News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Things do not happen. Things are made to happen.
John F. Kennedy

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 ½ at 1272 ½
  • CZ up 1 at 444 ½
  • WZ up a ½ at 686 ¼
  • KCWZ down a ¼ at 756
  • MWZ  up 1 ¾ at 752
  • SMZ up 1.00 at 403.40
  • BOZ up 35 at 4101
  • RRX down 1 at 1547

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,117
  • CZ 17,445
  • WZ 4,499
  • KCWZ 511
  • MWZ  167
  • SMZ 4,267
  • BOZ 8,486
  • RRX 91

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady to 2 higher
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold, silver, stock market higher. Crude and dollar lower.

 

Negotiations in Washington continue ahead of the deadline on federal borrowing limit. US Lawmakers said they are close to a deal

 

US government still shutdown.

 

Nikkei up .2%

Hang Seng down .5%

Shanghai Index down 1.81%

 

Chinese grain closes- beans down 10, corn down 6, meal down 15, palm oil up 16, bean oil up 36, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed meal down 20, rapeseed oil up 48

 

Palm oil up 42 (5 week high)

 

Malaysia keeps Nov palm oil export tax unchanged from October at 4.5%

 

Cargo surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports at 799,853 tons up 11.8% from a month ago

 

Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports at 781,043 tons up 6.6% from a month ago

 

TALK China has bought up to 300,000 tons of US corn this week for Jan – March 2014 shipment.

 

TALK China buying/seeking US corn for April – May shipment

 

Earlier this month Chinese private buyers bought 450K tons of US corn

 

Some saying China has bought 1.2 MMT US corn for Feb forward shipment .

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US soybeans yesterday

 

Hearing China bought new crop South American origin soybeans yesterday.

 

COFCO estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 3-5 MMT vs. other analysts estimate of 10.0 MMT

 

Market talk US 2013 corn yield at 160+ BPA

 

Market talk US 2013 bean yield at 43.0 BPA

 

Japan canceled SBS tender for 180K tons of feed wheat and 200K tons of feed barley for Jan shipment

 

Japan issues new SBS tender for 180K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for Jan shipment

 

Israel seeks 80K tons of optional origin corn for Dec- Feb shipment

 

Israel seeks 25K tons of optional origin feed wheat for Nov Dec shipment

 

Turkey tenders to sell 190K tons of corn for Nov-Jan shipment

 

Iraq bought 100K tons of rice from the US, Argentina, and Uruguay.

 

Talk of record large canola crop in Canada

 

Russia bought 29,970 tons of intervention grain. Total of 58,050 tons of intervention grains bought.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.83 MMT of grain between July 1st – Oct 10th vs. 2.21 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan has harvested 19.99 MMT of grain on 15.08 MH (95.8% of total area) with an average yield of 1.33 TPH a year ago the average yield was .94 TPH

 

Rains today in the Midwest.  Midwest is dry Thursday into next week

 

National Weather Service said risk of frost this morning and tomorrow morning in southern NE and central KS

 

More rains needed in west central Brazil . Light scattered showers in forecast for the next 7 days

 

More rains needed in most of Argentina’s main corn and bean areas. Light scattered showers in forecast for the next 7 days

 

Dry weather was needed in Russia and Ukraine. Dry weather in forecast the next 7 days

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1273 ¼

 

Dec wheat 100 day moving average is 676 ½

 

KC Dec wheat 200 day moving average is 765

 

Yesterday ADM bought 10,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 2-2 ¼ . Open interest coming in this morning was 79,611 open, up 10,380 (this indicates that this was a new position for ADM) . A total of 14,993 Dec 400 puts traded yesterday.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 711,825 open, down 301
  • Total corn 1,237,607 open, up 5,296
  • SX 237,658 open, down 7,423
  • Total beans 641,934 open, down 3,576
  • SMZ 130,867 open, down 1,096
  • Total meal 265,663 open, down 274
  • BOZ 144,464 open, down 4,705
  • Total bean oil 305,958 open, down 4,874
  • WZ 235,389 open, down 3,809
  • Total wheat 367,175 open, down 3,017
  • KC WZ 93,914 open, up 634
  • Total KC wheat 155,341 open, up 968

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report scheduled to come out today at 330 pm CDT will not come out due to US government shutdown
  • China to auction 500K beans from reserves tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT will not come out due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory and ethanol plant production report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 10 am CDT will not come out due to US government shutdown.
  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out on Friday. Expecting +7.8% vs. +7.5% in the second quarter
  • Weekly US export sales report scheduled to come out Friday at 730 am CDT will not come out due to US government shutdown.
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October
  • USDA Nov crop production report to come out on Nov 8th at 11 am CDT.

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg