News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That’s why it’s called the present.

– Bil Keane

 

USDA reported 235K tons of beans sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 ¾ at 1293
  • CZ down 1 at 440 ½
  • WZ down 5 at 700 ¾
  • KC WZ down 3 ¾ at 765
  • MWZ down 3 ½ at 756 ¾
  • SMZ down .10 at 410.00
  • BOZ up 19 at 4187
  • RRX up 7.50 at 1536.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,118
  • CZ 10,535
  • WZ 13,198
  • KC WZ 1,068
  • MWZ 220
  • SMZ 4,047
  • BOZ 7,207
  • RRX 73

 

Opening calls

  • Beans – 1-3 higher
  • Corn steady – 2 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC Wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minn wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 6-8 higher

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher. Crude lower.

 

Nikkei up .9%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai index up 1.6%

 

Palm oil up 36 (1 ½ month highs)

 

Indonesia to keep palm oil export tax unchanged at 9% in November

 

China grain markets – beans up 6, corn up 1 , meal down 22, palm oil up 154, bean oil up 104

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports at 1.05 MMT up 8% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports at 1.026 MMT up 3% from a month ago

 

TALK Brazil was seeking US HRW wheat for Nov shipment on Friday

 

TALK China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Jan-Feb shipment on Friday
TALK on Friday China bought US SRW wheat

 

Tunisia bought 75K milling wheat and 67K durum wheat on Friday

 

On Friday Argentina Ag Min said corn planting is 19% complete vs. 34% a year ago

 

On Friday Argentina Ag Min said sunseed planting is 19% complete vss. 39% a week ago

 

Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade estimated India’s ‘13/14 summer oilseed output at 16.9 MMT up 11% from a year ago due to the best monsoon rains in over the past 10 years

 

Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade estimated India’s ‘13/14 palm oil production at 110K tons vs. 80K tons a year ago

 

Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade estimated India’s ‘13/14 veg oil production at 5.8 MMT up 10% from a year ago

 

Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade estimated India’s ‘13/14 bean production at 10.2 MMT down 4.4% from a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado on Friday estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at a record 89.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.2 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado on Friday estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 45 MMT up 6% from a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 10/18 17.8% of Brazil’s bean crop has been planted vs. 6.7% a week ago

 

Oil World on Friday said Brazil may raise biodiesel blend rate to 7% vs. 5% currently

 

CNGOIC said there will be no Chinese bean auction this week as the government prepares to stockpile domestic harvest.

 

Argentina Ag Min last week estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 wheat crop at 8.8 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 12.0 MMT and vs. other analyst estimates of 10-11 MMT

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s Oct grain exports at 2.6-2.7 MMT vs. 2.93 MMT in September

 

Weekly COT report was delayed on Friday. Market estimated fund positions as of Oct 18th (futures and options combined)

  • Wheat short 15K
  • Corn short 143K
  • Beans long 126K
  • Meal long 59K
  • Bean oil short 26K

 

Good harvest weather in Midwest this week .

 

Cold and dry weather in parts of Argentina wheat areas may damage wheat crop

 

Central Argentina needs more rain only light rain in forecast next 7 days

 

Central China needs more rain only light rain in forecast next 7 days

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1287 ¾

 

Dec wheat 200 day moving average is 713 ½

 

Dec KC wheat 200 day 763 ½

 

Dec bean oil 50 day is 4235

 

Dec meal 50 day is 413.30

 

Chinese customs data – September imports

  • Wheat – 718,482 tons up 37.1% from a year ago
    • 684,125 tons from the US up 207.75% from a year ago
  • Barley – 336,602 tons up 67.61% from a year ago
  • Corn – 1,537 tons down 99.6% from a year ago
  • Rice –  142,664 tons down 38.99% from a year ago
  • Soybean – 4,698,848 tons down 5.41% from a year ago
    • 3.6 M from Brazil up 52.09% from a year ago
    • 580,079 tons from Argentina down 46.65% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 232,820 tons up 26.1% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 78,276 tons down 40.54% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 32,275 tons down 12.65% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 95,522 tons down 63.5% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 500 tons up 53.85% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 468,501 tons down 11.9% from a year ago

 

Chinese customs data – January – September imports

  • Wheat – 2,842,152 tons down 11.59% from a year ago
    • 1.64 MMT from the US up 213.73% from a year ago
  • Barley – 1,719,123 tons down 16.7% from a year ago
  • Corn – 1,606,850 tons down 60.92% from a year ago
  • Rice – 1,714,818 tons down 8.55% from a year ago
  • Soybean – 45,754,096 tons up 3.27% from a year ago
    • 27.544 M from Brazil up 23.59% from a year ago
    • 3.59 M from Argentina down 14.85% from a year ago
    • 12.52 M from the US down 23.88% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 2,523,119 tons up 24.14% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 1,260,832 tons up 50.33% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 50,764 tons down 88.6% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 792,669 tons down 25% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 13,383 tons down 68.76% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 4,342,147 tons up 11.18% from a year ago

 

Weekly US export sales report for the week ending September 26th (came out Friday afternoon)

  • Wheat – 837,800 tons (expecting 500-750K)
  • Corn – 775,200 tons (expecting 500-700K)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 860,700 tons ‘14/15 43,000 tons (expecting 800K – 1.1 M)
  • Meal – ‘12/13 10,800 ‘13/14 317,000 tons (expecting 170-380K)
  • Bean oil – ‘12/13 1,500 ‘13/14 – 1,000 (expecting 10-25K)

 

Export highlights for the week ending September 26th

  • Wheat – Net sales of 837,800 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 35 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (124,600 MT), Guatemala (112,600 MT), Taiwan (92,400 MT), Chile (76,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (74,500 MT), and the Philippines (73,800 MT). Decreases were reported for China (1,600 MT). Exports of 836,800 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (181,400 MT), Japan (146,400 MT), Chile (76,800 MT), Brazil (62,600 MT), Thailand (46,400 MT), and Guatemala (45,400 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 775,200 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico (271,100 MT), Colombia (210,300 MT, including 4,300 MT switched from Mexico), China (115,200 MT, including 112,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (39,600 MT, including 38,900 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 100,100 MT), and Costa Rica (37,000 MT). Exports of 546,200 MT were primarily to Japan (163,200 MT), Mexico (158,800 MT), China (115,200 MT), Guatemala (31,600 MT), and Costa Rica (29,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 860,700 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for China (408,100 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 248,000 MT), unknown destinations (164,600 MT), Germany (75,400 MT, including 74,500 MT switched from unknown destination), and Thailand (71,000 MT). Net sales of 43,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 390,300 MT were primarily to China (239,600 MT), Germany (75,400 MT), Indonesia (38,900 MT), and Mexico (23,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 10,800 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (6,900 MT, including 5,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (6,700 MT), El Salvador (4,200 MT, switched from Guatemala), Canada (3,300 MT), and Belgium (1,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (6,200 MT), Guatemala (4,300 MT), and Venezuela (2,500 MT). Net sales of 317,000 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily to unknown destinations (178,000 MT), Mexico (35,200 MT), Morocco (30,000 MT), and Venezuela (27,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Saudi Arabia (1,000 MT). Exports of 77,000 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (22,500 MT), Canada (16,300 MT), Mexico (11,500 MT), Guatemala (8,000 MT), and Japan (7,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (1,100 MT) and Nicaragua (500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (300 MT). Net sales reductions of 1,000 MT for 2013/2014 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 8,800 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mozambique (4,900 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), and Nicaragua (500 MT).

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 716,833 open, up 6,655
  • Total corn 1,257,056 open, up 12,326
  • SX 206,654 open, down 13,346
  • Total beans 652,403 open, down 1,833
  • SMZ 130,794 open, down 1,265
  • Total meal 275,512 open, up 1,719
  • BOZ 140,277 open, down 1,131
  • Total bean oil 323,585 open, up 8,355
  • WZ 235,795 open, up 5,514
  • Total wheat 371,983 open, up 8,145
  • KC WZ 94,115 open, up 1,508
  • Total KC wheat 158,692 open, up 3,876

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Today, DOE #s and ethanol plant production for the week ending Oct 11th will come out at 930 am CDT.
  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT
    • Corn harvest expecting 35-40% complete
    • Bean harvest expecting 50-60% complete
  • US unemployment report for September will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • EIA Nat Gas storage report for the week ending Oct 11th will come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 PM CDT
  • Flash PMIs come out Thursday morning for China, France, Germany, and Eurozone.
  • US export sales for the week ending Oct 4th will come out on Thursday at 730 am CDT.
  • November options expire on Friday at 115 pm CDT  
  • US export sales for Oct 4-Oct 24th will come out Thursday Oct 31st
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.