News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

“Loyalty to country ALWAYS.  Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”

–          Mark Twain

 

USDA October Crop Production report that was scheduled to come out today, has been delayed due to US government shutdown. No makeup date for the report has been given. Some analysts believe there will not be an October report and the government will just wait until November.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¼ at 1281 ¾
  • CZ down 4 at 434 ¼ low overnight was 433 – new 3 year low
  • WZ up 1 ¼ at 686 ¾
  • KC WZ up 3 at 758 ½
  • SMZ down .70 at 408.90
  • BOZ down 39 at 4083
  • RRX down 5 at 1518

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,564
  • CZ 13,970
  • WZ 5,420
  • KC WZ 898
  • SMZ 5,898
  • BOZ 14,361
  • RRX 35

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil  35-45 lower
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude oil, and dollar lower . Stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.6%

Hang Seng up 1.3%

Shanghai Index up .9%

Most world stock markets are higher.

 

Reuters story – Signs of US budget progress . Hopes of budget deal in Washington

 

Palm oil down 11

 

China grain market closes – beans unchanged, corn up 3, meal down 63, palm oil up 40, and bean oil up 8

 

Good Chinese crushing margins

 

TALK China bought 6-10 cargoes of US beans this week

 

TALK China’s private importers are eyeing US corn for March 2014 forward shipment

 

TALK China was eyeing US beans from the Gulf for December shipment and US beans of the PNW for January shipment yesterday

 

South Korea Kocopia canceled tender for 55K optional origin corn for Feb shipment due to high prices.

 

Japan bought 101,892 tons of milling wheat for Nov-Jan shipment Breakdown

  • 7,500 tons of western white US wheat
  • 9,830 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 21,690 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 31,223 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 31,730 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Japan seeks 57K food wheat and 35K food barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

United Arab Emirates bought 30K India milling wheat

 

China to buy 1.0 MMT of rice from Thailand over the next 5 years

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 10th 82.4 MMT of grain crop has been harvested on 37.3 MH (84.7% of total area) with an average yield of 2.21 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 70.4 MMT of grain on 37.7 MH with an average yield of 18.8 TPH

 

Russia’s customs data showed that Russia exported 6.3 MMT of wheat between Jan – Aug vs. 10.291 MMT a year ago

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 87.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 50 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.5 MMT

 

Above average US bean yields being reported
TALK of US corn yield above 160.0 BPA

 

2014 US HRW wheat conditions are improving due to recent rains

 

Good US harvest weather thru Sunday , some showers in forecast for weekend.

 

Heavier rains in forecast for Midwest next week

 

Rains in Brazil

 

Dry in Argentina’s corn , bean, and northern wheat area next 7 days , rains are needed.

 

Ukraine and Russian conditions improving dry and warmer the next 5-7 days

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

Today is the last day of other index funds roll. Rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina’s crop report

  • ’13/14 wheat crop estimated at 10.35 MMT (first estimate for this season) vs. USDA estimate of 12.0 MMT and vs. 5 year average of 11.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat planting area estimated at 3.62 MH vs. 3.37 MH a year ago
  • ‘12/13 wheat crop estimated at 8.8 MMT (2nd smallest crop in 13 years) down 6.4% from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 corn planting 13.6% complete vs. 8% a week ago
  • ‘13/14 corn planting area estimated at 3.46 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 sunflower planting 29.2% complete vs. 23.5% a week ago and vs. 35.4% a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • SX 100 day 1287
  • SX 200 day 1273 ¾
  • WZ 100 day 677 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 717,852 open, up 1,756
  • Total corn 1,223,624 open, up 7,608
  • SX 253,709 open, down 6,955
  • Total beans 631,319 open, up 6,901
  • SMV 347 open, down 385
  • SMZ 137,707 open, down 2,766
  • Total meal 263,834 open, up 3,624
  • BOV 97 open, down 133
  • BOZ 156,705 open, down 3,382
  • Total bean oil 310,949 open, up 7,801
  • WZ 237,227 open, down 3,147
  • Total wheat 366,113 open, down 2,354
  • KC WZ 92,542 open, down 590
  • Total KC wheat 153,177 open, up 1,087

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT – probably will be delayed due to government shutdown
  • Official China trade data comes out on Saturday
  • Monday is Columbus Day. Currency and Financial pits are closed. Grains and Globex are open normal hours
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • Malaysia markets closed on Tuesday Oct 15th
  • Weekly US export inspections report (if it comes out) will come out on Tuesday at 10 am CDT due to US holiday on Monday
  • Weekly US crop progress report (if it comes out) will come out on Tuesday at 3 pm CDT due to US holiday on Monday – corn harvest looking for 25-30% complete vs. 43% average and bean harvest looking for 35-45% complete vs. 56% average
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports on Oct 16th
  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out on Oct 18th
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg