News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The best way to prepare for life is to begin to
live.

– Elbert Hubbard

 

USDA announced 140,000 US beans sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced 222,000 US beans sold to China for ‘13/14 shipment-

 

Market believes these are sales from yesterday , There was talk China bought 6 cargoes of US beans yesterday for Dec/Jan shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with 2014 US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were

  • 2014 all wheat acres at 56.7 MA vs. USDA 2013 acres estimate of 56.5 MA
  • 2014 corn acres at 92.7 MA vs. USDA 2013 acres estimate of 97.4 MA
  • 2014 bean acres at 83.6 MA vs. USDA 2013 acres estimate of 77.2 MA
  • 2014 cotton acres at 11.218 MA vs. USDA 2013 acres estimate of 10.337 MA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ¼ at 1298 ½
  • CZ up 2 ½ at 445 ½
  • WZ up 10 ½ at 696 ½
  • KC WZ up 12 ½ at 761 ½
  • MWZ up 11 ½ at 756 ½
  • SMZ up 1.30 at 414.30
  • BOZ up 29 at 4141
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1547.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,035
  • CZ 8,097
  • WZ 9,630
  • KC WZ 2,124
  • MWZ 262
  • SMZ 6,330
  • BOZ 9,963
  • RRX 72

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-10 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 9-11 higher
  • KC wheat 11-13 higher
  • Minn wheat 10-12 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Gold, silver, and dollar lower. Crude and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .2%

Hang Seng up 1.1%

Shanghai index up .2%

 

China’s 3rd quarter GDP came out this morning at +7.8% as expected vs. 2nd quarter of +7.5%

 

US government to put out September unemployment number on Tuesday at 730 am CDT . Hearing they postponed October unemployment number until Nov 8th.

 

Palm oil up 3

 

China grain closes – beans up 12, corn down 4, meal up 21, palm oil down 6, bean oil down 12

 

Philippines bought 40K US meal yesterday off the Gulf for Jan shipment

 

Israel bought 80K Black Sea origin corn for Dec- Feb shipment

 

Israel bought 25K Black Sea origin feed wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

South Korea bought 23K US milling wheat for Feb March shipment

Hearing European meal users meal needs are not covered for Nov and Dec

 

Malaysia and Indonesia bought 35K US wheat this week

 

Singapore bought 20K US wheat this week

 

Malaysia seeks 60K corn for Jan shipment

 

Philippines seeks 80K Australian feed wheat for Jan shipment

 

China private importers eyeing Australian wheat

 

Better than expected corn and bean yields still being reported in the US.

 

Santos Brazil port facility caught on fire this morning, used to store sugar and ethanol for export.

 

Weekly US export sales report for the week ending Oct 9th did not come out this morning. USDA said yesterday that they will make an announcement today about when export sales reports will start to come out again. Estimates for the report were

  • Wheat 550-850K,  some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for wheat are 1.2-1.8 MMT
  • Corn 650-850K,  some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for corn are 2.0- 3.0 MMT
  • Beans 950K – 1.1 MMT  some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for wheat are 2-3 M
  • Meal 150-250K some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for meal are 600K -1.0 M
  • Bean oil 5-20K some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for bean oil are 10-15K

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop report

  • Corn planting 18.5% complete vs. 13.6% a week ago and vs. 31.8% a year ago
  • Corn area estimated at 3.46 MH
  • Sunflower planting 33.2% complete vs. 29.2% a week ago and vs. 37.7% a year ago
  • Sunflower area estimated at 1.63 MH
  • Estimated wheat crop at 10.35 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and up 17.6% from a year ago

 

Good harvest weather in the Midwest

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1312

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1288

 

Minn wheat  100 day is 754 ½

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 413.40

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 710,297 open, up 172
  • Total corn 1,244,756 open, down 81
  • SX 220,708 open, down 8,980
  • Total beans 654,987 open, up 1,701
  • SMZ 132,206 open, up 1,286
  • Total meal 273,926 open, up 5,915
  • BOZ 141,462 open, down 686
  • Total bean oil 315,315 open, up 4,335
  • WZ 230,293 open, down 693
  • Total wheat 363,862 open, up 185
  • KC WZ 92,652 open, down 385
  • Total KC wheat 154,808 open, up 109

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report has been delayed
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with Malaysia Oct 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • On Monday DOE #s and ethanol plant production for the week ending Oct 11th will come out.
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
    • Corn harvest expecting 33-38% complete
    • Bean harvest expecting 50-60% complete
  • Flash PMIs come out Thursday Oct 24th
  • November options expire on Friday, October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.

 

Thank you,