News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Without deep reflection one knows from daily life that one exists for other people.
Albert Einstein

Today is the first day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. GS roll ends Friday.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¼ at 1293 ¾
  • CZ up ¾ at 444
  • WZ up 4 ¾ at 691 ¾
  • KC WZ up 4 ¼ at 754 ½
  • SMZ up .10 at 418.50
  • BOZ down 15 at 4009
  • RRX up 3 at 1490

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,493
  • CZ 13,491
  • WZ 5,186
  • KC WZ 511
  • SMZ 4,918
  • BOZ 5,815
  • RRX 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market is lower. Gold and silver are higher.

 

Nikkei down 1%

Hang Seng down .7%

 

Palm oil up 13

 

Chinese markets return from holiday tonight/tomorrow

 

Rosario Grains Exchange is closed today for holiday

 

US partial government shutdown continues. There was no weekly COT report on Friday and there will be no weekly US export inspections or crop progress reports today.

 

Debt ceiling debate continues – Government needs to raise the debt ceiling by Oct 17th

 

TALK that Brazil bought more HRW Wheat on Friday

 

TALK the EU was seeking Argentine bean oil on Friday
TALK China was pricing US soybeans off the Gulf for Dec shipment on Friday

 

Iraq seeks 50K wheat from the US, Canada, Black Sea region, Australia, and Germany.

 

Algeria seeks 50K optional origin milling wheat for Dec shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin milling wheat for Feb – April

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin feed barley for March – May

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

On Friday Informa also estimated 2014 US acreage

  • Corn at 92.7 MA vs. Informa’s 2013 acreage estimate of 95.8 MA and vs. USDA 2013 estimate of 97.4 MA
  • Beans at 83.6 MA vs. Informa’s 2013 acreage estimate of 76.8 MA and vs. USDA 2013 estimate of 77.2 MA
  • Barley at 6.9 MA vs. Informa’s 2013 acreage estimate of 5.9 MA and vs. USDA 2013 acreage estimate of 6.6 MA

 

Safras e Mercado said on Friday

  • Brazilian bean planting is 2.8% complete vs. 3.0% a year ago and vs. 2.4% average
  • Parana bean planting is 12% complete vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 6.4% average
  • Brazilian corn planting is 30% complete vs. 27% a year ago
  • Rio Grande corn planting is 57% complete vs. 62% a week ago
  • Mato Grosso corn planting is 2% complete vs. 3.4% average

 

IMEA said as of 10/04/13 Mato Grosso, Brazil planted 1.4% of their bean crop vs. 8.6% a yar ago

 

Abiove expects Mato Gross to produce 30% of Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop of 86.0 MMT

 

Somar expects normal amounts of rainfall in mid-October

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 winter grain planting area at 13.0-13.5 MH vs. 16.4 MH a year ago

 

SovEcon said Russia ‘13/14 winter grain crop may be 7-7.5 MMT lower than ‘12/13 crop

 

IKAR estimated 2014 Russia winter wheat losses at 3.5-11.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.0-1.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 6.3 MMT of grain between July- Oct up 11.4% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 294,830 tons of oilmeal in September vs. 144,987 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 173,381 tons of soymeal in September vs. 6,525 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 1.65 MMT of oilmeal between April – September up 1.2% from a year ago

 

104 new bean oil deliveries on Friday afternoon out of Bunge Milling Danville IL. Total bean oil receipts registered is 10,024 tons

 

There were 758 bean oil deliveries with the date current , House Bunge issued 180 .

 

No meal deliveries

 

Reports about better than expected US bean and corn yields continue

 

Weekly US crop progress report will be delayed today due to government shutdown. Private analysts are expecting 18-20% of the US corn crop to be harvested vs. 12% a week ago vs. 69% a year ago and vs. 28% average . Expecting 19-25% of the US bean crop to be harvested vs. 11% a week ago vs. 58% a year ago and vs. 40% five year average.

 

Rains in Midwest over the weekend delayed US corn and bean harvest

 

Warmer and drier Midwest weather this week to allow farmers to make good harvest progress

 

Russia and Ukraine drier and cooler forecast for this week to allow winter grain plantings

 

Rains have slowed Brazil’s sugar and grain exports over the past 2 weeks

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1295 ¼

 

Nov bean 100 day moving average is 1284 ½

 

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. The roll ends tomorrow. DB has been rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014

 

Weekly COT report did not come out on Friday . Analysts estimated Fund positions futures and options combined at

  • Wheat short 19K
  • Corn short 145,400
  • Beans long 130K
  • Meal long 65K
  • Bean oil short 35,600

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CZ 720,829 open, down 3,164
  • Total corn 1,202,742 open, up 510
  • SX 298,383 open, down 8,020
  • Total beans 616,572 open, down 1,043
  • SMV 2,726 open, down 724
  • SMZ 155,859 open, down 148
  • Total meal 267,054 open, up 3,020
  • BOV 1,521 open, down 690
  • BOZ 170,058 open, down 1,086
  • Total bean oil 301,668 open, down 185
  • WZ 235,581 open, down 430
  • Total wheat 361,164 open, down 249
  • KC WZ 93,629 open, down 411
  • Total KC wheat 149,397 open, down 112

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report scheduled to come out today at 10 am CDT will be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly US crop progress report scheduled to come out today at 3 pm CDT will be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Thursday morning with their September palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey
    • Palm oil output estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. Aug of 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.55 MMT vs. Aug of 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks estimated at 1.91 MMT (6 month high) vs. August 1.67 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out on Thursday morning with their Malaysian Oct 1-10th palm oil export estimates.
  • USDA crop report comes out on Friday speculation this report will be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • November options expire on October 25th
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg