News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

I never had a policy; I have just tried to do my very best each and every day.
Abraham Lincoln

 

Today is the last trading day for October futures. Futures expire at noon CDT. Open interest in October meal is 92 and open interest in October bean oil is 43.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ¾ at 1270 ½
  • CZ down 1 at 432 ¼
  • WZ down 4 ¾ at 687 ½
  • KC WZ down 4 ¾ at 754 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 405.00
  • BOZ up 12 at 4040
  • RRX up 6 at 1517.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,291
  • CZ 8,754
  • WZ 6,897
  • KC WZ 602
  • SMZ 5,568
  • BOZ 8,693
  • RRX 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn steady to 1 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC Wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher.

 

Shanghai Index up .5%

 

Japan and Hong Kong markets closed today for holiday .

 

China’s Sept CPI +3.1% on the year expecting +2.8-+3.0% and vs. +2.6% in August

 

China’s Sept PPI – 1.3% less than expected vs. – 1.6% in August

 

China Sept imports +7.4% expecting +6.75% and vs. +7% in August

 

China Sept exports – .3% expecting +5.5% and vs. August of +7.2%

 

China’s Sept trade surplus at $15.2 B expecting a surplus of $27 B and vs. a surplus of $28.52 B in August

 

US government still on partial shutdown – Concerns over the possibility of a US debt default

 

China grain markets – beans down 16,corn up 8, meal down 37, palm oil up 46, bean oil down 22.

 

Palm oil down 17

 

Chinese customs data came out this weekend. China imported 4.7 MMT of beans in September down 5.4% from a year ago and down 26.2% from a year ago .

 

Chinese customs data showed China imported 45.75 MMT of beans between Jan – September up 3.3% from a year ago

 

TALK private Chinese bought 10 cargoes of 600K tons of US corn for Jan – March shipment over the last 2 weeks

 

TALK China bought 200-250,000 tons of US beans on Friday

 

TALK China bought 10-15 bean cargoes from the US last week for Dec Jan shipment

 

Mexico and Columbia were pricing US corn on Friday

 

Indonesia exported 1.64 MMT of palm oil in September up 11% from a month ago

 

Indonesia exported 15.31 MMT of palm oil between Jan – Sept vs. 11.54 MMT a year ago

 

Weekly COT report did not come out on Friday. Market’s fund position estimates including options as of 10/11/13 are

  • Wheat short 18K
  • Corn short 150K
  • Beans long 114K
  • Meal long 55K
  • Bean oil short 32K

 

Weekly US export inspections report scheduled to come out tomorrow due to US holiday . GIPSA estimated export inspections at

  • Wheat 29-35 MB
  • Corn 19-23 MB
  • Beans 40-55 MB

 

Weekly US crop progress report scheduled to come out tomorrow due to US holiday today. If US government still shutdown report will not come out . Analysts expecting bean harvest to be 40-51% complete vs. 71% a year ago and vs. average of 58% . Analysts expecting corn harvest to be 25-30% complete vs. 79% a year ago and vs. 42% average.

 

Better than expected bean yields still being reported in US

 

CNGOIC – China’s 2013 crop estimates

  • Corn crop at 214.0 MMT up 4.6% from a year ago
  • Rice crop at 203.0 MMT down .7% from a year ago
  • Wheat crop at 122.2 MMT up 1.1% from a year ago
  • Bean crop at 12.5 MMT down 4.2% from a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Friday estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean planting area at 20.2 MH (record) up 2.5% from a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer said on Friday that France has planted 23% of their 2014 soft wheat crop vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 12% a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer said on Friday that 2% of France’s corn harvest is complete vs. 14% a year ago

 

Good Midwest harvest weather over the next 2 weeks. Some rains in forecast , but mostly dry weather.

 

Rains in Brazil Friday and Saturday helped dry areas but delayed planting .

 

Brazilian forecast is favorable the next 2 weeks.

 

Heavier than expected rains in Argentina , but more rains area needed

 

Russia and Ukraine dry forecast through late this week. Dry weather is needed in the Black Sea region.

 

Index fund roll is over.

 

43 bean oil deliveries with the date at 10/10/13

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India September veg oil imports

  • Palm oil imports at 644,386 tons up 20.6% from a month ago
  • Total veg oil imports at 863,917 tons up 14% from a month ago
  • Sunflower oil imports at 48,498 tons down 39% from a month agao

 

Reuters survey of 5 analysts from Friday for India’s September veg oil imports estimates

  • Palm oil imports estimated at 614,000 tons
  • Bean oil imports estimated at 152,000 tons
  • Sunflower oil imports estimated at 66,000 tons
  • Edible oil imports estimated at 854,000 tons
  • Veg oil imports estimated at 881,000 tons

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 715,311 open, down 2,361
  • Total corn 1,227,847 open, up 4,367
  • SX 248,828 open, down 4,818
  • Total beans 639,778 open, up 8,583
  • SMZ 132,321 open, down 5,303
  • Total meal 264,955 open, up 1,204
  • BOZ 153,051 open, down 3,873
  • Total bean oil 312,515 open, up 1,347
  • WZ 239,746 open , up 2,467
  • Total wheat 369,672 open, up 3,496
  • KC WZ 93,242 open , up 849
  • Total KC wheat 154,351 open, up 1,376

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Malaysia markets closed tomorrow
  • Weekly US export inspections report (if it comes out) will come out on Tuesday at 10 am CDT due to US holiday on Monday
  • Weekly US crop progress report (if it comes out) will come out on Tuesday at 3 pm CDT due to US holiday on Monday – corn harvest looking for 25-30% complete vs. 43% average and bean harvest looking for 35-45% complete vs. 56% average
  • NOPA September crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT . Based on a Reuters survey
    • Crush expecting average estimate of 106.4 MB (9 year low) , range of estimates are 103-111 MB in August crush was 110.502 MB and in Sept 2012 crush was 119.732 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate of 1.473 B lbs , range of estimates are 1.285-1.630 B . August bean oil stocks were 1.669 B and September 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.043 B
    • No estimate is given for meal exports but in August meal exports were 306,684 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out on Wednesday at 330 pm CDT due to US holiday on Monday. If US government is still shutdown API will not be put out .
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports on Wednesday
  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out on Oct 18th
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg