 17,508 – Jan beans will be top step tonight/tomorrow.
  • Total beans 656,059 open, up 3,959
  • SMZ 131,911 open, up 3,117
  • Total meal 281,587 open, up 4,261
  • BOZ 131,725 open, down 4,457
  • Total bean oil 318,721 open, down 3,643
  • WZ 231,764 open, down 725
  • Total wheat 376,607 open, up 1,659
  • KC WZ 89,501 open, down 998
  • Total KC wheat 158,501 open, up 366

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT.
  • Later today or early tomorrow morning USDA will release incomplete data for the export sales report for the week ending Oct 10th and Oct 17th . These figures will NOT be final.
  • On October 31st USDA will release export sales report for the weeks ending Oct 10th, 17th, and 24th . These figures will look larger than normal since the 3 weeks will be combined.
  • Jan beans will be top step (spot month) tomorrow.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out tomorrow with their Malaysia Oct 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • November options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CDT  
  • Weekly COT report that was supposed to come out on Oct 4th will come out tomorrow at 230. This will be fund positions as of Oct 1st. Over the next 2 weeks CFTC will release 4 of the COT reports that were missed due to US government shutdown . CFTC expects to be up to date by Nov 8th.
  • Elections in Argentina on Sunday.
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.

 

Thank you,