News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Harmony makes small things grow, lack of it makes great things decay

Sallust

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ¼ at 1281 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 444 ½
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 687 ¼
  • KC WZ up 4 ¾ at 749 ½
  • MWZ up 4 ½ at 747
  • SMZ up 2.00 at 405.80
  • BOZ up 11 at 4148
  • RRX down .5 at 1544

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,443
  • CZ 13,767
  • WZ 6,227
  • KC WZ 638
  • MWZ 152
  • SMZ  8,617
  • BOZ 12,354
  • RRX 116

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minn wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold and silver higher. Crude, dollar, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.2%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up .4%

 

US Senate passes debt deal

 

US government reopened. – We do not know when reports will start coming out yet.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out today at – 15K to 358K expecting 330K

 

Weekly API energy inventory report did come out yesterday.

  • Crude a build of 5.9 MB expecting a build of 2.2 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.2 MB expecting a build of 100,000
  • Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB expecting a draw of 1.6 MB

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage , DOE energy inventory and US ethanol plant production report will NOT come out this morning .

 

USDA to make a decision by tomorrow whether to cancel the October USDA report.

 

China grain markets – beans down 20, corn down 3, meal down 13, palm and bean oil up 72

 

Palm oil down 9

 

China sold 281,783 tons of beans at today’s auction. 56.3% of what was offered.

 

TALK China and Mexico have bought 750,000 tons – 1.0 M tons of US corn this week for early 2014 shipment

 

TALK China has bought up to 20 cargoes of US beans over the past week

 

TALK China still eyeing US beans

 

TALK China bought 2-4 Argentine new crop bean cargoes this week

 

Hearing China Sinograin bought 2-4 South American bean oil cargoes for April May shipment

 

TALK EU needs to import meal for Nov Dec shipment

 

TALK China has bought a few cargoes of US meal

 

TALK China bought US corn yesterday.

 

Shanghai JC Intelligence said China has bought 1.2 MMT of US corn this month

 

TALK China bought 300,000 tons of US corn Monday and Tuesday for Jan- March shipment

 

Rumor from yesterday regarding Mexico banning GMO corn. They banned GMO corn production NOT GMO imports.
Taiwan BSPA bought 60K US beans for Feb March shipment

 

India seeks 10K Malaysian or Indonesian origin palm oil for Oct shipment

 

South Korea seeks 23K US milling wheat for Feb March shipment

 

TALK Japan switching Brazilian corn cargoes back to US corn

 

TALK exporters are seeking US bean oil

 

Japan bought 112,031 tons of milling wheat for Nov Jan shipment . Breakdown

  • 25,757 tons of US western white
  • 20,294 tons of HRW US
  • 33,682 of Canadian western red spring
  • 32,298 tons of Australian white

 

 

Concerns about a possible strike at Canada’s biggest railway

 

Paraguay’s president vetoed a law for a 10% export tax on soybeans

 

Ukraine and Russian weather remains favorable

 

We are not sure if the USDA will put out export sales for the week ending Oct 9th tomorrow  . Estimates were

  • Wheat 550-850K some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for wheat are 1.2-1.8 MMT
  • Corn 650-850K some analysts saying 3.0 M some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for corn are 3.0 MMT
  • Beans 950K – 1.1 MMT  some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for wheat are 2-3 M
  • Meal 150-250K some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for meal are 600-800K
  • Bean oil 5-20K some analysts saying since the government shutdown exports for bean oil are 10-15K

 

Nov beans 200 day moving average is 1273 ¼

 

Nov beans 100 day moving average is 1287 ½

 

Minneapolis wheat 100 day moving average is 755

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 710,012 open, down 1,597
  • Total corn 1,224,642 open, up 7,153
  • SX 229,884 open, down 7,636
  • Total beans 653,197 open, up 11,879
  • SMZ 131,139 open, up 361
  • Total meal 268,247 open, up 249
  • BOZ 142,322 open, down 2,046
  • Total bean oil 311,298 open, up 5,454
  • WZ 231,096 open, down 4,149
  • Total wheat 363,834 open, down 3,094
  • KC WZ 93,437 open, down 438
  • Total KC 155,099 open, down 174

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out tomorrow. Expecting +7.8% vs. +7.5% in the second quarter
  • Weekly US export sales report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT we do not know if they will come out.
  • Informa comes out tomorrow with 2014 US acreage estimates and production estimates
  • Weekly COT report tomorrow at 230 pm CDT . We do not know if this report will come out
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg