News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Tolerance is the last virtue of a dying society.” – Aristotle

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 9 ½ at 1283 ½
  • CZ up 3 ¼ at 442 ¼
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 691 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ½ at 758
  • SMZ up 3.70 at 415.40
  • BOZ up 33 at 3971
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1500

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,907
  • CZ 13,911
  • WZ 4,722
  • KC WZ 1,226
  • SMZ 7,236
  • BOZ 14,835
  • RRX 43

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-10 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market are lower this morning

 

Hang Seng up 1%

Nikkei down .1%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report +1K to 308K expecting 314K

 

Day 3 of the US government shutdown. USDA is shutdown. Weekly US export sales report is not coming out today and there is talk that the USDA October crop production report on October 11th will be delayed also. EPA decision of 2014 biodiesel mandate was delayed in September until October, but now may be delayed again due to US government shutdown.

 

China markets close for holiday . Trading resumes Tuesday Oct 8th.

 

Palm oil down 9

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60K Brazilian corn for Nov/Dec shipment

 

South Korea CJ Corp bought 240K tons of beans for Dec – March shipment . 2 cargoes from the US for Dec shipment and 2 cargoes from South America for Feb-March shipment

 

Philippines bought 40K US meal for Jan shipment
TALK Philippines seeking more US meal for Jan shipment

 

TALK China eyeing US beans for Feb/March shipment

 

Japan bought 118,456 tons of milling wheat for Nov- Jan shipment. Breakdown

  • 24,725 tons of US western white wheat
  • 18,130 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 29,649 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 45,952 tons of western red spring Canada wheat

 

Japan bought 55,640 feed wheat and 36,320 feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 180,000 feed wheat and 200,000 feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

TALK US selling meal to the EU.

 

TALK EU is seeking more US meal

 

TALK Brazil bought more US wheat on Tuesday

 

Ukraine and Russia wheat production may be less than expected due to excessive moisture

 

Strong wheat demand from China

 

US has already exported about 15.0 MMT of wheat so far this season (June – October) . USDA estimated total ‘13/14 US wheat exports at 29.9 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global cereal production at 2.489 billion tons down 3 million tons from previous estimate and up 8% from ‘12/13

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global cereal ending stocks at 559 MMT down 2% from previous estimate and up 12% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 704.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 709.8 MMT due to poor South American crops and excessive moisture in Black Sea area

 

Purdue Extension soybean expert said there are reports of green stem syndrome in some Indiana soybean fields

 

Better than expected bean and corn yields being reported in the US

 

We weather in US Midwest next 2-4 days may delay harvest.

 

TALK of frost in the Dakotas and Minnesota

 

Frost in forecast for New South Wales , Australia Friday and Saturday

 

Light rains in forecast today for Brazil’s corn and bean areas, dry and hot weather in the forecast for Friday and Saturday then rains back in the forecast for Sunday into early next week

 

Northern Argentina needs rain , very little rain is in the forecast for the next 7 days

 

Rains in the Ukraine and Russia yesterday

 

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll, 3 days remain. They are rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014.

 

2 corn receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL

 

1,608 new bean oil receipts registered yesterday afternoon . 1,033 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL and 575 out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

1,608 bean oil deliveries with the date at 9/30/13. Customer JP Morgan issued 1,608, ADM house stopped 60

 

No meal deliveries

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1292 ½
  • SX 100 day 1282 ½
  • SX 200 day 1274 ¼
  • WZ 100 day 679

 

Weekly US export sales report was delayed due to government shutdown. Expectations for export sales were

  • Wheat 500-750K
  • Corn 500-700K
  • Beans 800K – 1.1 MMT
  • Meal 170-380K
  • Bean oil 10-25K

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CZ 723,285 open, down 1,795
  • Total corn 1,194,221 open, up 11,469
  • SX 313,104 open, down 8,519
  • Total beans 617,099 open, up 228
  • SMV 4,763 open, down 1,233
  • SMZ 155,308 open, up 1,214
  • Total meal 261,232 open, up 1,912
  • BOV 4,441 open, down 566
  • BOZ 172,355 open,  down 6,820
  • Total bean oil 302,762 open, down 2,766
  • WZ 235,074 open, down 1,122
  • Total wheat 358,508 open, up 1,881
  • KC WZ 94,254 open, down 1,085
  • Total KC wheat 149,599 open, down 1,872

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +94 B
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with their 2013 US crop estimate updates . There previous estimates were
    • US corn crop at 13.889 BB
    • US corn yield at 157.6 BPA
    • US bean crop at 3.224 BB
    • US bean yield at 42.4 BPA
  • US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT – Unemployment may be delayed due to US government shutdown
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT with 2013 Canadian crop estimates. Expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 32.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 30.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 27.21 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 5.7 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 5.12 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.63 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 16.6 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 14.73 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.87 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 2.91 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.81 MMT
    • Soybeans average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 4.798 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.93 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 13.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 13.08 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.06 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 9.5 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 8.81 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 8.01 MMT
    • Flaxseed average estimate 668,000 tons vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 615,000 tons and vs. 2012 crop of 489,000 tons
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and lasts for 5 days they will be rolling long Nov positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Oct 8th with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Oct 10th with their September palm oil data report. In August
    • Palm oil output was 1.74 MMT
    • Palm oil exports were 1.52 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks were 1.67 MMT
  • USDA crop report comes out Oct 11th – if US government shutdown continues this report may be delayed.
  • Last trading day for Oct futures is Oct 14th. Futures expire at noon CDT
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Oct 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Elections in Argentina in October

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg