News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Remember the past, plan for the future, but live for today, because yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come.

– Luke

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 9 ¼ at 1294
  • CZ down 1 ¼ at 442 ¾
  • WZ down 2 ¼ at 697 ½
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 759
  • MWZ down 2 ¼ at 749 ½
  • SMZ down 3.50 at 412.20
  • BOZ down 8 at 4156
  • RRX down 2.50 at 1523.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,000
  • CZ 9,453
  • WZ 3,604
  • KC WZ 561
  • MWZ 128
  • SMZ 4,247
  • BOZ 10,906
  • RRX 318

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minn wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 3-4 lower
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude, and stock market higher. Dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up .2%
Hang Seng down .5%

Shanghai Index down .7%

 

September US unemployment report came out this morning

  • September nonfarm payrolls at +148K expecting +180K
  • September unemployment rate at 7.2% expecting 7.3%
  • August nonfarm payrolls revised to +193K from +169K

 

Chinese grain markets – beans down 14, corn down 3, meal up 14, palm oil down 14, and bean oil down 52

 

Palm oil up 18

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Association said Oct 1-20th palm oil production is down 10.5% from a month ago

 

Algeria bought 150K optional origin durum wheat for Nov/Dec shipment

 

Taiwan BSPA bought 120K US beans for Jan-March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 140K optional origin feed corn for March shipment

 

South Korea Nofi seeks 60K optional origin feed wheat for Feb shipment

 

South Korea has bought a total of 10 cargoes of corn for Feb shipment and has bought a total of 3 cargoes of corn for March shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1-2 cargoes of US beans yesterday

 

TALK Europe is buying/seeking US meal for Dec-Jan shipment

 

India buying Malaysia palm oil cargoes for nearby shipment

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global production of 8 major oil meal products at 280.8 MMT vs. 268.8 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global exports of 8 major oil meal products at 84.2 MMT vs. 79.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global ending stocks of 8 major oil meal products at 10.3 MMT vs. 9.1 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global soymeal production at 187.8 MMT vs. 178.4 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global soymeal exports at 60.9 MMT vs. 57.1 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global ending stocks at 8.6 MMT vs. 7.7 MMT a year ago

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Brazil ‘13/14 corn crop at 70.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Brazil ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Argentina ‘13/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Argentina ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Agritel estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 10.1 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 10/18 Russia has planted 79.5% of their winter grain crop on 13.0 MH vs. 15.5 MH a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 winter grain area at 14.0 MH vs. original estimate of 16.4 MH

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 10/18 56% of Brazilian corn planted vs. 49.4% a year ago

 

Ag Rural said as of 10/18 Brazil bean planting is 19% complete vs. 20% a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso, Brazil ‘13/14 corn planting area at 3.36 MH vs. 3.7 MH a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso , Brazil ‘13/14 corn crop at 16.3 MMT vs. 22.5 MMT a year ago

 

Parana, Brazil Secretary of Agriculture estimated ‘13/14 corn area at 699,000 hectares down 20% from a year ago

 

Midwest weather cold helpful for drying down corn . Mostly dry with some light showers in forecast for today.

 

Good precipitation in Brazil

 

More rain is needed in Argentina’s corn and bean areas

 

Black Sea region warmer and drier the next 2 weeks expected to boost crop prospects

 

KC Dec wheat 200 day moving average is 763 ¼

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 12th – Oct 18th total crush volume at 1,395,800 tons up 12.96% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 12th – Oct 18th total crush capacity utilization at 51.8% up 5.94% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st , 2013 – Oct 18th, 2013 at 3,284,100 tons up 31.55% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1, 2013 – Oct 18, 2013 at 50,281,660 tons up 7.38% from a year ago
  • As of Oct 18 total imported soybean stocks at 4.883 MMT down 232,300 tons from a week ago and down 20.15% from a year ago
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.562 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6.2-6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6-6.5 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.5-6.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.2-6.7 MMT
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 60% good to excellent up 5% from the week ending 9/29
  • Mature 94% vs. 100% a year ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Harvested 39% (Market expecting 35-40% complete , Reuters poll expecting 38-46% complete) vs. 85% a year ago and vs. 53% five year average

 

Beans

  • Condition 57% good to excellent up 4% from the week ending 9/29
  • Dropping leaves 94% vs. 98% a year ago and vs. 97% five year average
  • Harvested 63% (Market expecting 50-60% complete, Reuters poll expecting 55-72% complete) vs. 79% a year ago and vs. 69% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 65% good to excellent
  • Planted 79% vs. 80% a year ago and vs. 79% five year average
  • Emerged 53% vs. 48% a year ago and vs. 54% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Harvested 88% vs. 90% a year ago and vs. 86% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 44% good to excellent vs. 42% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 81% vs. 93% a year ago and vs. 92% 5 year average
  • Harvested 21% vs. 36% a year ago and vs. 34% 5 year average

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 719,796 open, up 3,208
  • Total corn 1,272,252 open, up 15,346
  • SX 197,477 open, down 7,816
  • SF 212,462 open, up 6,177
  • Total beans 655,259 open, up 4,236
  • SMZ 129,815 open, down 959
  • Total meal 276,872 open, up 1,384
  • BOZ 137,818 open, down 2,415
  • Total bean oil 324,125 open, up 584
  • WZ 232,840 open, down 2,921
  • Total wheat 372,134 open, up 106
  • KC WZ 91,855 open, down 2,167
  • Total KC wheat 157,479 open, down 1,113

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • EIA Nat Gas storage report for the week ending Oct 11th will come out today at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 PM CDT
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Flash PMIs come out Thursday morning for China, France, Germany, and Eurozone.
  • US export sales for the week ending Oct 4th will come out on Thursday at 730 am CDT.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Friday with their Malaysia Oct 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • November options expire on Friday at 115 pm CDT  
  • US export sales for Oct 4-Oct 24th will come out Thursday Oct 31st
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.