News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.

James Dean

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • US corn crop estimated at 13.889 BB vs. FC Stone estimate of 14.15 BB and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 13.843 BB
  • US corn yield estimated at 157.6 BPA vs. FC Stone estimate of 158.7 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 155.3 BPA
  • US bean crop estimated at 3.224 BB vs. FC Stone estimate of 3.163 BB and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 3.149 BB
  • US bean yield estimated at 42.4 BPA vs. FC Stone estimate of 41.4 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 41.2 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ½ at 1282 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ¼ at 404 ½
  • WZ down ¾ at 688 ½
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 753 ¼
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 414.10
  • BOZ down 19 at 4008
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1492.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 5,374
  • CZ 5,138
  • WZ 4,883
  • KC WZ 1,471
  • SMZ 2,663
  • BOZ 3,987
  • RRX 18

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 1-2 higher
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal  1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-3 higher

 

Gold, crude, dollar, and stock market higher. Silver lower.

 

Nikkei down .9%

Hang Seng down .3%

 

China is still on holiday today and Monday. Trading resumes Tuesday.

 

Today is the fourth day of the US government shutdown. US unemployment report will be delayed. Weekly COT report will be delayed. More chatter that the USDA October crop production report on October 11th will be delayed.

 

Palm oil up 15.

 

TALK US has exported 500K tons of soymeal to the EU over the past 2 weeks – analysts

 

South Korea canceled tender for 140K optional origin corn for March shipment, expect prices to fall further

 

South Korea has bought 185K tons of corn for March shipment and 50K tons of corn for Feb shipment this week.

 

Taiwan BSPA seeks 120K US or Brazilian beans for Jan and April shipment

 

Hearing Brazil bought 200,000 tons of US hard wheat for Nov-Dec shipment this week

 

Hearing Brazil has bought 3.0 MMT of US wheat so far this year

 

Brazil seeks hard red winter wheat for Nov shipment

 

Philippines bought 45K tons of Black Sea origin wheat for Nov shipment this week

 

Indonesia and Malaysia corn needs covered through Dec – needs not covered for Jan

 

Vietnam has its corn needs covered through February

 

Morocco bought 16,500 tons of domestic barley

 

Reports continue of better than expected US corn and bean yields.

 

Hearing US exported about 40.0 MMT of beans in September vs. 97.0 MMT in Sept 2012

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn planting area at 3.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.6 MH

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that Argentina has planted 8% of their corn crop vs. 17% a year ago

 

Protests yesterday at Rosario, Argentina port yesterday

 

Soybean Processors Association of India estimated 2013 soybean crop at 12.98 MMT up 2.4% from a year ago

 

Soybean Processors Association of India said India has planted soybeans on 12.22 MH up 14.3% from a year ago

 

Coceral estimated 2013 EU28 soft wheat crop at 135.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 130.7 MMT

 

Coceral estimated 2013 EU28 corn crop at 65.39 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.2 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 wheat crop 15.0 MMT vs. 2013 estimate of 22.0 MMT due to heavy rains

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 winter wheat planted area at 6.2-6.3 MH vs. previous estimate of 7.0 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine’s yearly domestic wheat consumption is 12.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of 9/30/13 Ukraine has planted winter wheat on 2.2 MH or 32% of total area and year ago Ukraine planted winter wheat on 4.6 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 winter wheat stocks at 3.5 MMT up 1.5 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 corn area at 5.5-5.7 MH vs. 4.8 MH a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 29.0 MMT (record ) vs. 2012 crop of 20.9 MMT

 

Analysts said 2014  Black Sea region wheat crop may be down 17.0 MMT from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Oct 3rd Russia had harvested 80.0 MMT of grain on 36.1 MH (78.3% of total area) with average yields at 2.19 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 68.0 MMT of grain on 36.7 MH with an average yield of 1.85 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Oct 4th Kazak had harvested 17.484 MMT of grain on 13.494 MH (85.7% of total area) with an average yield of 1.3 TPH. A year ago Kazak had harvested 14.04 MMT of grain , 99% of total area, with an average yield of .92 TPH

 

Rains this weekend in the Midwest to slow harvest

 

Midwest forecast for next week is drier- good for harvest , later next week rains are back in the forecast for north central US

 

Rains in Brazil

 

South Argentina winter wheat areas received beneficial rains and is warmer

 

Northern Argentina dry no rains in forecast next 7 days

 

Russian and Ukrainian forecast warming and drier next 5-7 days

 

Rains in Russia and Ukraine have been delaying winter wheat planting and summer crop harvesting

 

Today is the 3rd day of the Deutsche Bank roll. The Roll ends on Tuesday. DB is rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1293 ¾

 

Nov bean 100 day is 1283 ½

 

Nov bean 200 day is 1274

 

110 new ethanol receipts registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM

 

Stats Canada came out this morning with 2013 Canadian crop estimates. Expecting

  • All wheat at  33.026 MMT vs. average estimate 32.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 30.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 27.21 MMT
  • Durum at 5.579 MMT vs. average estimate 5.7 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 5.12 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.63 MMT
  • Canola at 15.963  MMT vs. average estimate 16.6 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 14.73 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.87 MMT
  • Oats at 3.163 MMT vs. average estimate 3.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 2.91 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.81 MMT
  • Soybeans at 4.817  MMT vs. average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 4.798 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.93 MMT
  • Corn at  12.943 MMT vs. average estimate 13.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 13.08 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.06 MMT
  • Barley at 9.247 MMT vs. average estimate 9.5 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 8.81 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 8.01 MMT
  • Flaxseed at 664,000   tons vs. average estimate 668,000 tons vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 615,000 tons and vs. 2012 crop of 489,000 tons

 

Argentina’s September exports – Argentine exporters

  • Bean exports at 1.1 MMT vs. 1.8 MMT in August and vs. 627,000 tons in Sept 2012
    • Beans to China at 900,000 tons vs. 1.1 MMT a month ago and vs. 870,000 tons a year ago
  • Soymeal at 2.5 MMT vs. 2.82 MMT in August and vs. 1.7 MMT a year ago
  • Bean oil 460,000 tons vs. 528,000 tons in August and vs. 440,000 tons a year ago

 

Argentina’s March – Sept exports – Argentine exporters

  • Beans 7.967 MMT up 20% from a year ago
    • Beans to China at 5.355 MMT up 14% from a year ago
  • Soymeal at 215.915 MMT up 8.4% from a year ago
  • Bean oil at 3.091 MMT up 27% from a year ago

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 775 with the date current
  • Ethanol 110 with the date current
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 724,420 open, up 1,062
  • Total corn 1,202,503 open up 8,197
  • SX 306,558 open, down 6,229
  • Total beans 617,823 open, up 1,157
  • SMV 3,450 open, down 1,313
  • SMZ 156,103 open, up 912
  • Total meal 264,147 open, up 3,070
  • BOV 2,214 open, down 2,227
  • BOZ 171,195 open, down 1,125
  • Total bean oil 301,907 open, down 819
  • WZ 236,374 open, up 1,316
  • Total wheat 361,886 open, up 3,448
  • KC WZ 94,139 open, down 20
  • Total KC wheat 149,815 open, up 408

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT – This report will probably be delayed also
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on Monday and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT – This report will probably be delayed also.
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Oct 10th with their September palm oil data report. In August
    • Palm oil output was 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports were 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks were 1.67 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out on Oct 10th with their Malaysian Oct 1-10th palm oil export estimates.
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th – if US government shutdown continues this report may be delayed.
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg