News From The Grain Floor

Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer, but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past. Let us accept our own responsibility for the future.
John F. Kennedy

 

NOPA September crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT. Expecting

  • Crush average estimate of 106.4 MB (9 year low) , range of estimates are 103-111 MB in August crush was 110.502 MB and in Sept 2012 crush was 119.732 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate of 1.473 B lbs , range of estimates are 1.285-1.630 B . August bean oil stocks were 1.669 B and September 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.043 B
  • No estimate is given for meal exports but in August meal exports were 306,684 tons

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 ¾ at 1268 ¼
  • CZ up ¾ at 437 ¾
  • WZ down 2 at 690 ½
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 759 ¼
  • SMZ down 3.30 at 404.10
  • BOZ  up 24 at 4063
  • RRX unchanged at 1515.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,365
  • CZ 8,670
  • WZ 3,879
  • KC WZ 447
  • SMZ 4,671
  • BOZ 9,844
  • RRX 34

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn steady to 1 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 2-3 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Crude, gold, silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .2%

Hang Seng up .6%

Shanghai Index down .1%

 

Signs US government shutdown is close to being resolved – Senate said they are close to an agreement to reopen US government – Hopes US will reach budget/debt ceiling deal

 

Malaysian markets closed today for holiday.

 

China grain markets – beans up 8, corn down 4, meal down12, palm oil up 4, bean oil up 2.

 

Some analysts saying China has bought 2.0-2.5 MMT of US beans since October 1st when  US government shutdown
TALK Chinese crushers bought some cargoes of US beans of the PNW yesterday for Jan shipment

 

TALK of China seeking US beans for April – July shipment

 

TALK Argentina government may limit wheat exports to 2-3 MMT

 

Japan seeks 112,031 tons of milling wheat for Nov Jan shipment . Breakdown

  • 25,757 tons of US western white
  • 20,294 tons of HRW US
  • 33,682 of Canadian western red spring
  • 32,298 tons of Australian white

 

Chinese customs data showed (yesterday) that China imported 570,000 tons of veg oils in September

 

Russia bought 28,080 tons of intervention grain , first intervention tender this year.

 

Ukraine stats office said Oct 1st grain stocks at 19.0 MMT down 2% from a year ago including 2.3 MMT of wheat, 2.4 MMT of corn, 2.9 MMT of barley, and 500K tons of rye.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Oct 15th winter grain planted on 5.99 MH or 73% of total area. A year ago Ukraine planted winter grain on 7.192 MH.

 

Excellent US corn yields being reported .

 

Better than expected US bean yields being reported. – Talk of US corn yield above 160.0 BPA

 

20,000 cattle feared dead in South Dakota after storm.

 

Heavy rains in western and northern Midwest the next 2 days may delay harvest.

 

Brazil forecast calls for cool temps and rains , delaying planting but improving conditions for developing crops

 

Argentina dry until this weekend helping planting progress but dry soil may delay planting

 

Ukraine and Russia winter wheat conditions have improved – dry , rains in forecast later this week

 

Drier weather in India to help with soybean harvest. Harvest has been delayed due to heavy rains

 

Dry in Chinese wheat areas , rains are needed, no rains in forecast until Oct 20th

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 5th – 11th total crush volume at 1,235,600 tons up 1.83% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 5th – 11th total crush capacity utilization at 45.86% up .87% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st, 2013 – Oct 10th 2013 at 1,888,300 tons vs. 1,260,416 tons a year ago
  • Total crush volume for the year Oct 1st, 2012 – Sept 30th 2013 was estimated at 62,576,210 tons vs. 60,903,975 tons (up 2.74%) from a year earlier
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st , 2013 – Oct 10th, 2013 at 48,885,860 tons up 7.23% from a year ago
  • As of Oct 11th China’s imported soybean stocks at 5.2352 down 352,300 tons from a week ago and down 13.96% from a year ago
  • Estimated October soybean imports at 4.562 MMT below the previous estimate of 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 6-6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2 – 6.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.15 MMT
  • Estimated Jan 2014 bean imports at 5.5 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT

 

Moving averages

  • SX 200 day 1273 ½ .
  • SX 100 day 1287 ½
  • KC WZ 200 day 765 ½

 

Weekly US export inspections report will be put out by the Federal Grains Inspection Service today at 10 am CDT. Expecting

  • Wheat 29-35 MB
  • Corn 19-23 MB
  • Beans 40-55 MB

 

Weekly US crop progress report scheduled to come out today at 3 pm CDT. This report will not come out do to US government shutdown.

  • Based on a Reuters survey of 14 analysts the average estimate for bean harvest is 45% complete. The range of estimates were 35-72% complete a week ago the average estimate was 22% complete a year ago was 71% complete and the average is 58% complete
  • Based on a Reuters survey of 12 analysts the average estimate for corn harvest was 31% complete. The range of estimates were 25-40% complete a week ago the average estimate was 20% complete a year ago corn harvest was 79% complete and the average is 42% complete

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 712,218 open, down 1,721
  • Total corn 1,232,316 open, up 5,773
  • SX 246,035 open, down 2,584
  • Total beans 646,511 open, up 7,042
  • SMZ 132,044 open, down 152
  • Total meal 266,076 open, up 1,250
  • BOZ 149,267 open, down 3,675
  • Total bean oil 311,072 open, down 1,294
  • WZ 239,233 open, down 466
  • Total wheat 370,233 open, up 606
  • KC WZ 93,335 open, up 124.
  • Total KC wheat 154,377 open, up 163

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT due to US holiday on Monday. If US government is still shutdown API will not be put out .
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE numbers will come out Thursday at 10 am CDT due to US holiday on Monday. If US government is still shutdown this report will not come out
  • China to auction 500K beans from reserves on Thursday
  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out on Friday
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg