News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

If not now, when will you begin living your life?

– Jack Borland

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ½ at 1307 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 440
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 706 ½
  • KC WZ up 6 ½ at 772
  • MWZ up 6 ¾ at 763
  • SMZ up 1.90 at 418.00
  • BOZ up 13 at 4165
  • RRX down 4.50 at 1524

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,832
  • CZ 28,462
  • WZ 5,513
  • KC WZ 1,264
  • MWZ 413
  • SMZ 4,716
  • BOZ 6,251
  • RRX 22

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn up 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minn wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower. Dollar higher

 

Nikkei down 1.2%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down 1.2%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 3.0 MB expecting a build of 2.9 MB
  • Gas a draw of 510,000 expecting a draw of 300,000
  • Distillates a build of 815,000 expecting a draw of 1.8 MB

 

China grain closes – beans down 21, corn unchanged, meal up 3, palm oil up 30, bean oil down 6

 

Palm oil up 27 (2 month highs)

 

Positive crushing margins in China.

 

Weekly bean auctions in China are done for the year.

 

China sold 189,000 tons of wheat at today’s auction

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Dec-Jan shipment yesterday.

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for May shipment yesterday

 

Vietnam bought 400,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Jan –March shipment

 

Taiwan bought 60K Brazilian corn for Dec shipment

 

South Korea Daehan bought 54,600 US milling wheat for Feb/March shipment

 

South Korea Daehan bought 25,500 Canadian milling wheat for Feb shipment

 

In a private deal South Korea Kocopia  bought 55K US or South American origin corn for Feb shipment.

 

South Korea Nofi canceled tender for 140,000 optional origin corn for March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi canceled tender for 60K feed wheat optional origin for Feb shipment

 

Japan bought 49,830 tons of feed wheat and no barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 180K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Russia bought 27,405 tons of intervention grain , total on the year is 115,425 tons bought.

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at a record high 88.0 MMT, with a range of 86.0-90.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 88.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 45.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 42.5 MMT

 

Reuters poll – Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 25.3 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 22.1 MMT and vs. ABARES estimate of 24.5 MMT

 

Australia’s weather bureau forecast – Australia hotter and drier the next 3 months , could threaten wheat crops

 

Market talk of US bean yield about 43.0 BPA

 

Market talk of better than expected US corn yields.

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day at 1317 ½
  • WZ 200 day at 712
  • KC WZ 200 day at 762 ½
  • BOZ 50 day at 4229
  • SMZ 50 day at 416.30

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 724,913 open, up 5,510
  • Total corn 1,284,282 open, up 12,333
  • SX 187,565 open, down 9,595
  • SF 217,441 open, up 5,009
  • Total beans 652,337 open, down 2,577
  • SMZ 128,973 open, down 666
  • Total meal 277,522 open, up 254
  • BOZ 136,239 open, down 1,426
  • Total bean oil 322,561 open, down 1,410
  • WZ 232,497 open, down 301
  • Total wheat 374,945 open, up 2,857
  • KC WZ 90,514 open, down 1,161
  • Total KC wheat 158,166 open up 876

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CDT. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.7 MB
    • Gas a draw of 100,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Flash PMIs come out Thursday morning for China, France, Germany, and Eurozone.
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • US export sales for the week ending Oct 4th will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT.
  • Jan beans will be top step (spot month) on Friday.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Friday with their Malaysia Oct 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • November options expire on Friday at 115 pm CDT  
  • US export sales for Oct 4-Oct 24th will come out Thursday Oct 31st at 730 am CDT
  • Elections in Argentina on Sunday.
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.