News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The natural cure for an ill-administration, in a popular or representative constitution, is a change of men.”

Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 21, 1787

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Nov shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 7 ¾ 1295 ½
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 445
  • WZ up 3 ½ at 694
  • KC WZ up 2 ¾ at 761 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.90 at 413.60
  • BOZ up 30 at 4097
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1511

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 24,532
  • CZ 6,513
  • WZ 5,120
  • KC WZ 848
  • SMZ 5,678
  • BOZ 10,386
  • RRX 85

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn 1-2 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold, silver, and crude lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.1%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down .9%

 

US government still on partial shutdown.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +66K to 374K expecting 312K – 15,000 of jobless claims increase were due to government shutdown

 

Palm oil up 19

 

Chinese grain markets – bean up 27, corn up 8, meal down 4, palm oil up 48 , and bean oil  up 22

 

China sold 263,678 tons of beans at today’s auction. 52.25% of what was offered

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their September palm oil report

  • Palm oil output at 1.91 MMT vs. average estimate of 2.0 MMT and vs. Aug output of 1.74 MMT
  • Palm oil exports at 1.605 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.55 MMT and vs. Aug exports of 1.52 MMT
  • Palm oil stocks at 1.78 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.91 MMT and vs. August 1.67 MMT

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports at 542,274 tons up 17% from Sept 1-10th

 

Surveyor SGS will come out later on today with their Malaysia Oct 1-10th palm oil exports estimates

 

Positive China crushing margins

 

TALK China is buying or seeking US corn

 

Rumors Brazil eyeing US HRW wheat

 

Colombia and Venezuela are seeking US corn for early 2014 shipment

 

Black Sea area corn is cheaper than US

 

Paraguay government approves 10% bean export tax . Beans are Paraguay’s main export but the government also approved a 10% export tax on corn and wheat.

 

Paraguay Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 9.3 MMT unchanged to higher than ‘12/13 record crop .

 

Russia deputy Prime Minister estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 85-90 MMT

 

Russia Prime Minister and Ag Minister estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 90 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min estimated winter grain area at 14.0 MH

 

Russia Prime Minister estimated winter grain area at 14.5 MH

 

Australian Crop Forecasters estimated 2013 wheat crop at 25.9 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 25.5 MMT

 

Good harvest weather in Midwest through Saturday. Rains in forecast Sun-Wed

 

Ukraine and Russian weather improving – warmer and drier into next week

 

119 bean oil deliveries with the date at 10/08/13

 

No meal deliveries

 

Today is the 4th day of the Goldman Sachs roll . They are rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. Roll ends tomorrow

 

Today is the 4th day of other index funds roll. They are rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan. Roll ends tomorrow

 

Strategie Grains EU28 ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Soft wheat crop estimated at 135.2 MMT previous was 135.5 MMT
  • Soft wheat exports estimated at 22.2 MMT previous estimate was 21.9 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 64.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 64.0 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 59.3 MMT vs. previous of 59.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 grain area estimated at 56.7 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 57.3 MH
  • ‘14/15 oilseed area estimated at 12.1 MH vs. 12.2 MH a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1300 ¼
  • SX 100 day 1286 ½
  • KC WZ 200 day at 767 ½

 

1305 ¾ is Nov bean recent high

 

Weekly US export sales report did not come out today due to government shutdown. The estimates for the exports were

  • Wheat 300-900K
  • Corn 600K – 1.4 M
  • Beans 400K – 1.025 M
  • Meal 150-250K
  • Bean oil 0-30K

 

There will be no USDA crop production report tomorrow . We do not know when or if the Oct production report will come out. Here are the estimates for the report that was due out tomorrow.

 

Estimates for US corn and bean productions

  • Corn production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.802 BB, range of estimates are 13.483 – 14.150 BB. USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and USDA 2012 final corn production was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 156.533 BPA, range of estimates are 152.9 – 159.4 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and USDA 2012 final corn yield was 123.400 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.142 MA , range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and USDA 2012 final corn harvested acres was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.156 BB, range of estimates are 3.079-3.201 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and USDA 2012 final bean production was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.548 BPA , range of estimates are 40.4-42.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 41.2 BPA and USDA 2012 final soybean yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.933 MA, range of estimates are 75.1 – 76.98 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 76.378 MA and USDA 2012 final bean harvested acres were 76.10 MA

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .400-.575 BB and USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.923 BB, range of estimates are 1.644 – 2.160 BB and USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .167 BB, range of estimates are .125-.195 BB and USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.020 MMT, range of estimates are 173.00-178.00 MMT and USDA September estimate was 176.280 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.567 MMT, range of estimates are 140.15 – 156.3 MMT and USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.164 MMT, range of estimates are 71.1-74.24 MMT and USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 716,352 open, down 4,389
  • Total corn 1,216,191 open, up 724
  • SX 260,705 open, down 14,480
  • Total beans 624,560 open, up 1,476
  • SMV 732  open , down 400
  • SMZ 140,616 open, down 6,163
  • Total meal 260,353 open, down 2,597
  • BOV 230 open, down 322
  • BOZ 160,438 open, down 1,395
  • Total bean oil 303,499 open, up 515
  • WZ 240,449 open, up 1,736
  • Total wheat 368,554 open, up 2,484
  • KC WZ 93,202 open, up 953
  • Total KC wheat 152,248 open, up 2,039

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT – probably will be delayed due to government shutdown
  • Official China trade data comes out on Saturday
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • China’s 3rd quarter GDP comes out on Oct 18th
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,