News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

If you don’t start somewhere, you’re gonna go nowhere.

Bob Marley

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 at 1286 ¾
  • CZ unchanged at 441 ¾
  • WZ down 2 ¼ at 691 ¼
  • KC WZ down 1 ½ at 759
  • SMZ down 2.10 at 412.80
  • BOZ up 5 at 4048
  • RRX unchanged at 1475.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,769
  • CZ 7,443
  • WZ 4,175
  • KC WZ 216
  • SMZ 6,060
  • BOZ 8,186
  • RRX 138

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice steady

 

Crude, gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 1%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

US government still shut down.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 2.8 MB expcting a build of 1.5 MB
  • Gas a draw of 2.8 MB expecting a build of 1.3 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB expecting a draw of 1.2 MB

 

Palm oil up 19

 

Chinese grain market closes – beans down 4, corn up 3, meal down 19, palm oil up 28, bean oil up 66, rapeseed up 32, rapeseed meal up 10, rapeseed oil up 48.

 

Positive Chinese crushing margins.

 

Report on Reuters said Private China trading firm bought 420,000 tons of US corn last week for May-July shipment. There were rumors China bought up to 900K tons of US corn last week for Jan- March shipment

 

Hearing China bought a few cargoes of US beans of the PNW for Dec /Jan shipment Monday and or Tuesday

 

Iraq seeks 10K any origin sunflower oil

 

CONAB came out this morning with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crop production.

  • Beans estimated at 87.6 – 89.7 MMT (record) vs. USDA estimate of 88.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 81.5 MMT
  • Total corn crop estimated at 78.4 -79.6 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 72.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 79.6 MMT
  • Wheat crop estimated at 4.77 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.95 MMT

 

FranceAgriMer ‘13/14 estimates

  • France soft wheat exports outside the EU estimated at 11.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT and up 13% from a year ago
  • France corn ending stocks estimated at 2.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.5 MMT and up 9.4% from a year ago

 

Japan canceled SBS tender for 180K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 180K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

TALK US corn yields are 20-30 BPA higher than USDA September’s estimate of 155.3 BPA

 

TALK US bean yields are 10-12 higher than USDA September’s estimate of 41.2 BPA

 

Analysts expecting corn market to make news lows due to reports of good to exceptional corn yields

 

Canada exported 1.434 MMT of wheat in August vs. 1.290 MMT in July and vs. 1.104 MMT a year ago

 

Romania Farmers League estimated Romania’s 2013 corn crop at 9.0 MMT vs. 5.95 MMT in 2012

 

Romania Farmers League estimated Romania’s 2013 corn yield at 4.0 TPH

 

Good Midwest harvest weather for the next 3 days. Rains return to forecast Friday – Sunday .

 

Ukraine and Russia weather forecast warmer and drier

 

Scattered showers in forecast today for Argentina

 

Southern Brazil has rain in the forecast

 

Northern Brazil is dry with no rain in forecast

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. GS roll ends Friday

 

Other index funds are rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan. Their roll will end on Friday as well.

 

168 bean oil deliveries with the date at 10/04

 

No meal deliveries

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1285 ¾

 

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1247

 

Dec KC wheat 200 day moving average is 768

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 721,019 open, up 2,283
  • Total corn 1,215,659 open, up 8,942
  • SX 275,606 open, down 10,145
  • Total beans 623,852 open, up 7,900
  • SMV 1,132 open, down 969
  • SMZ 146,844 open, down 6,751
  • Total meal 261,760 open, down 6,513
  • BOV 552 open, down 182
  • BOZ 161,878 open, down 5,291
  • Total bean oil 303,029 open, up 98
  • WZ 238,752 open, up 703
  • Total wheat 366,130 open, up 685
  • KC WZ 92,396 open, down 382
  • Total KC wheat 150,340 open, up 785

 

 

USDA crop production scheduled to come out on Friday has been delayed due to US government shutdown. No new release date was given. There has been some chatter that the USDA will not even put out October report and wait until November.  Reuters did put out estimates for the report.

 

Estimates for US corn and bean productions

  • Corn production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.802 BB, range of estimates are 13.483 – 14.150 BB. USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and USDA 2012 final corn production was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 156.533 BPA, range of estimates are 152.9 – 159.4 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and USDA 2012 final corn yield was 123.400 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.142 MA , range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and USDA 2012 final corn harvested acres was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.156 BB, range of estimates are 3.079-3.201 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and USDA 2012 final bean production was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.548 BPA , range of estimates are 40.4-42.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 41.2 BPA and USDA 2012 final soybean yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.933 MA, range of estimates are 75.1 – 76.98 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 76.378 MA and USDA 2012 final bean harvested acres were 76.10 MA

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .400-.575 BB and USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.923 BB, range of estimates are 1.644 – 2.160 BB and USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .167 BB, range of estimates are .125-.195 BB and USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.020 MMT, range of estimates are 173.00-178.00 MMT and USDA September estimate was 176.280 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.567 MMT, range of estimates are 140.15 – 156.3 MMT and USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.164 MMT, range of estimates are 71.1-74.24 MMT and USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.4 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.1 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • China will auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow morning with their September palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey
    • Palm oil output estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. Aug of 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.55 MMT vs. Aug of 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks estimated at 1.91 MMT (6 month high) vs. August 1.67 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out tomorrow morning with their Malaysian Oct 1-10th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly US jobless claims will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report will not come out due to partial US government shutdown
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg