News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Keep your face always toward the sunshine – and shadows will fall behind you.”
― Walt Whitman

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¼ at 1298 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 447
  • WZ up 3 ¾ at 698 ½
  • KC WZ up 5 ½ at 762
  • SMZ up .10 at 420.80
  • BOZ up 26 at 4016
  • RRX down .5 at 1482

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,984
  • CZ 13,673
  • WZ 6,481
  • KC WZ 831
  • SMZ 6,979
  • BOZ 12,700
  • RRX 17

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC Wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar, stock market, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower.

 

US government still on partial shutdown.

 

China is back from holiday.

 

Nikkei up .3%

Hang Seng up .9%

Shanghai Index up 1.1%

 

Palm oil up 33.

 

Chinese grain markets – beans up 30, corn up 7, meal up 78 ( record high) , palm oil up 122, bean oil down 20, rapeseed unchanged, rapeseed meal up 46, rapeseed oil down 48

 

JCI said good crushing margins in China

 

JCI said China imported 4.9 MMT of beans in September vs. 6.36 MMT of beans in August

 

JCI estimated Chinese Nov bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

JCI estimated Chinese Dec bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Xinhu Futures said China soymeal stocks are at a 3-4 month low
TALK from yesterday continues – China bought up to 900K tons of US beans for Jan – Feb shipment. – NOT confirmed

 

Japan seeks 101,892 tons of milling wheat for Nov-Jan shipment Breakdown

  • 7,500 tons of western white US wheat
  • 9,830 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 21,690 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 31,223 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 31,730 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Taiwan BSPA bought 60K Brazilian beans for April shipment

 

Taiwan BSPA canceled tender to buy 40-60K US beans off the Gulf for Jan shipment due to high prices. Taiwan BSPA said they may buy US beans in containers ($10 cheaper a metric ton) for Jan shipment

 

Hearing Mexico bought wheat from Canada for March –May shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20K any origin sunflower oil for Nov Dec shipment

 

Reports continue of better than expected US corn yields

 

I thought CONAB was supposed to come out this morning with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops, but CONAB does not come out until tomorrow.  USDA estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.0 MMT and estimated ‘13/14 Brazil corn crop at 72.0 MMT

 

Analysts said India could export 5 MMT of meal in ‘13/14 up 25% from ‘12/13

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 7th 81.3 MMT of grain has been harvested on 36.6 MH (83% of total area) with an average yield of 2.22 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 68.0 MMT of grain on 36.7 MH with an average yield of 1.85 TPH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said 50% of their winter grain crop has been planted due to dry weather over the weekend

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 15.0 MMT down 7.0 M from ‘13/14 estimate

 

Ukraine Ag estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 6-7 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 9-10 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of 10/08 Kazakhstan has harvested 18.527 MMT of grain on 14.207 MHJ (90.2% of total area) with an average yield of 1.3 TPH a year ago Kazakhstan harvested 14.153 MMT of grain, 99.2% of total area with an average yield of .93 TPH

 

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They have been rolling long Nov 2013 beans to Nov 2014.

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Their roll ends on Friday. They are rolling long Nov bean positions to Jan beans

 

Other Index funds are rolling Dec bean oil and meal to Jan bean oil and meal.

 

Dry Midwest weather for the rest of the week , helping harvest progress.

 

Concerns about Black Sea region wheat areas . Drier forecast for Ukraine and western Russia next 10 days

 

Weather improving slightly in South America

 

150 bean oil deliveries with the date at Oct 4th

 

No meal deliveries

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1297

 

Dec KC wheat 200 day moving average is 768 ½

 

109 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM

 

94 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL

 

20 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

French Farm Ministry 2013 France crop estimates

  • Soft wheat estimated at 36.873 MMT down 117,000 tons from previous estimate and vs. 2012 crop of 35.530 MMT
  • Durum estimated at 1.752 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 2.381 MMT
  • Barley estimated at 10.354 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 11.341 MMT
  • Oats estimated at 431,000 tons vs. 2012 crop of 401,000 tons
  • Corn estimated at 15.483 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.6 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 15.046 MMT
  • Oilseeds estimated at 6.220 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 7.181 MMT
  • Rapeseed estimated at 4.347 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 5.463 MMT
  • Sunseed estimated at 1.721 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 1.572 MMT
  • Soybean estimated at 113,000 tons vs. 104,000 tons a year ago

 

USDA crop production scheduled to come out on Friday has been delayed due to US government shutdown. No new release date was given.  Reuters did put out estimates for the report.

 

Estimates for US corn and bean productions

  • Corn production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.802 BB, range of estimates are 13.483 – 14.150 BB. USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and USDA 2012 final corn production was 10.780 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 156.533 BPA, range of estimates are 152.9 – 159.4 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and USDA 2012 final corn yield was 123.400 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.142 MA , range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and USDA 2012 final corn harvested acres was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.156 BB, range of estimates are 3.079-3.201 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and USDA 2012 final bean production was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.548 BPA , range of estimates are 40.4-42.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 41.2 BPA and USDA 2012 final soybean yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.933 MA, range of estimates are 75.1 – 76.98 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 76.378 MA and USDA 2012 final bean harvested acres were 76.10 MA

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .400-.575 BB and USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.923 BB, range of estimates are 1.644 – 2.160 BB and USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .167 BB, range of estimates are .125-.195 BB and USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.020 MMT, range of estimates are 173.00-178.00 MMT and USDA September estimate was 176.280 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.567 MMT, range of estimates are 140.15 – 156.3 MMT and USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.164 MMT, range of estimates are 71.1-74.24 MMT and USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 718,884 open, down 1,896
  • Total corn 1,206,838 open, up 4,102
  • SX 286,721 open, down 10,809
  • Total beans 616,917 open, up 1,305.
  • SMV 2,101 open, down 625
  • SMZ 153,669 open, down 2,016
  • Total meal 268,348 open, up 1,469
  • BOV 734 open, down 787
  • BOZ 167,274 open, down 2,711
  • Total bean oil 303,067 open, up 1,476
  • WZ 238,131 open, up 2,638
  • Total wheat 365,520 open, up 4,460
  • KC WZ 92,887 open, down 689
  • Total KC wheat 149,664 open, up 323

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • China will auction 500K tons of beans from reserves on Thursday.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Thursday morning with their September palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey
    • Palm oil output estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. Aug of 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.55 MMT vs. Aug of 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks estimated at 1.91 MMT (6 month high) vs. August 1.67 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out on Thursday morning with their Malaysian Oct 1-10th palm oil export estimates.
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg